Here are some of my collection of newest trends and predictions for year 2018. I have not invented those ideas what will happen next year completely myself. I have gone through many articles that have given predictions for year 2018. Then I have picked and mixed here the best part from those articles (sources listed on the end of posting) with some of my own additions to make this posting.This article contains very many quotations from those source articles (hopefully all acknowledged with link to source).
The general trend in electronics industry is that the industry growth have been driven by mobile industry. Silicon content in smartphones and other mobile devices is increasing as vendors add greater functionality. Layering on top of that are several emerging trends such as IoT, big data, AI and smart vehicles that are creating demand for greater computing power and expanding storage capacity.
Manufacturing trends
According to Foundry Challenges in 2018 article the silicon foundry business is expected to see steady growth in 2018. The growth in semiconductor manufacturing will remain steady, but there will be challenges in the manufacturing capacity and expenses to move to the next nodes. For most applications, unless you must have highest levels of performance, there may not be as compelling a business case to focus on the bleeding-edge nodes. Over the last two years, the IC industry has experienced an acute shortage of 200mm fab capacity (legacy MCU, power, sensors, 6-micron to 65nm). In 2018, 200mm capacity will remain tight. An explosion in 200mm demand has set off a frenzied search for used semiconductor manufacturing equipment that can be used at older process nodes. The problem is there is not enough used equipment available. The profit margins in manufacturing are so thin in markets served by those fabs that it’s hard to justify paying current rising equipment prices, and newcomers may have a tough time making inroads. Foundries with fully depreciated 200mm equipment and capacity already are seeing increased revenues in their 200mm business.The specialty foundry business is undergoing a renaissance, thanks to the emergence of 5G and automotive.
300mm is expected to follow a similar path for lack of capacity because 300mm fabs already produce leading-edge chips and more mainstream 300mm demand is driven by MCUs, wireless communications and storage applications. Early predictions are for solid growth in 2018, fueled by demand for memory and logic at advanced 10/7nm.
In 2017, marking the first time that the semiconductor equipment market has exceeded the previous market high of US$47.7 billion set in 2000. Fab tool vendors found themselves in the midst of an unexpected boom cycle in 2017, thanks to enormous demand for equipment in 3D NAND and, to a lesser degree, DRAM. In 2018, equipment demand looks robust, although the industry will be hard-pressed to surpass the record growth figures in 2017. In 2018, 7.5 percent growth is expected to result in sales of US$60.1 billion for the global semiconductor equipment market – another record-breaking year. Demand looks solid across the three main growth drivers for fab tool vendors—DRAM, NAND and foundry/logic.
Rising demand for chips is hitting the IC packaging supply chain, causing shortages of select manufacturing capacity, various package types, leadframes and even some equipment. Spot shortages for some IC packages began showing up in 2017, but the problem has been growing and spreading since then, so packaging customers may encounter select shortages well into 2018. Apple Watch 3 shipment growth to benefit Taiwan IC packagers in 2018.
Market for advanced packaging begins to diverge based on performance and price. Advanced Packaging is now viewed as the best way to handle large amounts of data at blazing speeds.
Moore’s law
Many recent publications say Moore’s Law is dead. Though Moore’s Law is dead may be experiencing some health challenges, it’s not time to start digging the grave for the semiconductor and electronics market yet.
Even smaller nodes are still being taken to use in high end chips. The node names are confusing. Intel’s 10nm technology is roughly equivalent to the foundry 7nm node.In 2018, Intel is expected to finally ramp up 10nm finally in the first half of 2018. In addition, GlobalFoundries, Samsung and TSMC will begin to ship their respective 7nm finFET processes. On the leading edge, GlobalFoundries, Intel, Samsung and TSMC start migrating from the 16nm/14nm to the 10nm/7nm logic nodes. It is expected that some chip-makers face some challenges on the road. Time will tell if GlobalFoundries, Samsung and TSMC will struggle at 7nm. Early predictions are for solid growth in 2018, fueled by demand for memory and logic at advanced 10/7nm. 7nm is projected to generate sales from $2.5 billion to $3.0 billion in 2018. Over time 10nm/7nm is expected to be a big and long-running node. Suppliers of FPGAs and processors are expected to jump on 10nm/7nm.
South Korea’s Samsung Electronics said it has commenced production of the second generation of its 10nm-class 8-Gb DDR4 DRAM. Devices labeled 10nm-class have feature sizes as small as 10 to 19 nanometers. With the continued need for shrinking pattern dimensions, semiconductor manufacturers continue to implement more complex patterning techniques, such as advanced multi-patterning, for the 10nm design node and beyond. They also are investing significant development effort in readying EUV lithography for production at the 7/5nm design nodes. Samsung is planning to begin transitioning to EUV for logic chips next year at the 7nm node, although it is unclear when the technology will be put into production for DRAM.
There will be talk on even smaller nodes. FinFETs will get extended to at least to 5nm, and possibly 3nm in next 5 years. The path to 5nm loks pretty clear. FinFETs will get extended at least to 5nm. It’s possible they will get extended to 3nm. EUV will be used at new nodes, followed by High NA Lithography. New smaller nodes challenges the chip design as abstractions become more difficult at 7nm and beyond. Models are becoming more difficult to develop, integrate and utilize effectively at 10/7nm and beyond as design complexity, process variation and physical effects add to the number of variables that need to be taken into account. Materials and basic structures may diverge by supplier, at 7 nm and beyond. Engineering and scientific teams at 3nm and beyond will require completely different mixes of skills than today.
Silicon is still going strong, but the hard fact is that CMOS has been running out of steam for several nodes, and that becomes more obvious at each new node. To extend into new markets and new process nodes Chipmakers Look To New Materials. There are a number of compounds in use already (generally are being confined to specific niche applications), such as gallium arsenide, gallium nitride, and silicon carbide. Silicon will be supplemented by 2D materials to extend Moore’s Law. Transition metal dichalcogenides (TMDCs), a class of 2D materials derived from basic elements—principally tellurium, selenium, sulfur, and oxygen—are being widely explored by researchers. TMDCs are functioning as semiconductors in conjunction with graphene. Graphene, the wonder material rediscovered in 2004, and a host of other two-dimensional materials are gaining ground in manufacturing semiconductors as silicon’s usefulness begins to fade. Wide-bandgap semiconductor materials like gallium nitride (GaN) and silicon carbide (SiC) are anticipated to be used in many more applications in 2018. Future progress increasingly will require a mix of different materials and disciplines, but silicon will remain a key component.
