Tech trends 2022

The year 2021 was strange, you can read more of it from A 2021 technology retrospective: Strange days indeed. But how strange will 2022 be? Here are some predictions for year 2022:

2022 preview: Will the global computer chip shortage ever end?
The growing demand for computer chips, used in everything from cars to fridges, has collided with the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, leading to a global shortage that is likely to continue through 2022
Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2022-2022-preview-will-the-global-computer-chip-shortage-ever-end/#ixzz7GqrP1H9A

Industry Transforming In Ways Previously Unimaginable
https://semiengineering.com/industry-transforming-in-ways-previously-unimaginable/?cmid=3dedf05d-0284-497a-b015-daf7747872e6

As we look back over 2021, there have certainly been some surprises, but the industry continues to take everything in its stride.

2022 tech themes: A look ahead
https://www.edn.com/2022-tech-themes-a-look-ahead/

The continued COVID-19 question mark: The world quickly and dramatically changed. It hasn’t yet reverted to pre-pandemic characteristics, and it very likely never will. Sad but true, the pandemic isn’t even close to being over yet.
Deep learning’s Cambrian moment: Look at today’s participant-rich deep learning silicon and software market, spanning both training and inference.
The ongoing importance of architecture: As the number of transistors that it’s possible to cost-effectively squeeze onto a sliver of silicon continues to slow, what you build out of those transistors becomes increasingly critical.
Open source processors’ time in the sun: There is a burgeoning RISC-V movement. It’s likely a little-known fact to some of you, that a public domain instruction set for v2 and earlier versions of the Arm ISA exists. And both Sun (with OpenSPARC) and IBM (OpenPOWER) have also joined the open-source silicon movement.
The normalization of remote work (and the “Great Resignation’s” aftershocks): I suspect that, to at least a notable degree, we won’t ever completely return to the “way it was before.” In fact, I’d wager that having a taste of a work-from-home or “hybrid” employment lifestyle is one of the key factors behind the so-called “Great Resignation” that tech and broader media alike inform me is well underway.
The metaverse starts to stir: Perhaps we’ll look back at 2022 as the year when the crossing of the chasm started in earnest.
Autonomy slowly accelerates: 2021 was another year filled with fully autonomous car tests and premature “coming soon” pronouncements; 2022 will likely be the same.
Batteries get ever denser, ever more plentiful, and ever cheaper
Space travel becomes commonplace

Global semiconductor industry forecasts for 2022
https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20211229VL205.html

“2021 is the year that everyone remembered that chip mattered,” said Wired Magazine. So far 2022 seems likely to be another fruitful year for the semiconductor industry.

World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) also has predicted that the global semiconductor market is projected to grow by 8.8 percent in 2022, to US$ 601 billion, driven by double-digit growth of the sensors and logic category. All regions and all product categories are expected to continue positive growth. Wafer foundry manufacturers sales likely to remain strong due to tight supply. 5G smartphone silicon content increase to drive demand for foundry service higher. Demand for digital transformation is here to stay, no sign of weakening for foundry service sales.

The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated digital transformation over the past two years. Work from home, virtual conference, and remote learning have driven up the demand for cloud computing, laptops, and servers, and hence the sales growth of related semiconductor products. Demands for CPU, GPU, AI accelerator (including FPGA) foundry services will remain strong in 2022 because trends such as virtual conferences, live streaming, and large capex of data centers are likely to stay. Long-term demands for customized chips in IoT, 5G infrastructure, HPC, and EV applications, like ADAS, autonomous driving, V2X, in-Vehicle Infotainment, will provide robust growth momentum for chip foundry services.

Chip crunch is not ending in 2022, as the lead time of some electronic components is stretching into 2023. Meanwhile, the increasing adoption of RISC-V open standard instruction set architecture is an important trend that can not be ignored. RISC-V market will double its size in 2022, compared to 2021, as it is attracting small and medium-size chip designers and manufacturers, especially those in China. RISC-V designs are now being used by Qualcomm, Samsung, Google, Microchip, Nvidia, and more.

