Tech trends 2023

Here is collection of some predictions for year 2023. This is a collection of links to prediction articles followed by a short quote or quotes of what I see the main points in them.

Ennuste vuodelle 2023: Ongelmat helpottavat

“After a couple of exceptional years, the electronics market, challenged by the pandemic and pent-up demand, has signs of a calmer ride on the horizon. Mouser’s Mark Burr-Lonnon predicts slower, but more predictable growth”
“According to World Semiconductor Trade Statistics, the global semiconductor market will grow by 13.9 percent in 2022 and continue to grow by 4.6 percent in 2023. While these statistics show that global demand for semiconductors is slowing, they still show steady growth in all key regions of the world as the electronics industry begins to settle into a more manageable state of equilibrium.”

AMD, Intel, and Nvidia Reportedly Slash Orders with TSMC

“Large customers revise orders to TSMC due to the economy slowdown.”
“According to the report, virtually all TSMC clients will experience a downturn and have to cut orders, so TSMC’s utilization will decline significantly in Q1 2023. For example, the utilization rate of TSMC’s N7-capable lines (7nm, 6nm-class technologies) will decline to around 50% in early 2023. Furthermore, even TSMC’s N5/N4-capable lines will be underutilized”

Tech That Will Change Your Life in 2023

“Big layoffs at Meta, Amazon, Snap and others? A global crypto fraud set in the Bahamas? Elon Musk buying and running Twitter? Look, not even Nostradamus could have seen all that coming.”
“The Metaverse, Now More Than Just Meta. For the last two years, we’ve said this is the year for virtual and augmented reality. But in 2023 we’re confident: headsets that give you a choice of VR (where you’re in a virtual world) and AR (where the virtual is overlaid in your real world) are coming. And they won’t just be from Meta, current holder of 90% of the VR market, according to research firm IDC.”
“Tech companies and their investors are grappling with the industry’s biggest downturn since at least 2008. The result is layoffs and hiring freezes at companies large and small. The PC and chip industries in particular have been clobbered by the biggest drop in sales in more than two decades. And while many survivors of past tech downturns preach that cuts should be deep, fast and early, it appears that the pain for tech workers will continue into 2023.”
“Account moochers, beware: The Netflix password crackdown is coming in early 2023. Netflix is the first streamer with an enforcement policy.”
“China and the U.S. are so interdependent—for manufacturing of smartphones and other electronics, for EV batteries and solar panels, for raw materials and intellectual property—it seems impossible they could go their separate ways with their own parallel supply chains and production bases. Yet it’s happening.”
“Artificial Intelligence Finds Real Use”
“Smart Home Gets Easier-ish”
“European Union legislation is changing Apple’s smartphones.”

Digipelaaminen ja e-pelimediat entistä suositumpia – kännykkäpelaaminen ei kasva enää

“Digital gaming and the consumption of game-related media content is increasingly popular, according to the Gamer Barometer 2022 study conducted at the University of Tampere. An increasing proportion of Finns play digital games at least occasionally, but the number of active mobile players is no longer growing at the previous pace.
Active mobile gaming has for the first time in the history of Gamer Barometers turned into a slight decrease, but still 59 percent of Finns still occasionally play mobile games.”

Xiaomin uusin sisältää tekniikkaa, jota ei ole vielä edes standardoitu

“Wi-Fi 7 support is of course interesting, when the IEEE standard is apparently not being completed until around 2024. Next year, however, a number of Wi-Fi 7-compatible smartphones will be introduced to the market. Xiaomi’s 13 Pro will probably be the first of them. Its arrival in Finland and prices will be revealed later.”

The tech IPO market collapsed in 2022, and next year doesn’t look much better

3 views: Predicting 2023’s key startup themes

“Anna Heim: The rise of API-first startups will continue in 2023
I am convinced that API-first will be a major trend in 2023, with this approach being both more widespread than it was previously, as well as more successful than less API-heavy options.
That APIs are on the rise isn’t exactly new — but API-first startups are a subgroup in this world, and one that is enjoying tailwinds.”