Interconnect Materials need to to be improved. For decades, aluminum interconnects were the industry standard. In the late 1990s, chipmakers switched to copper. Over the years, transistors have decreased dramatically in size, so interconnects also have had to scale in size leading to roadblock known as the RC challenge. Industry is investing significant effort in developing new approaches to extend copper use and finding new metals. There’s also some investigation into improvements on the dielectric side. The era of all-silicon substrates and copper wires may be coming to an end.
Application markets
Wearables are a question mark. Demand for wearables slowed down in 2017 so much that smart speakers likely outsold wearable devices in 2017 holiday season. eMarketer is estimating that usage of wearable will grow just 11.9 percent in 2018, rising from 44.7 million adult wearable users in 2017 to 50.1 million in 2018. On the other hand market research firm IDC estimates that the shipments of wearable electronics devices are projected to more than double over the next five years as watches displace fitness trackers as the biggest sellers. IDC forecasts that wearables shipments will increase at a compound annual growth rate of 18.4 percent between 2017 and 2021, rising from 113.2 million this year to 222.3 million in 2021. At the same time fitness trackers are expected to become commodity product. Tomorrow’s wearables will become more fully featured and multi-functional.
The automotive market for semiconductors is shifting into high gear in 2018. Right now the average car has about $350 worth of semiconductor content, but that is projected to grow another 50% by 2023 as the overall automotive market for semiconductors grows from $35 billion to $54 billion. The explosion of drive-by-wire technology, combined with government mandates toward fully electric powertrains, has changed this paradigm—and it impacts more than just the automotive industry. Consider implications beyond the increasingly complex vehicle itself, including new demands on supporting infrastructure. The average car today contains up to 100 million lines of code. Self-driving car will have considerably more code in it. Software controls everything from safety critical systems like brakes and power steering, to basic vehicle controls like doors and windows. Meeting ISO 26262 Software Standards is needed but it will not make the code bug free. It’s quickly becoming common practice for embedded system developers to isolate both safety and security features on the same SoC. The shift to autonomous vehicles marks a major shift in the supply chain—and a major opportunity.
Many applications have need for a long service life — for example those deployed within industrial, scientific and military industries. In these applications, the service life may exceed that of component availability. Replacing an advanced, obsolete components in a design can be very costly, potentially requiring an entire redesign of the electronic hardware and software. The use of programmable devices helps designers not only to address component obsolescence, but also to reduce the cost and complexity of the solution. Programmable logic devices are provided in a range of devices of different types, capabilities and sizes, from FPGAs to System on Chips (SoC) and Complex Programmable Logic Devices (CPLD). The obsolete function can be emulated within the device, whether it is a logic function implemented in programmable logic in a CPLD, FPGA or SoC, or a processor system implemented in an FPGA or SoC.
Become familiar with USB type C connector. USB type C connector is becoming quickly more commonplace than any other earlier interface. In the end of 2016 there were 300 million devices using a USBC connection – a big part was smartphones, but the interface was also widespread on laptops. With growth, the USBC becomes soon the most common PC and peripheral interface. Thunderbolt™ 3 on USBC connector promises to fulfill the promise of USB-C for single-cable docking and so much more.
Power electronics
The power electronics market continues to grow and gain more presence across a variety of markets. 2017 was a good year for electric vehicles and the future of this market looks very promising. In 2017, we saw also how wireless charging technology has been adopted by many consumer electronic devices- including Apple smart phones. Today’s power supplies do more than deliver clean and stable dc power on daily basis—they provide advanced capabilities that can save you time and money.
Wide-bandgap semiconductor materials like gallium nitride (GaN) and silicon carbide (SiC) are anticipated to be used in many more applications in 2018. At the moment, the number of applications for those materials is steadily increasing in the automotive and military industry. Expect to see more adoption of SiC and GaN materials in automotive market.
According to Battery Market Goes Bigger and Better in 2018 article advances in battery technologies hold the keys to continuing progress in portable electronics, robotics, military, and telecommunication applications, as well as distributed power grids. It is difficult to see lithium-ion based batteries being replaced anytime soon, so the advances in battery technology are primarily through the application of lithium-ion battery chemistries. New battery protection for portable electronics cuts manufacturing steps and costs for Lithium-ion.
Transparency Market Research analysts predict that the global lithium-ion battery market is poised to rise from $29.67 billion in 2015 to $77.42 billion in 2024 with a compound annual growth rate of 11.6 %. That growth has already spread from the now ubiquitous consumer electronics segment to automotive, grid energy, and industrial applications. Dramatic increase is expected for battery power for the transportation, consumer electronic, and stationary segments. According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), the global energy-storage market will double six times between 2016 and 2030, rising to a total of 125 G/305 gigawatt-hours. In 2018, energy-storage systems will continue proliferating to provide backup power to the electric grid.
Memory
Memory business boomed in 2017 for both NAND and DRAM. The drivers for DRAM are smartphones and servers. Solid-state drives (SSDs) and smartphones are fueling the demand for NAND. Both the DRAM and NAND content in smartphones continues to grow, so memory business will do well in 2018.Fab tool vendors found themselves in the midst of an unexpected boom cycle in 2017, thanks to enormous demand for equipment in 3D NAND and, to a lesser degree, DRAM. In 2018, equipment demand looks robust, although the industry will be hard-pressed to surpass the record growth figures in 2017.
NAND Market Expected to Cool in Q1 from the crazy year 2017, but it is still growing well because there is increasing demand. The average NAND content in smartphones has been growing by roughly 50% recently, going from approximately 24 gigabytes in 2016 to approximately 38 gigabytes today.3D NAND will do the heavy memory lifting that smartphone users demand. Contract prices for NAND flash memory chips are expected to decline in during the first quarter of 2018 as a traditional lull in demand following the year-end quarter.
Lots of 3D NAND will go to solid state drives in 2018. IDC forecasts strong growth for the solid-state drive (SSD) industry as it transitions to 3D NAND. SSD industry revenue is expected to reach $33.6 billion in 2021, growing at a CAGR of 14.8%. Sizes of memory chips increase as number of layer in 3D NAND are added. We’ve already scaled up to 48 layers. Does this just keep scaling up, or are there physical limits here? Maybe we could see a path to 256 layers in few years.