Taiwan’s chip industry emerges as a battlefront in US-China showdown
https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2022/01/01/2003770517

The country dominates production of chips used in almost all civilian and military technologies. That leaves the US and Chinese economies reliant on plants that would be in the line of fire in an attack on Taiwan. The vulnerability is stoking alarm in Washington

40 prosenttia pienempiä latureita
https://etn.fi/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=12981&via=n&datum=2021-12-20_14:53:12&mottagare=30929

The size of a standard mobile phone charger can be reduced by up to 40 percent when using GaN components or it can be designed to produce more power in the same size. GaN chargers are becoming the most popular charger technology for billions of devices, so it’s no wonder that European semiconductor giant STMicroelectronics is also excited about them.

1,018 Comments

  1. Tomi Engdahl says:

    No GPUs for you: US blocks sales of AI chips to China and Russia
    Government aims to “keep advanced technologies out of the wrong hands.”
    https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2022/09/us-restricts-sales-of-high-end-nvidia-ai-chips-to-china-and-russia/

    Reply
  2. Tomi Engdahl says:

    PCIe 6 -vastaanottoa testaamaan!
    https://etn.fi/index.php/13-news/14025-pcie-6-vastaanottoa-testaamaan

    Markkinoille on vasta alkanut ilmestymään PCIe 5.0 -liitäntää tukevia laitteita, mutta laitevalmistajat katsovat o seuraavaan standardiin. Mittauslaitevalmistajat Tektronix ja Anritsu ovat esitellet integroidun testausalustan PCIe 6.0 -vastaanottimelle.

    Ratkaisun myötä Tektronix tarjoaa yhtenäisen PCIe 6.0 -lähetin- ja -vastaanotintestiratkaisun, joka tarjoaa nopeammat testiajat, laadukkaammat mittaukset ja intuitiivisen käyttöliittymän, kuten yhtiö hehkuttaa. Alusta on yritysten vastaus PCIe6:n mukanaan tuomiin uusiin haasteisiin.

    PCIe-vastaanottimen validointi on tunnetusti vaikeaa, koska signaalin kalibrointi on vaativaa suurihäviöisen kanavan yli. Tektronixin PCIe-vastaanottimen testiratkaisut antavat luottamusta siihen, että mallit testataan perusteellisesti vaaditulla bittivirhesuhteella (BER). Työkalut opastavat testaajaa vaiheittain läpi linkkirutiinien, jotta varmistetaan vastaanottimen tarkka testaus.

    Tektronix PCIe 6.0 Base Rx Solution esimerkiksi Rx-kalibroinnin 64 gigasiirron PAM4-signalointia varten.

    Ratkaisu on tarjolla Tekin DPO70000SX-reaaliaikaskoopissa ja Anritsu MP1900A BERT:ssä. Lisätietoja löytyy täältä.

    https://www.tek.com/en/solutions/application/high-speed-serial-communications/pci-express

    Reply
  3. Tomi Engdahl says:

    NVIDIA Announces Jetson Orin Nano Modules, IGX Platform, Isaac Sim in the Cloud, and More at GTC ’22
    Jensen Huang outlines a major push for low-power edge AI, functionally-safe automation, autonomous robotics, and cloud-powered development.
    https://www.hackster.io/news/nvidia-announces-jetson-orin-nano-modules-igx-platform-isaac-sim-in-the-cloud-and-more-at-gtc-22-6b123d4f990c

    NVIDIA has announced a range of new products from its embedded, automation, and robotics arm during its GPU Technology Conference keynote today — including the new Jetson Orin Nano module and IGX edge AI platforms.

    “Computing is advancing at incredible speeds, the engine propelling this rocket is accelerated computing, and its fuel is AI [Artificial Intelligence],” NVIDIA founder and chief executive Jensen Huang claimed during his keynote speech at the GTC event today. “Today, we [announce] new chips, new advances to our platforms, and, for the very first time, new cloud services. These platforms propel new breakthroughs in AI, new applications of AI, and the next wave of AI for science and industry.”