C++ meni Javan ohi

“The software company Tiobe measures the popularity of programming languages with its famous index, which measures search engine searches. Changes on the list happen slowly, but in December something happened right at the top of the list. C++ became the third most popular language over Java.”
“It’s not a trivial change, as C++ overtook Java for the first time in history. The top of the list is unchanged. Python and C are clearly in a class of their own.”

Sanna Marin: EU:n pitää katkaista teknologinen riippuvuus Kiinasta

“In an interview with Slush CEO Eerika Savolainen, Marin demanded that Europe break its technological dependence on China.
- We cannot depend on China. Economic relations should not be severed, but we cannot be in a position where an authoritarian country operating with a different logic is able to blackmail us, Marin said.
- I am afraid that we will make the same mistake with technology and digitality as with energy. We thought that a close economic relationship would prevent war, but we were wrong.”

Kyberturvan ammattilaisista on huutava pula

“There is an acute shortage of cyber security professionals. There is an estimated global shortage of three million professionals.”

Innovators 2023
These are some of the innovators and leaders in the electronics technology space.

Ennuste vuodelle 2023: Ongelmat helpottavat

“the demand for smarter and more networked products and systems has also spread to business-to-business sectors, where digitization and the emergence of the fourth industrial revolution have begun to take over the sector. For example, in manufacturing, the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT), characterized by interconnected sensors, communication/data transfer, and advanced data analytics, has transformed the efficiency of production processes in the factory. The IIoT depends on highly advanced integrated circuits that provide intelligence for sensing, measurement and monitoring, power management, control and communication.”

1,139 Comments

  1. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Three gaming-focused Linux operating systems beat Windows 11 in gaming benchmarks
    News
    By Aaron Klotz published 1 day ago
    All three Linux distros managed to beat Windows 11 while using Vavle’s Proton compatibility layer.
    https://www.tomshardware.com/software/linux/three-gaming-focused-linux-operating-systems-beat-windows-11-in-gaming-benchmarks

    Reply
  2. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Apple holds 5 percent of Arm’s annual revenue as it pays less than 30 cents per chip for all devices

    Despite ARM’s Urge To Negotiate, Apple Still Pays Less Than 30 Cents In Royalties Per Chip
    https://wccftech.com/apple-pays-30-cents-per-chip-in-royalties-to-arm/?fbclid=IwAR3HcsAbCI81rfMmLDdDpoju__J3mCEodZdDcyCbyRx2xDvDa574LaOe558

    Apple has gradually shifted to its custom silicon from Intel-based chips. The company is not limiting itself to developing processors but modems as well. However, it was recently reported that the company plans to forgo its attempts in the 5G modem business. A new report sheds light on Apple’s deal with British chip architect Arm, stating that the Cupertino giant pays less than 30 cents per chip in royalties. Apple is possibly Arm’s most prominent and promising customer, and how the two companies will move forward remains to be seen.

    Apple holds 5 percent of Arm’s annual revenue as it pays less than 30 cents per chip for all devices
    Apple holds 5 percent of Arm’s annual revenue, which is not much but does impact the whole market. Apple licenses the under-the-hood technology from Arm, which it uses in its iPhone, iPad, Mac, Apple TV, Apple Watch, and even the HomePod. However, according to a new report from The Information, Apple only pays less than 30 cents in royalties per chip, irrespective of the device. Moreover, the deal also does not consider the chip’s core count.

    However, Arm was unhappy about the deal, and it has continued offering Apple the same prices. Back in 2017, the owner of Arm, Softbank, reignited the agreement and wanted to negotiate the license fee from Apple. The company CEO stated that Apple pays more for the plastic that secures the panels on new iPhone models than its license fee. Softbank tried to negotiate the price of royalties, but it was unsuccessful.

