Here is collection of some predictions for year 2023. This is a collection of links to prediction articles followed by a short quote or quotes of what I see the main points in them.
Ennuste vuodelle 2023: Ongelmat helpottavat
“After a couple of exceptional years, the electronics market, challenged by the pandemic and pent-up demand, has signs of a calmer ride on the horizon. Mouser’s Mark Burr-Lonnon predicts slower, but more predictable growth”
“According to World Semiconductor Trade Statistics, the global semiconductor market will grow by 13.9 percent in 2022 and continue to grow by 4.6 percent in 2023. While these statistics show that global demand for semiconductors is slowing, they still show steady growth in all key regions of the world as the electronics industry begins to settle into a more manageable state of equilibrium.”
AMD, Intel, and Nvidia Reportedly Slash Orders with TSMC
“Large customers revise orders to TSMC due to the economy slowdown.”
“According to the report, virtually all TSMC clients will experience a downturn and have to cut orders, so TSMC’s utilization will decline significantly in Q1 2023. For example, the utilization rate of TSMC’s N7-capable lines (7nm, 6nm-class technologies) will decline to around 50% in early 2023. Furthermore, even TSMC’s N5/N4-capable lines will be underutilized”
Tech That Will Change Your Life in 2023
“Big layoffs at Meta, Amazon, Snap and others? A global crypto fraud set in the Bahamas? Elon Musk buying and running Twitter? Look, not even Nostradamus could have seen all that coming.”
“The Metaverse, Now More Than Just Meta. For the last two years, we’ve said this is the year for virtual and augmented reality. But in 2023 we’re confident: headsets that give you a choice of VR (where you’re in a virtual world) and AR (where the virtual is overlaid in your real world) are coming. And they won’t just be from Meta, current holder of 90% of the VR market, according to research firm IDC.”
“Tech companies and their investors are grappling with the industry’s biggest downturn since at least 2008. The result is layoffs and hiring freezes at companies large and small. The PC and chip industries in particular have been clobbered by the biggest drop in sales in more than two decades. And while many survivors of past tech downturns preach that cuts should be deep, fast and early, it appears that the pain for tech workers will continue into 2023.”
“Account moochers, beware: The Netflix password crackdown is coming in early 2023. Netflix is the first streamer with an enforcement policy.”
“China and the U.S. are so interdependent—for manufacturing of smartphones and other electronics, for EV batteries and solar panels, for raw materials and intellectual property—it seems impossible they could go their separate ways with their own parallel supply chains and production bases. Yet it’s happening.”
“Artificial Intelligence Finds Real Use”
“Smart Home Gets Easier-ish”
“European Union legislation is changing Apple’s smartphones.”
Digipelaaminen ja e-pelimediat entistä suositumpia – kännykkäpelaaminen ei kasva enää
“Digital gaming and the consumption of game-related media content is increasingly popular, according to the Gamer Barometer 2022 study conducted at the University of Tampere. An increasing proportion of Finns play digital games at least occasionally, but the number of active mobile players is no longer growing at the previous pace.
Active mobile gaming has for the first time in the history of Gamer Barometers turned into a slight decrease, but still 59 percent of Finns still occasionally play mobile games.”
Xiaomin uusin sisältää tekniikkaa, jota ei ole vielä edes standardoitu
“Wi-Fi 7 support is of course interesting, when the IEEE standard is apparently not being completed until around 2024. Next year, however, a number of Wi-Fi 7-compatible smartphones will be introduced to the market. Xiaomi’s 13 Pro will probably be the first of them. Its arrival in Finland and prices will be revealed later.”
The tech IPO market collapsed in 2022, and next year doesn’t look much better
3 views: Predicting 2023’s key startup themes
“Anna Heim: The rise of API-first startups will continue in 2023
I am convinced that API-first will be a major trend in 2023, with this approach being both more widespread than it was previously, as well as more successful than less API-heavy options.
That APIs are on the rise isn’t exactly new — but API-first startups are a subgroup in this world, and one that is enjoying tailwinds.”
“The software company Tiobe measures the popularity of programming languages with its famous index, which measures search engine searches. Changes on the list happen slowly, but in December something happened right at the top of the list. C++ became the third most popular language over Java.”
“It’s not a trivial change, as C++ overtook Java for the first time in history. The top of the list is unchanged. Python and C are clearly in a class of their own.”