Memory — particular DRAM — was largely considered a commodity business. Though that it’s really not true in 2017. DRAM memory marked had boomed in 2017 at the highest rate of expansion in 23 years, according to IC Insights. Skyrocketing prices drove the DRAM market to generate a record $72 billion in revenue, and it drove total revenue for the IC market up 22%. Though the outlook for the immediate future appears strong, a downturn in DRAM more than likely looms in the not-too-distant future. It will be seen when there are new players on the market. It is a largely unchallenged assertion that Chinese firms will in the not so distant future become a force in semiconductor memory market. Chinese government is committed to pumping more than $160 billion into the industry over a decade, with much of that ticketed for memory startups.
There is search for faster memory because modern computers, especially data-center servers that skew heavily toward in-memory databases, data-intensive analytics, and increasingly toward machine-learning and deep-neural-network training functions, depend on large amounts of high-speed, high capacity memory to keep the wheels turning. The memory speed has not increased as fast as the capacity. The access bandwidth of DRAM-based computer memory has improved by a factor of 20x over the past two decades. Capacity increased 128x during the same period. For year 2018 DRAM remains a near-universal choice when performance is the priority. There has been some attempts to very fast memory interfaces. Intel the company has introduced the market’s first FPGA chip with integrated high-speed EMBED (Embedded Multi-Die Interconnect Bridge): The Stratix 10 MX interfaces to HMB2 memory (High Memory Bandwidth) that offers about 10 times faster speed than standard DDR-type DIMM.
There is search going on for a viable replacement for DRAM. Whether it’s STT-RAM or phase-change memory or resistive RAM, none of them can match the speed or endurance of DRAM. Necessity is the mother of invention, and we see at least two more generations after 1x. XPoint is also coming up as another viable memory solution that could be inserted into the current memory architecture. It will be interesting to see how that plays out versus DRAM.
5G and IoT
5G something in it for everyone. 5G is big. 5G New Radio (NR) wireless technology will ultimately impact everyone in the electronics and telecommunications industries. Most estimates say 2020 is when we will ultimately see some real 5G deployments on a scale. In the meantime, companies are firming up their plans for whatever 5G products and services they will offer. Though test and measurement solutions will be key in the commercialization cycle. 5G is set to disrupt test processes. If 5G takes off, the technology will propel the development of new chips in both the infrastructure and the handset. Data centers require specialty semiconductors from power management to high-speed optical fiber front-ends. 5G systems will drive more complexity in RF front-ends .5G will offer increased capacity and decreased latency for some critical applications such as vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) or vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) communications for advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and self-driving vehicles. The big question is whether 5G will disrupt the landscape or fall short of its promises.
Electronics manufacturers expect a lot from Internet of Thing. The evolution of intelligent electronic sensors is creating a revolution for IoT and Industrial IoT as companies bring new sensor-based, intelligent systems to market. The business promise is that the proliferation of smart and connected “things” in the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) provides tremendous opportunities for increased performance and lower costs. Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) has a market forecast approaching $100 billion by 2020. Turning volumes of factory data into actionable information that has value is essential. Predictive maintenance and asset tracking are two big IoT markets to watch in 2018 because they will provide real efficiencies and improved safety. It will be about instrumenting our existing infrastructures with sensors that improve their reliability and help predict failures. It will be about tracking important assets through their lifecycles.
A new breed of designers has arrived that is leveraging inexpensive sensors to build the intelligent systems at the edge of the Internet of Things (IoT). They work in small teams, collaborate online, and they expect affordable design tools that are easy to use in order to quickly produce results. Their goal is to deliver a functioning device or a proof-of-concept to their stakeholders while spending as little money as possible to get there. We need to become multi-functional engineers who can comfortably work in the digital, RF, and system domains.
The Io edge sensor device usually needs to be cheap. Simple mathematical reasoning suggests that the average production cost per node must be small, otherwise the economics of the IoT simply are not viable. Most suppliers to the electronics industry are today working under the assumption that the bill-of-materials (BoM) cost of a node cannot exceed $5 on average. While the sensor market continues to garner billions of dollars, the average selling price of a MEMS sensor, for example, is only 60 cents.
Designing a well working and secure IoT system is still hard. IoT platforms are very complex distributed systems and managing these distributed systems is often an overlooked challenge. When designing for the IoT, security needs to be addressed from the Cloud down to each and every edge device. Protecting data is both a hardware and a software requirement, as more data is being stored and analyzed in edge devices and gateways.
The continued evolution of powerful embedded processors is enabling more functionality to be consolidated into single heterogeneous multicore devices. You will see more mixed criticality designs – those designs which contain both safety-critical and non-safety critical processes running on the same chip. It’s quickly becoming common practice for embedded system developers to isolate both safety and security features on the same SoC.
AI
There is clearly a lot of hype surrounding machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) fields. Over the past few years, machine learning (ML) has evolved from an interesting new approach that allows computers to beat champions at chess and Go, into one that is touted as a panacea for almost everything. Machine learning already has delivered beneficial results in certain niches, but it has potential for a bigger and longer lasting impact because of the demand for broad insights and efficiencies across industries. Also EDA companies have been investing in this technology and some results are expected to be announced.
The Battle of AI Processors Begins in 2018. Machine learning applications have a voracious appetite for compute cycles, consuming as much compute power as they can possibly scrounge up. As a result, they are invariably run on parallel hardware – often parallel heterogeneous hardware—which creates development challenges of its own. 2018 will be the start of what could be a longstanding battle between chipmakers to determine who creates the hardware that artificial intelligence lives on. Main contenders on the field at the moment are CPUs, GPUs, TPUs (tensor processing units), and FPGAs. Analysts at both Research and Markets and TechNavio have predicted the global AI chip market to grow at a compound annual growth rate of about 54% between 2017 and 2021.
Sources:
Battery Market Goes Bigger and Better in 2018
Smart speakers to outsell wearables during U.S. holidays, as demand for wearables slows
Wearables Shipments Expected to Double by 2021
The Week In Review: Manufacturing #186
Five technology trends for 2018
NI Trend Watch 2018 explores trends driving the future faster
Creating Software Separation for Mixed Criticality Systems
Isolating Safety and Security Features on the Xilinx UltraScale+ MPSoC
Meeting ISO 26262 Software Standards
DRAM Growth Projected to be Highest Since ’94
NAND Market Expected to Cool in Q1
Memory Market Forecast 2018 … with Jim Handy
3D NAND Storage Fuels New Age of Smartphone Apps
$55.9 Billion Semiconductor Equipment Forecast – New Record with Korea at Top
Advanced Packaging Is Suddenly Very Cool
Apple Watch 3 shipment growth to benefit Taiwan IC packagers in 2018
Rapid SoC Proof-of-Concept for Zero Cost
EDA Challenges Machine Learning
What Can You Expect from the New Generation of Power Supplies?