    Apple currently signed a new licensing agreement with Arm in September that stretches “beyond 2040.” Arm continues negotiating an increase in the licensing fee, but it remains to be seen if Apple will reach a mutual conclusion. Note that Apple would want to extend its relationship with Arm for decades. On the side, the company is exploring open-source RISC-V technology. If the company succeeds in its attempts, it will potentially cut ties with Arm. However, these are mere speculations as Apple Silicon depends on Arm.

    Apple revolutionized the industry with its M-series of chips in 2020, and the company has gradually shifted to its custom silicon entirely. Recently, the company announced its M3, M3 Pro, and M3 Max chips for the new 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro models.

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  3. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Makers, rejoice! Make: Magazine’s Guide to Boards 2024 features “a Cambrian explosion of microcontrollers and single-board computers” from the last year, including the new Arduino UNO R4 WiFi, Nano ESP32, and Portenta X8.

    Find the perfect board for your next project: https://www.digikey.com/en/maker/resources/boards-guide

    Reply
  4. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Odotettu käänne tapahtuu vihdoin kännykkämarkkinoilla
    https://etn.fi/index.php/13-news/15625-odotettu-kaeaenne-tapahtuu-vihdoin-kaennykkaemarkkinoilla

    Tänä vuonna myydään 1,16 miljardia uutta älypuhelinta. Määrä on 3,5 prosenttia pienempi kuin viime vuonna. IDC-tutkimuslaitoksen mukaan vuoden viimeisellä neljänneksellä tapahtuu kuitenkin valmistajien pitkään odottama käänne, kun markkina kääntyy kasvuun pitkän taantuman jälkeen.

    IDC:n mukaan älypuhelintoimitukset kasvavat neljännellä vuosineljänneksellä 7,3 prosenttia. Markkinoiden elpyminen jatkuu ensi vuonna 3,8 prosentin kasvulla. Vuosille 2024-2027 tutkimuslaitos ennustaa ”muutaman prosentin kasvua”.

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  5. Tomi Engdahl says:

    https://etn.fi/index.php/13-news/15607-maksaisitko-ostoksesi-sormuksella

    Yhä useampi ei käytä enää käteistä rahaa maksamiseen ja pian on vuoro päästä eroon korteistakin. Näin uskoo ainakin englantilainen DIGISEQ, joka on yhdessä Infineonin kanssa kehittänyt maailman ensimmäinen sertifioitu alusta maksusormuksen kehittämiseen.

    Alusta on käytännössä sormuksen pohja, jolle DISISEQ on saanut Mastercard-sertifioinnin ensimmäisenä maailmassa. Kun alusta on valmiiksi sertifioitu, niin pienet startupit kuin suuret yritykset voivat nopeasti tuoda maksusormuksia markkinoille. Alustarenkaaseen on valmiiksi integroitu Infineonin suojatut NFC-piirit.

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  6. Tomi Engdahl says:

    China’s Loongson debuts processor that ‘matches Intel silicon circa 2020′
    Best not to dismiss it, as Asus looks to be onboard and advances are promised
    https://www.theregister.com/2023/11/30/loongson_3a6000/

    Reply
  7. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Photonic chips can calculate optimal shape of light for next-gen wireless systems
    https://phys.org/news/2023-11-photonic-chips-optimal-next-gen-wireless.html

    Reply
  8. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Video of ceramic storage system prototype surfaces online — 10,000TB cartridges bombarded with laser rays could become mainstream by 2030, making slow hard drives and tapes obsolete
    News
    By Keumars Afifi-Sabet published 5 days ago
    Ceramics-based storage medium consumes very little energy and lasts more than 5,000 years, creators say
    https://www.techradar.com/pro/video-of-ceramic-storage-system-prototype-surfaces-online-10000tb-cartridges-bombarded-with-laser-rays-could-become-mainstream-by-2030-making-slow-hard-drives-and-tapes-obsolete

    Reply
  9. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Orange Pi teams up with Huawei to create a SBC for AI development — Huawei Ascend chip delivers 8/20 TOPS of AI performance
    News
    By Zhiye Liu published 4 days ago
    Meet the new Orange Pi AIpro.
    https://www.tomshardware.com/raspberry-pi/orange-pi-teams-up-with-huawei-to-create-a-sbc-for-ai-development-huawei-ascend-chip-delivers-820-tops-of-ai-performance