    Reply
  4. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Inflation-Adjusted Income for U.S. Engineers Drops Insights from IEEE-USA’s annual salary survey, in six charts
    https://spectrum.ieee.org/electrical-engineer-salary

    HOW MUCH DOES a tech professional in the United States earn? In 2021, the median income of U.S. engineers and other tech professionals who were IEEE members hit US $160,097, up from $154,443 in 2020. That bump in pay is revealed in the IEEE-USA 2022 Salary & Benefits Survey.

    This apparent increase turns into a nearly $3,500 dip, however, when converted to real dollars [see chart, below]. It’s the first significant dip in median tech salary in terms of spending power recorded by IEEE-USA since 2013.

    Reply
  5. Tomi Engdahl says:

    https://hackaday.com/2022/09/21/floppy-disk-sales-are-higher-density-than-you-might-think/

    Floppies may be big in Japan, but nostalgic and/or needful Stateside floppy enthusiasts needn’t fret — just use AOL keyword point that browser toward floppydisk.com. There, you can buy new floppies of all sizes, both new and old, recycle your disks, or send them in to get all that precious vintage stuff transferred off of them.

    https://www.floppydisk.com/

    Reply
  6. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Inflation-Adjusted Income for U.S. Engineers Drops Insights from IEEE-USA’s annual salary survey, in six charts
    https://spectrum.ieee.org/electrical-engineer-salary

    Reply
  7. Tomi Engdahl says:

    YouTube Shorts could steal TikTok’s thunder with a better deal for creators
    If you pay them, they will come
    https://techcrunch.com/2022/09/17/youtube-shorts-could-steal-tiktoks-thunder-with-a-better-deal-for-creators/

    Reply
  8. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Rita Liao / TechCrunch:
    Alibaba Cloud, the world’s third-largest public cloud provider in 2021 with a 9.5% market share, commits $1B to boost overseas alliances over three years
    https://techcrunch.com/2022/09/22/alibaba-cloud-1-billion-international/

    Alibaba is known for its sprawling e-commerce empire, but like Amazon, cloud service has been a big driver of its revenues in recent years.

    The Chinese cloud giant is ready to double down on its overseas reach and announced today a $1 billion investment in a “global partner ecosystem upgrade.” Alibaba Cloud is now the world’s third-largest public cloud provider, an achievement that’s inseparable from the large network of local allies it’s formed worldwide.

    The company is constantly recruiting local partners to take on responsibilities such as sales, technical support and customer services. The $1 billion initiative is meant to “support partners’ technology innovation and their market expansion with Alibaba Cloud in the coming three fiscal years,” the company said. The money will come in both financial and non-financial incentives, including funding, rebates and go-to-market initiatives.

    Alibaba Cloud currently has around 11,000 partners worldwide, including Salesforce, VMware, Fortinet, IBM and Neo4j.

    Alibaba Cloud enjoyed a 9.5% market share in 2021, trailing Microsoft (21%) and Amazon (39%), according to market research firm Gartner.

    Reply
  9. Tomi Engdahl says:

    How a chip war puts nations in a technology arms race
    https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/semiconductors-chip-war-taiwan-us-exports-restrictions-china-tensions-2957116

    The crushingly complex, high-stakes business of making semiconductors has always been a battle between global giants. Now it is also a race among governments.

    These critical bits of technology — also known as integrated circuits or, more commonly, just chips — may be the tiniest yet most exacting products ever manufactured. And because they are so difficult and costly to produce, there is a worldwide reliance on just a handful of companies.

    That dependence has been brought into stark relief by shortages during the pandemic and by a ratcheting up of US restrictions on chip exports to China amid rising tensions around trade and security.

    Tens of billions of dollars will be spent in the coming years in a dash to expand production, with geopolitical as well as economic fallout.

    Why the war over chips?
    Chipmaking has become an increasingly precarious business. New plants have a price tag of up to US$20 billion, take years to build and need to be run flat-out for 24 hours a day to turn a profit.

    Why are chips so critical?
    They are the thing that makes electronic items smart. Made from materials deposited on disks of silicon, chips can perform a variety of functions.