Optimizing Machine Learning Applications for Parallel Hardware
FPGA-dataa 10 kertaa nopeammin
Chipmakers Look To New Materials
What the Experts Think: Delivering the next 5 years of semiconductor technology
Programmable Logic Holds the Key to Addressing Device Obsolescence
The Battle of AI Processors Begins in 2018
For China’s Memory Firms, Legal Tests May Loom
Predictions for the New Year in Analog & Power Electronics
Lithium-ion Overcomes Limitations
Will Fab Tool Boom Cycle Last?
The Next 5 Years Of Chip Technology
Chipmakers Look To New Materials
Process Window Discovery And Control
Sensors are Fundamental to New Intelligent Systems
Industrial IoT (IIoT) – Where is Silicon Valley
Internet of things (IoT) design considerations for embedded connected devices
How efficient memory solutions can help designers of IoT nodes meet tight BoM cost targets
1,325 Comments
Tomi Engdahl says:
Block EMI/RFI with Shields and Filters
https://www.mwrf.com/materials/block-emirfi-shields-and-filters?NL=MWRF-001&Issue=MWRF-001_20180904_MWRF-001_497&sfvc4enews=42&cl=article_2_b&utm_rid=CPG05000002750211&utm_campaign=19640&utm_medium=email&elq2=ed4e41277c9f410b9b91f53ca53eb5e1
EM shields are meant to prevent radiated emissions of EM fields propagating beyond a certain point, such as outside an equipment cabinet or enclosure. EM energy that propagates beyond that threshold can act as interference for other equipment (e.g., cell phones and radios), preventing their proper operation. By surrounding an EM field with a conductive barrier, such as a copper or stainless-steel gasket that seals an equipment enclosure, the EM field can be contained, and interference minimized.
When an EM wave strikes an EMI/RFI shield, two things happen. Most of the energy from the EM wave is reflected by the conductive surface of the shield, in different directions, depending on the material qualities and the phase of the WM wave at the point of impact. Some of the energy from the EM wave is also absorbed by the shield—it will be converted into heat energy that, depending on the power levels, may require additional thermal management. Some EMI/RFI shielding materials are formulated to double as shields and thermal-management materials, and can be used as both shields and heat sinks.
An EMI/RFI shield also works in both directions.
Shielding materials, such as thin sheets of copper or aluminum, require good ground connections for effective EM field containment. EMI/RFI shields may also require openings in the metal sheets to release heat generated in higher-power electronic circuits, especially for shielding materials that absorb rather than reflect EM fields. The sizes of the openings should not relate to the wavelengths of the EM waves that are being contained, otherwise it will minimize the shielding effectiveness (SE) of an EMI/RFI shield.
Most shielding-material suppliers provide measured SE values at different frequencies across the usable frequency ranges of their materials
EMI/RFI shields and filters are both effective in controlling electromagnetic-based interference, although they work in different ways.
Tomi Engdahl says:
http://www.etn.fi/index.php/13-news/8388-yli-13-miljardia-mems-anturia
Tomi Engdahl says:
New Cathode Material Triples the Energy Storage of Lithium-Ion Batteries
https://www.electronicdesign.com/power/new-cathode-material-triples-energy-storage-lithium-ion-batteries?NL=ED-003&Issue=ED-003_20180905_ED-003_960&sfvc4enews=42&cl=article_2_b&utm_rid=CPG05000002750211&utm_campaign=19676&utm_medium=email&elq2=da417ef448054cefb908ff10cc0b7b67
Scientists have synthesized a cathode material from iron fluoride that boosts the capacity of lithium-ion batteries.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Inside Portable Stimulus: Filling in the Blanks
https://www.eeweb.com/profile/lbrady/articles/inside-portable-stimulus-filling-in-the-blanks
A Portable Stimulus tool can do much of the work and allow many tests to be created based on the defined verification objectives.
Portable Stimulus enables you to quickly and easily specify scenarios that should be tested. Today, the only way to do this is to carefully craft directed tests. This probably involves writing software to run on the processors within the design coupled with something to coordinate activities on the external ports of the design. This all becomes simpler with Portable Stimulus because:
It does a lot of the grunt work for you.
It allows you to specify the important aspects of the scenario that you want to run and have the tool fill in the blanks.
It allows you to re-target that test to one of many execution platforms.
In this blog, I will look at how a tool fills in the blanks.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Chip Sales Growth Slows
https://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1333670
Semiconductor sales increased again in July, but may finally be showing signs of cooling.
The three-month average of chip sales grew to $39.5 billion in July, up 17.4% from July 2017, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association. While the year-to-year growth rate remains healthy, July snapped a streak of 15 consecutive months of greater than 20% year-to-year increases.
Chip sales also increased on a sequential basis — just barely. The three-month average of chip sales in July was up by a modest 0.4%, according to the SIA, which reports sales data compiled by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization.
“The global semiconductor industry posted its highest-ever monthly sales in July, easily outpacing last July and narrowly ahead of last month’s total,”
Tomi Engdahl says:
13 Hot Chips from Summer 2018
https://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1333649
Tomi Engdahl says:
Less Price Erosion Will Lift MEMS Sensor/Actuator Growth
http://www.icinsights.com/news/bulletins/Less-Price-Erosion-Will-Lift-MEMS-SensorActuator-Growth/%20
More intelligent and automated controls and specialized MEMS-built semiconductors will keep ASPs from falling as much as they did in the last 10 years, says O-S-D report.
Tomi Engdahl says:
China’s Semiconductor Fab Capacity to Reach 20 Percent Worldwide Share in 2020, Region’s Equipment Market Expected to Rise to Top
http://www.semi.org/en/chinas-semiconductor-fab-capacity-reach-20-percent-worldwide-share-2020-regions-equipment-market%20
The China IC Ecosystem Report, a comprehensive report for the IC manufacturing supply chain, reveals that front-end fab capacity in China will grow to account for 16 percent of the world’s semiconductor fab capacity this year, a share that will increase to 20 percent by the end of 2020. With the rapid growth, China will top the rest of the world in fab investment in 2020 with more than $20 billion in spending, driven by memory and foundry projects funded by both multinational and domestic companies, according to the new report announced today by SEMI.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Chipmakers slowing down transition to sub-10nm technology
https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20180904PD202.html
With sub-10nm node manufacturing requiring huge capex, a number of foundries have slowed down their investment pace while fabless chipmakers stick with 14/12nm products for cost reasons. Such scenario will likely turn a new leaf in the chip industry evolution, according to industry sources.