    Reply
  10. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Cloudflare Teases Next-Gen Server Design, Benefits Going From 1U To 2U Servers
    https://www.phoronix.com/news/Cloudflare-Gen12-Server

    Written by Michael Larabel in Hardware on 2 December 2023 at 06:52 AM EST. 13 Comments
    HARDWARETwo years ago Cloudflare rolled out their “Gen 11″ server fleet built around AMD EPYC Milan processors and on Friday the company began talking about their forthcoming “Gen 12″ server designs that will soon be rolling out across their data centers for powering this widely-used web infrastructure.

    Cloudflare’s blog is often home to a lot of interesting technical insight from this leading web company. While Cloudflare has long leveraged 1U server designs, with their Gen12 servers they are moving to a 2U design due to the increased power/thermal requirements of the latest-generation server processors from AMD and Intel.

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  11. Tomi Engdahl says:

    A few Windows laptops are already powered by ARM CPUs rather than Intel ones, but we can expect to see a lot more in the future. A new report says that Microsoft is accelerating efforts to overcome the current limitations of these, so that more PC brands can follow Apple’s example in using ARM chips ……

    https://9to5mac.com/2023/12/04/more-windows-laptops-to-be-arm/?fbclid=IwAR1F1RfbP4_Jjfua8_0T_2VrqKlOC4_lGC2eqoEQkySkXA_Aebvl9rq9KdM

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  12. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Aaron Klotz / Tom’s Hardware:
    Intel publishes and then removes “Core Truths”, a document calling AMD products “snake oil” for using the older Zen 2 architecture in new Ryzen 7000 mobile CPUs — Look in the mirror Intel — Intel recently published a new playbook titled “Core Truths” …

    Intel calls AMD’s chips ‘Snake Oil’ for putting antiquated Zen 2 architecture in modern Ryzen 7000 mobile CPUs, but Intel also uses similar marketing tactics
    https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/cpus/intel-calls-amds-chips-snake-oil-for-putting-antiquated-zen-2-architecture-in-modern-ryzen-7000-mobile-cpus-but-intel-also-uses-similar-marketing-tactics

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  13. Tomi Engdahl says:

    X is now licensed for payment processing in a dozen US states
    https://techcrunch.com/2023/12/05/x-is-now-licensed-for-payment-processing-in-a-dozen-u-s-states/?fbclid=IwAR32-H3rLEG59fwHPsXsLK4begvNRCHh7tuyp76GjhHNv7Vz2HV4wdTCrxs

    Elon Musk is moving forward with his plans to turn the company formerly known as Twitter, now called X, into an “everything app” that includes its own payments system. The company in late November was granted three additional money transmitter licenses in the U.S. states of South Dakota (on November 27), Kansas (on November 28) and Wyoming (on November 30), bringing the total number of states where the company is allowed to engage in money transfers to 12.

    The other states where the company had previously been granted a money transmitter license include Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire and Rhode Island. All of the states were licensed this year, starting with New Hampshire on June 29.

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  14. Tomi Engdahl says:

    AMD’s Next GPU Is a 3D-Integrated Superchip The MI300 makes 13 pieces of silicon behave as one chip
    https://spectrum.ieee.org/amd-mi300

    Reply
  15. Tomi Engdahl says:

    DARPA-Funded Research Leads to Quantum Computing Breakthrough
    Harvard-led team develops novel logical qubits to enable scalable quantum computers
    https://www.darpa.mil/news-events/2023-12-06

    Reply
  16. Tomi Engdahl says:

    China poised to break 5nm barrier — Huawei lists 5nm processor presumably built with SMIC tech, defying U.S. sanctions
    News
    By Anton Shilov published 1 day ago
    Huawei and SMIC quietly rolled out a new Kirin 9000C processor.
    https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/china-poised-to-break-5nm-barrier-huawei-lists-5nm-processor-presumably-built-with-smic-tech-defying-us-sanctions