    Memory chips, which store data, are relatively simple and are traded like commodities. Logic chips, which run programs and act as the brains of a device, are more complex and expensive.

    Is the world short of computer chips?
    Pandemic lockdowns and supply-chain shortages made many types of chips scarce for a period of about two years. That event helped usher in this new era, with an increasing realisation of their strategic importance. Now that PC and phone demand is cooling off post-pandemic — and much of the world is falling into a recession — the cycle has turned.

    Chipmakers are warning of a glut in certain areas, though some customers including carmakers are still struggling to get enough. Yet for political reasons chipmakers are still poised to add capacity at a time of shaky demand – which could further upend the industry.

    Reply
  10. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Microsoft-pomo: Lopettakaa uusien c-/c++-projektien aloittaminen
    https://www.tivi.fi/uutiset/microsoft-pomo-lopettakaa-uusien-c-c-projektien-aloittaminen/21b9447f-ed89-40ca-80b2-acdbdef36254

    Azuren teknologiajohtajana Microsoftilla työskentelevä Mark Russinovich ilmaisi varsin suorasti mielipiteensä ohjelmointikielistä Twitterissä taannoin. Hän näyttää saaneen tarpeekseen c:llä tai c++:lla kirjoitetuista projekteista.

    Russinovich kirjoitti, että on aika lopettaa uudet c:hen tai c++:aan perustuvat projektit ja käyttää rustia niissä tilanteissa, kun tarvitaan kieltä, jossa ei ole automaattista roskienkeräystä.

    Azure-pomon mukaan kyse on turvallisuudesta ja luotettavuudesta ja että koko alan tulisi julistaa c ja c++ vanhentuneiksi.

    Rust on usean vuoden ajan kasvattanut suosiotaan ja saanut jalansijaa monien suurten yhtiöiden tekemisissä. Niin Amazon, Google kuin Microsoft ovat kaikki alkaneet käyttää rustia kehitystöissään. Koodaajien suosikiksi se on noussut eri kyselyissä jo useiden vuosien ajan.

    Myös Linuxin kernel on saamassa rustia sisäänsä

    Reply
  11. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Linus Torvalds talks Rust on Linux, his work schedule and life with his M2 MacBook Air
    At the 2022 Linux Plumbers Conference, Torvalds and I have a chance to sit down and talk again about life, Linux and scuba diving.
    https://www.zdnet.com/article/linus-torvalds-talks-rust-on-linux-his-work-schedule-and-life-with-his-m2-macbook-air/

    Reply
  12. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Radxa Announces ROCK5 CM5 Alternative to Raspberry Pi’s CM4, Teases NVIDIA Jetson-Compatible NX5 Too
    Eight-core Rockchip RK3588 really packs in the power, offering up to 16GB of RAM and a 6 TOPS neural network coprocessor.
    https://www.hackster.io/news/radxa-announces-rock5-cm5-alternative-to-raspberry-pi-s-cm4-teases-nvidia-jetson-compatible-nx5-too-4fb4ee088b99

    Reply
  13. Tomi Engdahl says:

    What has Broadcom become?
    The truth is Broadcom is not a semiconductor company. Nor is it a software company. It is a private equity fund…
    https://www.techspot.com/news/95573-what-has-broadcom-become.html

    Editor’s take: Broadcom was once a leading semiconductor company, and then it started buying enterprise software companies. The finance people recognize Broadcom for it is, and while the technology people recognize it as well, they just do not want to accept it. And we cannot blame them for that sentiment.

    Reply
  14. Tomi Engdahl says:

    The ‘last man’ selling floppy-disks says airlines continue to make orders for the ancient storage technology
    https://www.businessinsider.com/last-floppy-disk-seller-airlines-still-order-storage-2022-9

    Tom Persky, founder of floppydisk.com, sells and recycles the archaic storage devices.
    He says in a new book that the airline industry is one of his biggest customers.
    “Probably half of the air fleet in the world today is more than 20 years old,” he said.
    The archaic floppy disk apparently isn’t as obsolete as we thought in the US.