The cost of developing sub-10nm chips is prohibitively high. HiSilicon recently said it would spend at least US$300 million developing its new-generation SoC chip manufactured using 7nm process technology.
Fabless chip developers are aware that they have to spend big on sub-10nm chip development, and are concerned about whether such huge investment will pay off, the sources indicated.
Instead of developing the industry’s first 7nm SoC chip, Qualcomm and MediaTek have both moved to enhance their upper mid-range offerings by rolling out respective new 14/12nm solutions, the sources noted. Questions have been raised about whether advancing to 7nm manufacturing node is necessary under the current circumstances, the sources said.
Tomi Engdahl says:
http://www.etn.fi/index.php/13-news/8395-galliumnitridi-uuteen-nousuun
Tomi Engdahl says:
EEVBlog #1119 – Designing a 1kV Isolated Oscilloscope
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I7ppDNLlEL4
Bart Schroder from Cleverscope talks about the challenges in designing the world’s highest performance isolated oscilloscope.
Measurement demo on a 500V MOSFET H-Bridge and how to accurately probe it. Then a teardown and walk through of the design of the new CS448 1kV 4CH 200MHz 14bit isolated oscilloscope and the custom probes, power supplies and optical fibre interfaces they had to design to get this performance.
https://cleverscope.com/products/CS448
http://www.eevblog.com/files/CleverscopeSep2018.pdf
Tomi Engdahl says:
Low-Quality Capacitors Turned Into High-Quality Temperature Sensors
https://hackaday.com/2018/08/23/low-quality-capacitors-turned-into-high-quality-temperature-sensors/
When life hands you a bunch of crummy capacitors, what do you do? Make a whole bunch of temperature sensors, apparently.
Stocked with capacitors of many values, kits like these are great to have around, especially when they’ve got high-quality components in them. But not all ceramic caps are created equal, and [pyromaniac303] was determined not to let the lesser-quality units go to waste. A quick look at the data sheets revealed that the caps with the Y5V dielectric had a suitably egregious temperature coefficient to serve as a useful sensor.
Use Capacitors to Measure Temperature
https://www.instructables.com/id/Use-Capacitors-to-Measure-Temperature/
This project came about because I bought a capacitor kit with mainly X7R (good quality) capacitors, but some of the higher values 100nF and above were the cheaper and less stable Y5V dielectric, which exhibit a massive change over temperature and operating voltage. I wouldn’t normally use Y5V in a product I’m designing, so I tried to find alternative uses for them rather than let them sit on the shelf forever.
I wanted to see if the temperature change could be exploited to make a useful and very low cost sensor, and as you’ll see over the next few pages it was quite simple, with only one other component required.
There are quite a few dielectrics available, but the most popular are shown on the graph.
NP0 (also called C0G) – these are the best, with virtually no change over temperature however they tend to only be available for low capacitance values in the picoFarad and low nanoFarad range.
X7R – these are reasonable, with only a small percentage change over the operating range.
Y5V – as you can see these are the steepest curve on the graph, with a peak around 10C. This limits the usefulness of the effect somewhat, because if the sensor has the possibility of ever going below 10 degrees it will be impossible to determine which side of the peak it is.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Keysight P9336A USB AWG Teardown
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u22duJf4n1Q
Impromptu teardown of the Keysight P9336A USB AWG at the Keysight stand at Electronex
only Dave would be allowed to do an Impromptu teardown at trade show
For those curious about the price, both the M9336A PXIe and the P9336A USB versions are listed at $23,000 at Keysight.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Reuters:
Japan-based Renesas, the second-biggest supplier of chips used in cars, has agreed to buy US-based wireless chip maker Integrated Device Technology for ~$6.7B — TOKYO (Reuters) – Japanese chipmaker Renesas Electronics Corp (6723.T) said on Tuesday it had agreed to buy U.S. peer Integrated …
Renesas in $6.7 billion deal for IDT to boost chips for self-driving cars
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-idt-m-a-renesas/japans-renesas-says-it-will-buy-u-s-chipmaker-idt-for-6-7-billion-idUSKCN1LR031
Japan’s Renesas Electronics Corp (6723.T) said it had agreed to buy Integrated Device Technology Inc (IDT) (IDTI.O) for $6.7 billion, its second major acquisition as it deepens its push into semiconductors for self-driving cars.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Ingrid Lunden / TechCrunch:
Intel acquires San Jose-based NetSpeed Systems, which it had invested in previously, for better tools to make system-on-a-chip designs — Intel today is announcing another acquisition as it continues to pick up talent and IP to bolster its next generation of computing chips beyond legacy PCs.
Intel acquires NetSpeed Systems to boost its system-on-a-chip business
https://techcrunch.com/2018/09/10/intel-acquires-netspeed-systems-to-beef-up-its-system-on-a-chip-business/
Intel today is announcing another acquisition as it continues to pick up talent and IP to bolster its next generation of computing chips beyond legacy PCs. The company has acquired NetSpeed Systems, a startup that makes system-on-chip (SoC) design tools and interconnect fabric intellectual property (IP).
SoC is a central part of how newer connected devices are being made. Moving away from traditional motherboards to create all-in-one chips that include processing, memory, input/output and storage is an essential cornerstone when building ever-smaller and more efficient devices. This is an area where Intel is already active but against others like Nvidia and Qualcomm many believe it has some catching up to do, and so this acquisition in important in that context.