    Reply
  17. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Japanese engineers break record, 20x global internet traffic per second
    Japanese engineers have clocked a data transmission rate of 22.9 petabits per second, thanks to a new optical fiber.
    https://interestingengineering.com/innovation/japan-20x-global-internet-traffic

    Reply
  18. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Wall Street Journal:
    New York, IBM, Micron, and others plan to invest $10B in a chip research facility at the University at Albany, set to buy ASML’s advanced chip-making equipment

    New York Joins IBM, Micron in $10 Billion Chip Research Complex
    Planned facility to include advanced chip-making equipment made by ASML
    https://www.wsj.com/tech/new-york-joins-ibm-micron-in-10-billion-chip-research-complex-475437b3?mod=followamazon

    New York state is joining chip companies to invest $10 billion in a semiconductor research facility at the University at Albany that is set to include some of the most advanced chip-making equipment in the world.

    NY Creates, a nonprofit that oversees the Albany NanoTech Complex where the facility is to be built, will coordinate its construction. It will also use state funds to acquire chip-making equipment from ASML Holding ASML 1.97%increase; green up pointing triangle

    , a Dutch company whose machines can cost hundreds of millions of dollars and are key to making the most advanced chips possible.

    Once the machinery is installed, the project and its partners will begin work on next-generation chip manufacturing there, according to New York Gov. Kathy Hochul’s office. The partners include tech giant IBM IBM 0.57%increase; green up pointing triangle
    , memory manufacturer Micron Technology MU 3.87%increase; green up pointing triangle
    , as well as chip-manufacturing equipment makers Applied Materials AMAT 5.07%increase; green up pointing triangle
    and Tokyo Electron 8035 3.44%increase; green up pointing triangle
    .

    Reply
  19. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Financial Times:
    Dealroom: Nvidia is the most active large-scale investor in AI startups in 2023, excluding accelerator funds like YC, with 35 deals, almost 6x more than in 2022 — US chipmaker takes stakes in groups that are also its customers in effort to ‘lock up the market’

    Nvidia emerges as leading investor in AI companies
    US chipmaker takes stakes in groups that are also its customers in effort to ‘lock up the market’
    https://www.ft.com/content/25337df3-5b98-4dd1-b7a9-035dcc130d6a

    Nvidia, the world’s most valuable chipmaker, has become one of the most prolific investors in artificial intelligence start-ups this year, seeking to capitalise on its position as the dominant provider of AI processors.

    Silicon Valley-based Nvidia said on Monday it had invested in “more than two dozen” companies this year, from big new AI platforms valued in the billions of dollars to smaller start-ups applying AI to industries such as healthcare or energy.

    According to estimates by Dealroom, which tracks venture capital investments, Nvidia participated in 35 deals in 2023, almost six times more than last year.

    That made the chipmaker the most active large-scale investor in AI in a banner year for dealmaking in the sector, outstripping Silicon Valley’s largest venture firms such as Andreessen Horowitz and Sequoia, according to Dealroom, excluding small-scale accelerator funds such as Y Combinator that place many smaller bets.

    “Broadly, for Nvidia, the number one criteria [for making start-up investments] is relevancy,” Mohamed Siddeek, head of its dedicated venture arm NVentures, told the Financial Times.
    “Companies that use our technology, who depend on our technology, who build their businesses on our technology . . . I can’t think of a situation where we’ve invested in a company that did not use Nvidia products.”

    Between NVentures and its corporate development team, Nvidia’s portfolio now includes Inflection AI and Cohere, two of the biggest rivals to ChatGPT maker OpenAI.

