Here is collection of some predictions for year 2023. This is a collection of links to prediction articles followed by a short quote or quotes of what I see the main points in them.
Ennuste vuodelle 2023: Ongelmat helpottavat
“After a couple of exceptional years, the electronics market, challenged by the pandemic and pent-up demand, has signs of a calmer ride on the horizon. Mouser’s Mark Burr-Lonnon predicts slower, but more predictable growth”
“According to World Semiconductor Trade Statistics, the global semiconductor market will grow by 13.9 percent in 2022 and continue to grow by 4.6 percent in 2023. While these statistics show that global demand for semiconductors is slowing, they still show steady growth in all key regions of the world as the electronics industry begins to settle into a more manageable state of equilibrium.”
AMD, Intel, and Nvidia Reportedly Slash Orders with TSMC
“Large customers revise orders to TSMC due to the economy slowdown.”
“According to the report, virtually all TSMC clients will experience a downturn and have to cut orders, so TSMC’s utilization will decline significantly in Q1 2023. For example, the utilization rate of TSMC’s N7-capable lines (7nm, 6nm-class technologies) will decline to around 50% in early 2023. Furthermore, even TSMC’s N5/N4-capable lines will be underutilized”
Tech That Will Change Your Life in 2023
“Big layoffs at Meta, Amazon, Snap and others? A global crypto fraud set in the Bahamas? Elon Musk buying and running Twitter? Look, not even Nostradamus could have seen all that coming.”
“The Metaverse, Now More Than Just Meta. For the last two years, we’ve said this is the year for virtual and augmented reality. But in 2023 we’re confident: headsets that give you a choice of VR (where you’re in a virtual world) and AR (where the virtual is overlaid in your real world) are coming. And they won’t just be from Meta, current holder of 90% of the VR market, according to research firm IDC.”
“Tech companies and their investors are grappling with the industry’s biggest downturn since at least 2008. The result is layoffs and hiring freezes at companies large and small. The PC and chip industries in particular have been clobbered by the biggest drop in sales in more than two decades. And while many survivors of past tech downturns preach that cuts should be deep, fast and early, it appears that the pain for tech workers will continue into 2023.”
“Account moochers, beware: The Netflix password crackdown is coming in early 2023. Netflix is the first streamer with an enforcement policy.”
“China and the U.S. are so interdependent—for manufacturing of smartphones and other electronics, for EV batteries and solar panels, for raw materials and intellectual property—it seems impossible they could go their separate ways with their own parallel supply chains and production bases. Yet it’s happening.”
“Artificial Intelligence Finds Real Use”
“Smart Home Gets Easier-ish”
“European Union legislation is changing Apple’s smartphones.”
Digipelaaminen ja e-pelimediat entistä suositumpia – kännykkäpelaaminen ei kasva enää
“Digital gaming and the consumption of game-related media content is increasingly popular, according to the Gamer Barometer 2022 study conducted at the University of Tampere. An increasing proportion of Finns play digital games at least occasionally, but the number of active mobile players is no longer growing at the previous pace.
Active mobile gaming has for the first time in the history of Gamer Barometers turned into a slight decrease, but still 59 percent of Finns still occasionally play mobile games.”
Xiaomin uusin sisältää tekniikkaa, jota ei ole vielä edes standardoitu
“Wi-Fi 7 support is of course interesting, when the IEEE standard is apparently not being completed until around 2024. Next year, however, a number of Wi-Fi 7-compatible smartphones will be introduced to the market. Xiaomi’s 13 Pro will probably be the first of them. Its arrival in Finland and prices will be revealed later.”
The tech IPO market collapsed in 2022, and next year doesn’t look much better
3 views: Predicting 2023’s key startup themes
“Anna Heim: The rise of API-first startups will continue in 2023
I am convinced that API-first will be a major trend in 2023, with this approach being both more widespread than it was previously, as well as more successful than less API-heavy options.
That APIs are on the rise isn’t exactly new — but API-first startups are a subgroup in this world, and one that is enjoying tailwinds.”
“The software company Tiobe measures the popularity of programming languages with its famous index, which measures search engine searches. Changes on the list happen slowly, but in December something happened right at the top of the list. C++ became the third most popular language over Java.”
“It’s not a trivial change, as C++ overtook Java for the first time in history. The top of the list is unchanged. Python and C are clearly in a class of their own.”