“Intel is designing more products with more specialized features than ever before, which is incredibly exciting for Intel architects and for our customers,”
Tomi Engdahl says:
The Race To Zero Defects
https://semiengineering.com/getting-to-zero-defects/
Complexity, scaling and economics are hindering test engineers from finding all of the faults.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Cobalt Shortages Ahead
https://semiengineering.com/cobalt-shortages-ahead/
Growth in electric vehicles and batteries is causing supply issues that could affect broad swaths of the electronics market.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Design solutions: Latest MEMS and sensor signal conditioning architectures
https://www.edn.com/design/sensors/4461027/Design-solutions–Latest-MEMS-and-Sensor-signal-conditioning-architectures?utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=link&utm_medium=EDNFunFriday-20180907
Tomi Engdahl says:
Chip Sales Growth Slows
https://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1333670
Tomi Engdahl says:
http://www.etn.fi/index.php/13-news/8407-puolijohdekasvu-jatkuu-ja-jatkuu
Tomi Engdahl says:
Deal-shy chipmaker TSMC says it’s open to memory acquisition
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Deal-shy-chipmaker-TSMC-says-it-s-open-to-memory-acquisition2
Apple supplier under pressure to diversify as demand shifts beyond phones
Tomi Engdahl says:
Intel to outsource 14nm chipset production due to tight supply
https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20180910PD210.html
Intel is encountering tight 14nm process production capacity in-house, and is looking to outsource part of its 14nm chipset production to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), according to industry sources.
Intel intends to give priority to its high-margin products mainly server-use processors and chipsets amid its tight 14nm process capacity, and therefore plans to outsource the production of its entry-level H310 and several other 300 series chipsets to TSMC, the sources indicated.
Intel has seen its overall 14nm chip supply fall short of demand by as much as 50%, the sources said. Outsourcing has become the only and appropriate choice for Intel since the company is unlikely to build additional 14nm process capacity, the sources noted.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Kymmenen prosenttia edullisempaa aurinkosähköä
https://www.nanobitteja.fi/uutiset.html?140273
Tomi Engdahl says:
What the GlobalFoundries’ Retreat Really Means
Things will never be the same for consumer devices
https://spectrum.ieee.org/nanoclast/semiconductors/devices/what-globalfoundries-retreat-really-means
For most of our lives, the idea that computers and technology would get better, faster, and cheaper every year was as assured as the sun rising every morning. The story “GlobalFoundries Halts 7-nm Chip Development” doesn’t sound like the end of that era, but for you and anyone who uses an electronic device, it most certainly is.
Technology innovation is going to take a different direction.
GlobalFoundries was one of the three companies that made the most advanced silicon chips for other companies, such as AMD, IBM, Broadcom, Qualcomm, STM and the Department of Defense.) The other foundries are Samsung in South Korea and TSMC in Taiwan. Now there are only two pursuing the leading edge. (Intel too is pursuing these advanced chips, but its business making chips for other companies is relatively small.)
This is a big deal.
Moore’s Law ended a decade ago. Consumers just didn’t get the memo.
So, what does this mean for consumers? First, high performance applications that needed very fast computing will continue their move from your local device to the cloud, further enabled by new 5G networks. Second, while computing devices we buy will not be much faster on today’s off-the-shelf software, new features– facial recognition, augmented reality, autonomous navigation, and apps we haven’t even thought about—are going to come from software using new displays, sensors, and other still-in-prototype technology.
The world of computing is moving into new and uncharted territory. For desktop and mobile devices, the need for a “must have” upgrade won’t be for speed, but for new capabilities.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Enabling Cheaper Design
https://semiengineering.com/enabling-cheaper-design/
At what point does cheaper design enable a significant growth in custom semiconductor content? Not everyone is onboard with the idea.
While the EDA industry tends to focus on cutting edge designs, where design costs are a minor portion of the total cost of product, the electronics industry has a very long tail. The further along the tail you go, the more significant design costs become as a percent of total cost.
Many of those designs are traditionally built using standard parts, such as microcontrollers, but as additional sophistication is creeping into edge devices for the IoT, demand is increasing for more computational ability beyond what simple microcontrollers provide.
Abstraction
There is little disagreement that abstraction is at the heart of any improvement. “It makes sense to move up the levels of abstraction both in the hardware side and the software side,” says Pursley. “When you do that, you are writing fewer lines of code, which means there is less to verify, and you also have code that is more reusable across generations.”
But the adoption of abstraction has stalled for a large fraction of the industry. “While the level of automation and abstraction is significantly higher than 20 years ago, the complexity has grown significantly offsetting some of the advances,” admits Whitfield. “In terms of inexpensive design and the direction the industry is headed, there seems to be a greater focus on high-level abstraction for design, but if we can close the gap between the design description and something that is functionally verified and implementable in silicon, there is potential for wider adoption.”
Tomi Engdahl says:
Process Corner Explosion
https://semiengineering.com/process-corner-explosion/
At 7nm and below, modeling what will actually show up in silicon is a lot more complicated.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Minimizing Chip Aging Effects
https://semiengineering.com/minimizing-chip-aging-effects/
Understanding aging factors within a design can help reduce the likelihood of product failures.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Hybrid Memory
https://semiengineering.com/hybrid-memory/
Gary Bronner, senior vice president of Rambus Labs, talks about the future of DRAM scaling, why one type of memory won’t solve all needs, and what the pros and cons are of different memories.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R0hhDx2Fb7Q
Tomi Engdahl says:
http://www.etn.fi/index.php/13-news/8431-grafeenilla-terahertsien-alueella
Tomi Engdahl says:
http://www.etn.fi/index.php/13-news/8428-32-bittinen-vetaa-nyt-kasvua-mikro-ohjaimissa
Tomi Engdahl says:
Magnetic Materials Self-Actuate in Response to Light
https://www.designnews.com/materials-assembly/magnetic-materials-self-actuate-response-light/139443113359251?ADTRK=UBM&elq_mid=5651&elq_cid=876648
Materials that move in response to light can be used in various new products, including tiny engines and valves as well as solar arrays that bend toward the sunlight.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Intel’s Next Move
https://semiengineering.com/intels-big-shift/
Company’s push into deep learning opens door to a variety of new architectures, including tiles, advanced packaging and more customized solutions.
SE: What’s changing on the processor side?
Singer: The biggest change is the addition of deep learning and neural networks. Over the past several years, the changes have been so fast and profound that we’re trying to assess the potential and what we do with it. But at the same time, you also need to step back and think about how that fits in with other complementary capabilities. That’s part of the overall transition.
Tomi Engdahl says:
SEMICON Taiwan Opens With AI, IoT, Automotive in the Spotlight
http://www.semi.org/en/semicon-taiwan-opens-ai-iot-automotive-spotlight
Tomi Engdahl says:
Intel to outsource 14nm chipset production due to tight supply
https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20180910PD210.html
Intel has seen its overall 14nm chip supply fall short of demand by as much as 50%, the sources said. Outsourcing has become the only and appropriate choice for Intel since the company is unlikely to build additional 14nm process capacity, the sources noted.