    Reply
  20. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Financial Times:
    A look at the race among chip giants to make 2nm chips, as Samsung and Intel identify the next leap in chip manufacturing as a chance to close the gap with TSMC — TSMC, Samsung and Intel battle to create ‘2 nanometre’ chips in moves that will shape the future of $500bn industry

    Semiconductor giants race to make next generation of cutting-edge chips
    TSMC, Samsung and Intel battle to create ‘2 nanometre’ chips in moves that will shape the future of $500bn industry
    https://www.ft.com/content/e9be182f-ec9e-4426-9cd2-d5181fd64778

    The world’s leading semiconductor companies are racing to make so-called “2 nanometre” processor chips that will power the next generation of smartphones, data centres and artificial intelligence.

    Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company remains the analysts’ favourite to maintain its global supremacy in the sector, but Samsung Electronics and Intel have identified the industry’s next leap forward as a chance to close the gap.

    For decades, chipmakers have sought to make ever more compact products. The smaller the transistors on a chip, the lower the energy consumption and the higher their speed. Today, terms such as “2 nanometre” and “3 nanometre” are widely used as shorthand for each new generation of chip, rather than a semiconductor’s actual physical dimensions.

    Any company that opens up a technological lead in the next generation of advanced semiconductors will be well placed to dominate an industry that pulled in well over $500bn in global chip sales last year. That is projected to grow further due to a surge in demand for the data centre chips that power generative AI services.

    Reply
  21. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Global Semiconductor Sales Increase 3.9% Month-to-Month in October; Annual Sales Projected to Increase 13.1% in 2024
    https://www.semiconductors.org/global-semiconductor-sales-increase-3-9-month-to-month-in-october-annual-sales-projected-to-increase-13-1-in-2024/

    Reply
  22. Tomi Engdahl says:

    https://etn.fi/index.php/13-news/15560-amd-toi-massiivisen-tehon-sulautettuihin

    AMD on esitellyt uuden prosessoriperheen sulautettuihin sovelluksiin. Ryzen 7000 -sarja tuo PC-prosessoreista tutut Zen 4 -ytimet, tehokkaan Radeon-grafiikan ja jopa 28 linjan PCIe 5 -liitännät teollisuuslaitteiden käyttöön.

    Reply
  23. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Programmable or ‘purpose-bound’ money is coming, probably as a feature in central bank digital currencies
    Governments may dictate where or when you use it, but it’s not a gift card
    https://www.theregister.com/2023/12/21/programmable_money/

    Reply
  24. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Jopa 240 miljoonaa Windows-laitetta päätymässä kaatikselle
    https://www.tivi.fi/uutiset/jopa-240-miljoonaa-windows-laitetta-paatymassa-kaatikselle/a09d1b87-df8a-4f17-9f7c-69efdeb6a7e3

    Windows 10:n tuen päättyminen saattaa täyttää kaatopaikat.

    Kun Windows 10:n tukiaika päättyy lokakuussa 2025, on moni käyttökelpoisen tietokoneen omistaja vaikeuksissa. Windows 11 ei ole virallisesti yhteensopiva vanhempien laitteiden kanssa.

    Vaikka käyttöjärjestelmä onkin asennettavissa suojaukset kiertämällä, ei tämä monilta tavallisilta tietokoneen käyttäjiltä tule onnistumaan.

    Reply
  25. Tomi Engdahl says:

    AMD Ryzen 8000G “Hawk Point” Desktop APU Specs Confirmed: 8700G, 8600G, 8500G, 8300G For AM5
    https://wccftech.com/amd-ryzen-8000g-hawk-point-desktop-apu-specs-confirmed-8700g-8600g-8500g-8300g-am5/

    Reply
  26. Tomi Engdahl says:

    The only Chinese chipmaker with an x86 license releases surprisingly modern new chips made with a mystery process node — Zhaoxin KX-7000 CPU launches with eight cores, 3.7GHz clocks, PCIe 4.0, DDR5 memory support, and chiplet-based design
    https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/cpus/chinese-chipmaker-with-x86-license-releases-surprisingly-modern-new-chips-made-with-a-mystery-process-node-xhaoxin-kx-7000-cpu-launches-with-eight-cores-37ghz-clocks-pcie-40-and-ddr5-memory-support

    Reply

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