Sanna Marin: EU:n pitää katkaista teknologinen riippuvuus Kiinasta
“In an interview with Slush CEO Eerika Savolainen, Marin demanded that Europe break its technological dependence on China.
- We cannot depend on China. Economic relations should not be severed, but we cannot be in a position where an authoritarian country operating with a different logic is able to blackmail us, Marin said.
- I am afraid that we will make the same mistake with technology and digitality as with energy. We thought that a close economic relationship would prevent war, but we were wrong.”
Kyberturvan ammattilaisista on huutava pula
“There is an acute shortage of cyber security professionals. There is an estimated global shortage of three million professionals.”
Innovators 2023
These are some of the innovators and leaders in the electronics technology space.
Ennuste vuodelle 2023: Ongelmat helpottavat
“the demand for smarter and more networked products and systems has also spread to business-to-business sectors, where digitization and the emergence of the fourth industrial revolution have begun to take over the sector. For example, in manufacturing, the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT), characterized by interconnected sensors, communication/data transfer, and advanced data analytics, has transformed the efficiency of production processes in the factory. The IIoT depends on highly advanced integrated circuits that provide intelligence for sensing, measurement and monitoring, power management, control and communication.”
1,139 Comments
Tomi Engdahl says:
“If buying isn’t owning, piracy isn’t stealing”
https://pluralistic.net/2023/12/08/playstationed/#tyler-james-hill
Tomi Engdahl says:
WindCores project deploys small data centers inside wind turbines
German company to use Fujitsu servers
https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/windcores-project-deploys-small-data-centers-inside-wind-turbines/
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://www.baynews9.com/fl/tampa/news/2023/04/07/the-copyright-expires–mickey-mouse-goes-public
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2023/12/manufacturer-deliberately-bricked-trains-repaired-by-competitors-hackers-find/
Tomi Engdahl says:
IN 2024, INTEL HOPES TO LEAPFROG ITS CHIPMAKING COMPETITORS
The chipmaker is betting on new transistors and power-delivery tech
https://spectrum.ieee.org/intel-20a
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://sulava.com/references/tampereen-sahkolaitos-azure/
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://spectrum.ieee.org/homomorphic-encryption
Tomi Engdahl says:
Acer Aspire 1 ARM Laptop Has Nearly Complete Upstream Linux Support : https://www.phoronix.com/news/Acer-Aspire-1-EC-Linux-Complete #Linux Comments: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38719511
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://www.extremetech.com/computing/amds-new-threadripper-chips-have-a-hidden-fuse-that-blows-when-overclocking
Tomi Engdahl says:
Intel to Drop $14 Billion on TSMC 3nm Wafers in 2024 and 2025: Analyst
The company is reportedly spending aggressively to acquire TSMC’s 3nm technology for future products.
https://www.extremetech.com/computing/intel-to-drop-14-billion-on-tsmc-3nm-wafers-in-2024-and-2025-analyst
Tomi Engdahl says:
MSI, ASRock Announce Motherboard Support for 256GB of DDR5
That should be almost enough RAM for a few Chrome tabs.
https://www.extremetech.com/computing/msi-asrock-announce-motherboard-support-for-256gb-of-ddr5
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/cpus/new-cpu-from-chinas-sole-x86-chipmaker-grapples-with-amds-bulldozer-in-geekbench-results-lower-end-model-isnt-the-fastest-but-it-gives-zhaoxin-a-full-roster-of-cpus-for-use-in-the-country
Tomi Engdahl says:
Blacklisted Chinese chipmaker SMIC is working on 3nm process technology despite US sanctions that limit access to advanced tools: Report
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/blacklisted-chinese-chipmaker-smic-is-working-on-3nm-process-technology-despite-us-sanctions-that-limit-access-to-advanced-tools-report
Tomi Engdahl says:
Chinese company claims chipmaking tool breakthrough — announces 28nm-capable litho tool
News
By Anton Shilov published December 20, 2023
But when it is set to be available in mass quantities?