TSMC is already a contract manufacturer of Intel for SoFIA-series handset SoC chips and FPGA products, and makes Intel’s baseband chips for use in the iPhone, the sources said.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Sorting Out Packaging Options
https://semiengineering.com/sorting-out-packaging-options/
Experts at the Table, Part 1: Better naming conventions will reduce confusion over different packaging types, while cost, applications and standards will narrow the choices.
Tomi Engdahl says:
South China Morning Post:
How China is working to expand industrial robot usage tenfold to 1.8M units, 70% of which to be made in China, up from 30% currently, by 2025
‘Made In China 2025’: a peek at the robot revolution under way in the hub of the ‘world’s factory’
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2164103/made-china-2025-peek-robot-revolution-under-way-hub-worlds
In the second report in a series, He Huifeng and Celia Chen look at how Beijing’s ambitious industrial plan aims to break China’s reliance on foreign technology and pull its hi-tech industries up to Western levels
The opening of the government tap is a bonanza for robotics makers. The 400 companies of the Guangdong industry guild could expect “double-digit” sales growth for their robots for the next few years, Ren said.
A skilled factory worker earns about 36,000 yuan a year in wages and benefits in China’s poorer provinces and second-tier cities, away from the coast. Total remuneration can exceed 60,000 yuan in cities nearer the coast and along the eastern seaboard, like in the Pearl River and Yangtze River deltas.
A 200,000 yuan robot that can do the job of three humans can recoup its capital cost in 22 months in central provinces, or in a little over a year in coastal cities. In the face of rising prices pressures for labour, energy and rents, such a cost advantage would be attractive to many manufacturers.
Tomi Engdahl says:
New York Times:
Trump placing 10% tariffs on an additional ~$200B in Chinese imports on Sept. 24, drops ~300 types of goods, including smartwatches, from list of those affected — President Trump, emboldened by America’s econo
Trump Hits China With Tariffs on $200 Billion in Goods, Escalating Trade War
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/17/us/politics/trump-china-tariffs-trade.html
Tomi Engdahl says:
Litium voidaan korvata halvalla natriumilla
http://etn.fi/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=8446&via=n&datum=2018-09-18_14:32:59&mottagare=31202
Tomi Engdahl says:
System-Level Test: Where Does It Fit?
https://semiengineering.com/system-level-test-where-does-it-fit/
Why an evolution in the test flow is so critical to the cost of test.
Tomi Engdahl says:
High-Reliability RF Cables: Not Just for the Military!
https://www.mwrf.com/components/high-reliability-rf-cables-not-just-military?NL=MWRF-001&Issue=MWRF-001_20180918_MWRF-001_433&sfvc4enews=42&cl=article_2_b&utm_rid=CPG05000002750211&utm_campaign=20009&utm_medium=email&elq2=62fdf7693a9c4f958eec8de3175b566a
RF/microwave cable assemblies, critical components in many systems, are essential for providing high-frequency signal interconnections—with no room for failure.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Graphene Chips in for Moore’s Law
https://www.eetimes.com/author.asp?section_id=36&doc_id=1333696
I believe the future will show graphene, discovered in 2004, will spawn the next big innovation in semiconductor materials.
Graphene is one atomic layer of carbon, the thinnest and strongest material that ever existed. It is 200 times stronger than steel and the lightest material known to man—a square meter weighing around 0.77 mg. It is an excellent electrical and thermal conductor at room temperature.
At one atomic layer, graphene is flexible and transparent. It also shows uniform absorption of light across the visible and near-infrared spectrum and has applicability for spintronics-based devices.
In a 3D IC package, graphene can be used as a heat spreader to lower overall thermal resistance or as an EM shield to lower crosstalk.
Active graphene device layers can potentially be stacked on top of each other using a low temperature transfer process (< 400°C)–enabling dense, heterogeneous, components that support memory-near-compute. This is an area DARPA is actively researching, as part of its new $1.5 billion Electronics Resurgence Initiative.
As for interconnects, copper is running out of steam and is becoming a major IC bottleneck with projected 40% total delay at the 7-nm node. Graphene’s high electron mobility and thermal conductivity make it an attractive interconnect material for middle and back end-of-line processes, especially at line widths < 30 nm.
Graphene-based semiconductor applications are already starting to hit the market. A fully integrated optical transceiver with a graphene modulator and photodetector operating at 25 Gbits/second/channel was on display at the recent Mobile World Congress in Barcelona.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Improving EMI Performance Through Simulation
https://www.eetimes.com/author.asp?section_id=36&doc_id=1333698
Here’s a method for improving EMI performance through simulation during the product design phase. This will ultimately reduce the cost of hardware verification and improve productivity.
These power supplies provide power to specialized functionalities required for the fast changing technologies, often referred to as Power Conditioning Units (PCU) or switch-mode power supplies (SMPS). In a SMPS, the voltages and currents are switched to shape and control the power to match the load requirements, giving rise to electromagnetic fields that get associated with the environment around them, i.e. Electromagnetic Interference (EMI). The analysis of EMI takes precedence in product development because of the increased presence of such systems and the detrimental effects of EMI.
Before we get into the details of EMI, let me shed some light on the implementation of power electronics in various fields of engineering — for example, the key driver of the automotive industry’s move towards more Electric Vehicles (EV).
A typical EV powertrain consists of an electrical energy source, an electric drive motor, and a PCU that processes the DC power to a form that is compatible with the drive motor.
In addition to the powertrain, several subsystems such as lighting systems, entertainment systems, climate control, safety systems, and communications systems, also need dedicated power supplies. These systems and the necessary battery charging infrastructure call for different types of PCUs.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Microcontroller Fortunes Rise with IoT
https://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1333736
The market for microcontrollers is forecast to rise steadily over the next five years, due mostly to the the increasing prevalence of sensors and the rise of the Internet of Things (IoT), according to market research firm IC Insights.
MCU shipments are projected to rise by 18% this this year, reaching 30.6 billion units, IC Insights said. The firm forecasts that MCU sales will increase 11% to reach a new all-time high of $18.6 billion this year, with further growth of 9% to $20.4 billion expected in 2019.