Sanna Marin: EU:n pitää katkaista teknologinen riippuvuus Kiinasta
“In an interview with Slush CEO Eerika Savolainen, Marin demanded that Europe break its technological dependence on China.
- We cannot depend on China. Economic relations should not be severed, but we cannot be in a position where an authoritarian country operating with a different logic is able to blackmail us, Marin said.
- I am afraid that we will make the same mistake with technology and digitality as with energy. We thought that a close economic relationship would prevent war, but we were wrong.”
Kyberturvan ammattilaisista on huutava pula
“There is an acute shortage of cyber security professionals. There is an estimated global shortage of three million professionals.”
Innovators 2023
These are some of the innovators and leaders in the electronics technology space.
Ennuste vuodelle 2023: Ongelmat helpottavat
“the demand for smarter and more networked products and systems has also spread to business-to-business sectors, where digitization and the emergence of the fourth industrial revolution have begun to take over the sector. For example, in manufacturing, the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT), characterized by interconnected sensors, communication/data transfer, and advanced data analytics, has transformed the efficiency of production processes in the factory. The IIoT depends on highly advanced integrated circuits that provide intelligence for sensing, measurement and monitoring, power management, control and communication.”
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Tomi Engdahl says:
Third of world economy to hit recession in 2023, IMF head warns
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jan/02/third-of-world-economy-to-hit-recession-in-2023-imf-head-warns
China’s lagging growth a key threat this year, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said, while the US is ‘most resilient.’
For much of the global economy, 2023 is going to be a tough year as the main engines of global growth – the US, Europe and China – all experience weakening activity, the head of the International Monetary Fund has warned.
The new year is going to be “tougher than the year we leave behind,” IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said on the CBS Sunday morning news program Face the Nation on Sunday.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Sitran megatrendit 2023: Reilu digi tuo apua muutokseen
https://www.uusiteknologia.fi/2023/01/02/sitran-megatrendit-2023-reilu-digi-tuo-apua-muutokseen/
Tomi Engdahl says:
Kaikki tärkeimmät teknologia-tapahtumat 2023-2024
https://www.uusiteknologia.fi/2023/01/03/kaikki-tarkeimmat-teknologia-tapahtumat/
Tomi Engdahl says:
Nikhilesh De / CoinDesk:
A look at what 2023 may bring for crypto regulation in the US and globally, as bankruptcies stretch into the new year, attracting lawmakers and criminal probes — CoinDesk’s policy team predicts the issues and topics that may take center stage over the next 12 months.
FTX, Congress, Stablecoins: What 2023 May Bring for Crypto Regulations
https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/12/30/ftx-congress-stablecoins-what-2023-may-bring-for-crypto-regulations/
CoinDesk’s policy team predicts the issues and topics that may take center stage over the next 12 months.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Debby Wu / Bloomberg:
Chinese media: Foxconn says its Zhengzhou plant is operating with ~200,000 workers, or ~90% capacity, back to around reported normal levels, after disruptions — Foxconn Technology Group has brought the world’s largest iPhone plant to about 90% of anticipated peak capacity …
iPhone City Is Back at 90% Capacity After Covid Turmoil Subsides
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-03/iphone-city-is-back-at-90-capacity-after-covid-turmoil-subsides
Foxconn’s Zhengzhou plant is back at about 200,000 workers
Apple’s iPhone maker recovering from bouts of worker unrest
Tomi Engdahl says:
Amerikkalaiskenraali: Kiina valmistautuu sotaan Taiwania vastaan – “valmistelut ovat jo käynnissä”
https://f7td5.app.goo.gl/4CXb5V
Lähetyskanava @updayFI
Tomi Engdahl says:
Belle Lin / Wall Street Journal:
Southwest Airlines’ recent meltdown exposed an over-reliance on aging crew-assignment software SkySolver, forcing the company to return to manual scheduling
Southwest Meltdown Shows Airlines Need Tighter Software Integration
https://www.wsj.com/articles/southwest-meltdown-shows-airlines-need-tighter-software-integration-11672687980?mod=djemalertNEWS
The airline industry is long overdue for a tech overhaul that takes full advantage of the cloud and data integration, analysts say
The Southwest Airlines Co. meltdown that stranded thousands of passengers during one of the busiest travel weeks of the year exposed a major industry shortcoming: crew-scheduling technology that was largely built for a bygone era and is due for a major overhaul.