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/chinese-company-claims-chip-making-tool-breakthrough-announces-28nm-capable-litho-tool
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://spectrum.ieee.org/semiconductor-news-2023
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://spectrum.ieee.org/ai-news-2023?share_id=7990044&socialux=facebook&utm_campaign=RebelMouse&utm_content=IEEE+Spectrum&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR1turxoa-MYxFR1r-KFq5hA-9DZMjyUIura-DjklZZYbp2E1uemjfM3fJ4
Tomi Engdahl says:
New AMD Patent Describes Potential Chiplet-Based GPU Design
The big difference is that all the rendering would be handled by chiplets instead of a big compute chip like on its existing GPUs.
https://www.extremetech.com/gaming/new-amd-patent-describes-potential-chiplet-based-gpu-design
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://www.pcworld.com/article/443089/best-free-software-for-pc.html
Tomi Engdahl says:
DLSS Is Slowly Becoming Necessary For Modern Games
https://tech4gamers.com/dlss-necessary-modern-games/
Since the launch of DLSS or Deep Learning Super Sampling, upscaling technologies have slowly become the norm. Today, gamers are outraged if a new game is launched without support for this technology.
But are DLSS and FSR really necessary for a smooth PC gaming experience? The answer may differ from user to user, but these technologies are clearly here to stay.
Why it matters: Following the trend of poor PC ports, the notion that developers are using DLSS and other upscaling technologies to compensate for poor optimization has gained a lot of popularity.
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/cpus/chinas-x86-chipmaker-adopts-sophisticated-boost-tech-zhaoxin-enables-preferred-core-support-to-target-the-fastest-cores
Tomi Engdahl says:
Intel CEO claims 18A node will at least match TSMC’s N2 performance and beat it to market
TSMC thinks N3P will outperform 18A, but Intel will introduce gate-all-around first
https://www.techspot.com/news/101314-intel-ceo-claims-18a-node-least-match-tsmc.html
Shots fired: As semiconductor manufacturers solidify their 3nm processes and intensify the race toward 2nm, TSMC and Intel have recently traded barbs over which company will have the superior node over the next few years. The Taiwan-based manufacturer is confident in its current path, but Intel aims to reassert dominance in the semiconductor industry by jumping to 2nm before anyone else.
Tomi Engdahl says:
IEEE Spectrum’s Top Telecom Stories of 2023 An Internet pioneer’s mistakes, satellite jamming, and underperforming 5G networks
https://spectrum.ieee.org/top-stories-2023-telecom
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://www.tomshardware.com/raspberry-pi/raspberry-pi-5-4gb-versus-8gb
Tomi Engdahl says:
Self-healing code is the future of software development
https://stackoverflow.blog/2023/12/28/self-healing-code-is-the-future-of-software-development/
Developers love automating solutions to their problems, and with the rise of generative AI, this concept is likely to be applied to both the creation, maintenance, and the improvement of code at an entirely new level.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Business trends, people to watch and risks on the horizon in 2024
https://www.ft.com/content/b5ba019a-c569-42af-8d7f-7ab8a609900a?shareType=nongift&fbclid=IwAR2SmtwYaVbIrVjowbqp12fkIAy8bdsP02MYF1Wn35mNDKi8C_gQ6K691x8
AI is the big tech story, luxury is losing some of its sparkle and more private equity firms may head for the public markets
Last year taught us to worry about clever chatbots, this year we will find out if artificial intelligence is ready for much wider use. Financial Times reporters consider this and other trends affecting businesses from defence contractors to energy majors, luxury and private equity.
Technology
Trend to watch
If the biggest tech story of 2023 was the race to build generative AI systems that can emulate humans in producing text and images, 2024 will bring the acid test of whether it is ready for widespread adoption.
Tomi Engdahl says:
TSMC charts a course to trillion-transistor chips, eyes 1nm monolithic chips with 200 billion transistors
News
By Anton Shilov published 7 days ago
TSMC mulls A14, A10 process technologies in the next few years.
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/manufacturing/tsmc-charts-a-course-to-trillion-transistor-chips-eyes-monolithic-chips-with-200-billion-transistors-built-on-1nm-node
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://www.marktechpost.com/2024/01/01/microsoft-researchers-unveil-codeocean-and-wavecoder-pioneering-the-future-of-instruction-tuning-in-code-language-models/
Tomi Engdahl says:
11 INTRIGUING ENGINEERING MILESTONES TO LOOK FOR IN 2024
Killer Drones, Olympic Air Taxis, Amazon Internet, and more
https://spectrum.ieee.org/technology-in-2024
Tomi Engdahl says:
Mikrokokoinen ydinreaktori puskee sähköä 5 megawatin teholla – ei tarvitse lainkaan vettä, käyttöikä 8 vuotta
Rosa Lampela1.1.202423:05ENERGIAYDINVOIMARATKAISUJA ILMASTONMUUTOKSEEN
Westinghouse kehittää nopeasti asennettavaa ja helposti liikuteltavaa mikroreaktoria.
https://www.tivi.fi/uutiset/mikrokokoinen-ydinreaktori-puskee-sahkoa-5-megawatin-teholla-ei-tarvitse-lainkaan-vetta-kayttoika-8-vuotta/b00ce0db-f701-403d-88ff-daf595dd2e3c
Tomi Engdahl says:
A new slasher film is turning Mickey Mouse into a killer hours after the character entered public domain
https://www.businessinsider.com/mickey-mouse-steamboat-willie-slasher-movie-trailer-debut-2024-1
After “Steamboat Willie” entered the public domain, the Mickey Mouse prototype was in a slasher trailer.