    While they’re a relic of another time, at least one industry is still interested in the storage devices, according to the person who claims to be “last man standing in the floppy disk business.”

    “My biggest customers — and the place where most of the money comes from — are the industrial users,”

    Persky added: “Take the airline industry for example. Probably half of the air fleet in the world today is more than 20 years old and still uses floppy disks in some of the avionics. That’s a huge consumer.”

    He also said that the medical sector still uses floppy disks. And then there’s “hobbyists,” who want to “buy ten, 20, or maybe 50 floppy disks.”

    Floppy disks made news recently when Japan’s digital minister, Taro Kano, declared “a war” on the devices, tweeting earlier this month that Japan’s digital agency would change regulations requiring businesses to use floppy disks and CDs, instead shifting to online services.

    Reply
  15. Tomi Engdahl says:

    https://etn.fi/index.php/13-news/14039-autoihin-menee-jo-joka-kolmas-mikro-ohjain

    Mikro-ohjaimia myydään vuonna 2026 jo 27 miljardilla dollarilla, tietää tutkimuslaitos Yple Developpement kertoa. Useampi kuin joka kolmas näistä menee autoihin eli osaksi auton kasvavaa elektroniikkaa.

    Autot ovat jo nyt selvästi suurin sektori mikro-ohjaimille. Tänä vuonna autoihin menee 32 prosenttia ohjainsiruista, joten osuus kasvaa koko ajan. Viisi suurinta mikro-ohjainten toimittajaa ovat NXP, Renesas, Infineon, STMicroelectronics ja Microchip.

    Reply
  16. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Ben Thompson / Stratechery:
    A look at Nvidia’s issues, including crypto mining demand drying up and GPUs flooding secondary markets, and opportunities, including gaming and data centers

    Nvidia In the Valley
    https://stratechery.com/2022/nvidia-in-the-valley/

    Three big things happened to Nvidia’s business over the last three years that drove the price to unprecedented heights:

    The pandemic led to an explosion in PC buying generally and gaming cards specifically, as customers had both the need for new computers and a huge increase in discretional income with nowhere to spend it beyond better game experiences.
    Machine learning applications, which were trained on Nvidia GPUs, exploded amongst the hyperscalers.
    The crypto bubble led to skyrocketing demand for Nvidia chips to solve Ethereum proof-of-work equations to earn — i.e. mine — Ether.

    Crypto isn’t so much a valley as it is a cliff: Ethereum successfully transitioned to a proof-of-stake model, rendering entire mining operations, built with thousands of Nvidia GPUs, worthless overnight; given that Bitcoin, the other major crypto network to use proof-of-work, is almost exclusively mined on custom-designed chips, all of those old GPUs are flooding the second-hand market. This is particularly bad timing for Nvidia given that the pandemic buying spree ended just as the company’s attempt to catch up on demand for its 3000-series of chips were coming to fruition. Needless to say, too much new inventory plus too much used inventory is terrible for a company’s financial results

    Reply
  17. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Yksi yritys hallitsee DRAM-moduuleissa
    https://etn.fi/index.php/13-news/14048-yksi-yritys-hallitsee-dram-moduuleissa

    Kingston on edelleen selvä ykkönen DRAM-muistikampojen toimittajana. TrendForcen mukaan yhtiön hallussa on 78,7 prosenttia DRAM-moduulien markkinoista. Yhtiö on ollut ykkösvalmistaja o 19 vuotta peräjälkeen.

    TrendForcen raportin mukaan maailman viiden suurimman valmistajan osuus kokonaismyynnistä vuonna 2021 oli 90 prosenttia. Kingston onnistui kasvattamaan myyntiään viime vuonna 8 prosenttia, mikä osin selittyi koronapandemialla. Kun ihmisten etätyö yleistyi, kotona tarvittiin uusia tietokoneita, mikä vauhditti tietenkin myös DRAM-moduulien myyntiä.

    Koronapandemian hellittäessä PC-myynti kuitenkin hidastuu. Tämä syö myös DRAM-moduulien menekkiä.

    Reply

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