Over the next five years, IC Insights predicts that MCU sales will increase by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.2%, reaching nearly $23.9 billion in 2022. Unit shipments are forecast to increase by an 11.1% CAGR over the same period, reaching roughly 43.8 billion units in 2022.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Facebook Builds Chip Team, ASIC
Web giant rallies support for AI compiler
https://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1333716
A Facebook executive confirmed reports that the social networking giant is hiring chip engineers and designing at least one ASIC. The news came at the @Scale event here, where Facebook announced that five chip companies will support Glow, an open-source, deep-learning compiler that it backs.
Facebook “is absolutely bringing up a silicon team focused on working with silicon providers, and we have a chip we’re building, but it’s not our primary focus,” said Jason Taylor, vice president of infrastructure at Facebook. The chip is “not the equivalent of [Google’s] TPU” deep-learning accelerator, he added, declining to provide further details on its focus or time frame.
Tomi Engdahl says:
China says Trump forces its hand, will retaliate against new U.S. tariffs
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-tariffs/china-says-it-will-retaliate-after-trump-imposes-fresh-tariffs-idUSKCN1LX2M3
China said on Tuesday that it had no choice but to retaliate against new U.S. trade tariffs, raising the risk that U.S. President Donald Trump could soon impose duties on virtually all of the Chinese goods that America buys.
The Chinese commerce ministry’s statement came hours after Trump said he was imposing 10 percent tariffs on about $200 billion worth of imports from China, and threatened duties on about $267 billion more if China retaliated against the U.S. action.
Tomi Engdahl says:
http://www.etn.fi/index.php/13-news/8451-ensimmainen-reititystyokalu-fotoniikkapiireille
Työkalu on nimeltään LightSuite. Se ei perustu Siemens-konserniin kuuluvan Mentorin aiempiin EDA-työkaluihin, vaan on OpenAccess-pohjainen työkalu, jossa kuvauskielenä käytetään Pythonia. Mentorin mukaan fotoniikkaosien sijoittelu ja reititys onnistuu työkalun avulla minuuteissa, kun työ aiemmin vaati viikkoja.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Analog: Still Alive and Well
https://www.electronicdesign.com/analog/analog-still-alive-and-well?NL=ED-003&Issue=ED-003_20180919_ED-003_170&sfvc4enews=42&cl=article_1_b&utm_rid=CPG05000002750211&utm_campaign=20051&utm_medium=email&elq2=387369d3d1a44113810a68169389e586
Sponsored by Digi-Key and Maxim Integrated: Despite the onslaught of digital technology, analog tech and analog components are a long way from becoming obsolete, and a case can be made that perhaps they never will be.
Today it seems that everything electronic is digital—a reasonable assumption considering it’s hard to find a turnable knob anywhere and values are displayed in digits everywhere. The underlying assumptions, at least for those without a technical bent, are that digital is modern, analog is archaic (the way things were done before we had something better), and there’s probably no analog “stuff” in electronic products anymore. Fortunately for the designers who work with analog components and the manufacturers that make them, this is far from the case, and it’s likely to remain that way.
After all, the earth and its inhabitants are analog. So, the goal of converting something from analog to digital form is an attempt to re-create the original as faithfully as possible.
But just because something can be converted to the digital domain doesn’t mean it should be.
Analog components are, consequently, essential—digital devices simply cannot do certain things, at least not yet.
Then there are switch-mode power supplies, which are still analog as high current cannot be handled by digital electronics. And although digital filters hold many advantages over their analog counterparts, they still often need to convert the input signal from its analog form. Analog anti-aliasing filters are required before the ADC in oversampled sampled-data systems, as is a reconstruction (anti-imaging) filter after the digital-to-analog converter (DAC). Analog filters also have a fraction of the latency of digital filters, so they’re faster.
Amplifiers represent classic examples of analog capability, whether they’re boosting audio systems, smartphones, or broadcast transmitters.
Of course, other devices combine the benefits of analog and digital technology to produce a result that neither one could achieve on its own. A good example is Maxim’s family of “nanopower” supervisory circuits.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Ask Hackaday: How’s That Capacitor Shortage Going?
https://hackaday.com/2018/09/18/ask-hackaday-hows-that-capacitor-shortage-going/
There is a looming spectre of doom hovering over the world of electronics manufacturing. It’s getting hard to find parts, and the parts you can find are expensive. No, it doesn’t have anything to with the tariffs enacted by the United States against Chinese goods this last summer. This is a problem that doesn’t have an easy scapegoat. This is a problem that strikes at the heart of any economic system. This is the capacitor and resistor shortage.
When we first reported on the possibility of a global shortage of chip capacitors and resistors, things were for the time being, okay. Yes, major manufacturers were saying they were spinning down production lines until it was profitable to start them up again, but there was relief: parts were in stock, and they didn’t cost that much more.
Now, it’s a different story. We’re in the Great Capacitor Shortage of 2018, and we don’t know when it’s going to get any better.
https://hackaday.com/2018/01/31/global-resistor-shortage-economics-and-consumer-behavior/
Tomi Engdahl says:
Engineering a Solution to the IP&E Shortage
https://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1333742
A confluence of rising demand and capacity limitations is creating shortages in interconnect, passive, and electromechanical (IP&E) component supplies. And the situation is likely to persist for perhaps years because vendors have delayed investing in additional manufacturing capacity, fearing a repeat of the dot-com boom/bust cycle. While many might consider supply shortages a manufacturing or procurement problem, though, designers are in an ideal position to help find a long-term solution.
The current IP&E shortage is a cause for serious concern. Demand has so outstripped production that common components such as multilayer ceramic chip capacitors (MLCCs), chip resistors, and the like are now seeing lead times of 40 to 60 weeks. That’s enough to exhaust any reasonable inventory reserve that a manufacturer might have and result in a shutdown of a production line and corresponding loss of revenue and even market share. These shortages, then, become a company-wide concern, not just a manufacturing or procurement worry.
What manufacturing needs are alternatives to using unavailable parts that are not simple cookie-cutter replacements but, instead, use different component types or values. Identifying and validating such alternatives are best done by the design team.
Consider, for instance, trying to find substitutes for the MLCCs that have become popular because of their small size, low cost, and low equivalent series resistance (ESR).
Tomi Engdahl says:
New China Tariffs Hit Chip Industry Again
https://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1333741
U.S. President Donald Trump again ratched up the U.S.-China trade war, levying tariffs on an additional $200 billion worth of imports from China — including parts and materials used in semiconductor manufacturing.
The U.S. Trade Representative released a list of about 5,745 types of Chinese imports that will be hit with an initial 10% tariff beginning Sept. 24. The tariff levied on these products is set to increase to 25% in January.