The trailer for “Mickey’s Mouse Trap” was made public Monday.
A Winnie the Pooh slasher flick was similarly released after Pooh’s copyright expired two years ago.
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://etn.fi/index.php/13-news/15701-iphone-13-on-viime-vuoden-myydyin
Tomi Engdahl says:
Huippuluokan vastinetta rahalle: Testasimme kahdet alle 200 euron kuulokkeet
Testasimme kahdet erityisen kiinnostavat vastamelukuulokkeet.
https://www.is.fi/digitoday/testit/art-2000009957306.html?fbclid=IwAR2RpB9kfrJ2dwPUog9TY_SsaEDsYGLGDp0ORSQ135NUvm798jOEliAJJZM_aem_AS-yv7To_XTYIHbYR3AZTzT14bqo699nRZmn4AazXSsBGeZjIDeEyvQDLVIPkL5flOFOsNC0JgOdGyWFFINLJGBI&utm_medium=paid&utm_source=fb&utm_id=120204130261770578&utm_content=120204130261880578&utm_term=120204130261840578&utm_campaign=120204130261770578
Tomi Engdahl says:
Alleged Zhaoxin KX-6000G benchmarks surface — Chinese-made chips perform like CPUs from the late 2000s but uses less power
News
By Matthew Connatser published January 26, 2024
Comparable to desktop CPUs from 20 years ago, laptop CPUs from 10.
https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/cpus/alleged-zhaoxin-kx-6000g-benchmarks-surface-chinese-made-chips-perform-like-cpus-from-the-late-2000s-but-uses-less-power
Tomi Engdahl says:
Rabbit R1 on loppuunmyyty laite, joka saattaa syrjäyttää älypuhelimen
Perinteiset laitevalmistajat eivät ole onnistuneet hyödyntämään tekoälyinnostusta samalla tavalla kuin tekoälyapuria kehittävä Rabbit, kirjoittaa HS Vision toimittaja Niclas Storås.
https://www.hs.fi/visio/art-2000010146219.html
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://www.kotiautomaatiokauppa.fi/fi/tuote/invoxia-gps-tracker
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/gpus/new-open-source-gpu-is-free-to-all-supports-modern-windows-software-stack-runs-on-an-fpga-with-custom-pcb
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://www.eenews.net/articles/grassroots-how-microplastics-memes-took-over/
Tomi Engdahl says:
The new standard will deliver an incredible 512GB per second.
Blazing Fast PCI Express 7.0 Gets Updated to Version 0.5, Is Launching in 2025
The new standard will deliver an incredible 512GB per second.
https://www.extremetech.com/computing/blazing-fast-pci-express-70-gets-updated-to-version-05-is-launching-in?utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR1Qp56pc2Yk7L7faCvu3GVs_ljnIX6IQtMwgToPYT8fDHSdtr79iw2Hh9Y
PCI-Sig, the governing body for PCI Express, has announced that version 0.5 of the technology is now available for members to examine. This is a crucial step in the technology’s adoption, as it gives members a roadmap to follow when designing next-generation hardware. PCI-Sig says this is the first official draft of this new interface, which it expects to release in 2025.
The company states its goals for PCI Express 7.0 are as follows:
Delivering 128GT/s raw bit rate and up to 512GB/s bi-directionally via x16 configuration
Utilizing PAM4 (Pulse Amplitude Modulation with four levels) signaling
Focusing on the channel parameters and reach
Continuing to deliver low-latency and high-reliability targets
Improving power efficiency
Maintaining backward compatibility with all previous generations of PCIe technology
If you’re thinking, “Wait, aren’t we just now starting to use PCIe 5.0?” The answer is yes, we are, and we haven’t even begun to talk about PCIe 6.0 for client devices, so this technology will be strictly aimed at enterprise-level applications upon its arrival.