Southwest relies on crew-assignment software called SkySolver, an off-the-shelf application that it has customized and updated, but is nearing the end of its life, according to the airline. The program was developed decades ago and is now owned by General Electric Co.
During the winter storm, amid a huge volume of changes to crew schedules to work through, SkySolver couldn’t handle the task of matching crew members and which flights they should work, executives of the Dallas-based carrier said.
Southwest’s software wasn’t designed to solve problems of that scale, Chief Operating Officer Andrew Watterson said Thursday, forcing the airline to revert to manual scheduling.
Many carriers still rely on homegrown solutions, which largely were built on legacy mainframe computers, analysts say.
Analysts and industry insiders say the airline industry is overdue for a massive technology overhaul that would take advantage of highly scalable cloud technologies and fully connect disparate sources of real-time data to better coordinate crews with aircraft. The airline sector has been among the slowest to adopt cloud-based and analytics technologies that could help solve complicated transportation network problems, those analysts say.
Airline operations software historically has lagged behind other technologies because, in part, a small number of providers build dedicated systems that can handle the scale of a major airline like Southwest
The global airline IT market generated $21.2 billion in revenue in 2019, market research firm Frost & Sullivan said, and leaders include Amadeus IT Group SA, International Business Machines Corp. , and Sabre Corp. , formed in 1960 through a joint initiative between American Airlines Group Inc. and IBM.
Partnerships with cloud providers like Alphabet Inc.’s Google Cloud and Amazon.com Inc.’s Amazon Web Services also are expected to help airlines and solutions providers improve their technologies, Frost & Sullivan said. They are part of the technology-partner ecosystem, which could help them become future direct competitors to airline-software companies, according to Frost & Sullivan.
Updating technology systems is particularly challenging for air carriers because of the business and operations risk of taking down a system, which can include grounded planes or stranded passengers, Mr. Crawford said.
Mr. Jordan said Southwest’s meltdown may push forward some of its operations modernization. “I cannot imagine that this doesn’t drive changes to the plan,” he said. “It’s the pace, maybe the level of spending. There may be a change in order of priority.”
Tomi Engdahl says:
Intel is shutting down Pentium and Celeron in 2023
Long live Intel Processor
https://www.gadgetmatch.com/intel-pentium-celeron-shut-down/
Back in the day, Pentium meant class. Early PC building always came with a Pentium processor. Somewhere along the way, Intel shuffled things around and replaced the old brand with the Core lineup. With that, the original names sank straight into the depths of old and weaker PCs. Now, years since making that change, Intel is finally ready to see them ride off into the sunset.
Starting in 2023, Intel will stop using the Pentium and Celeron branding in any of its products. Instead, the company will use the more standard “Intel Processor” to signify the old lineups.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Tom Warren / The Verge:
Intel details its 13th Gen range for laptops, including the flagship Core i9-13980HX with eight performance and 16 efficiency cores and low- and mid-range chips — Intel’s 13th Gen desktop CPUs have already delivered impressive performance to beat their AMD counterparts
Intel’s 13th Gen mobile processors include the first 24-core laptop CPU
https://www.theverge.com/2023/1/3/23536804/intels-13th-gen-mobile-processors-specs-release-date-price-ces-2023
Intel claims it now has the ‘world’s fastest mobile processor’ with the flagship Intel Core i9-13980HX.
Intel’s 13th Gen desktop CPUs have already delivered impressive performance to beat their AMD counterparts, and now Intel is bringing Raptor Lake to its mobile processor lineup. The flagship Core i9-13980HX is built for upcoming gaming laptops, and there are also the regular H-, P-, and U-series chips for a variety of more mainstream laptops.
Intel’s Core i9-13980HX is the star of the show with a 5.6GHz turbo frequency and 24 cores. It’s the first time a laptop CPU has supported a 24-core configuration, and Intel claims it’s the “world’s fastest mobile processor.”
There’s also support for both DDR4 (up to 3,200MHz) and DDR5 (up to 5,600MHz), with up to 128GB of RAM supported. Intel’s latest 13th Gen mobile HX chips also include support for Wi-Fi 6E, Bluetooth 5.2, and Thunderbolt 4. Acer, Dell, HP, Lenovo, MSI, Asus, and Razer have all committed to bringing 13th Gen HX laptops to market, and there will be more than 60 in total.
Intel also has regular 13th Gen H-series processors for 2023, with a base power of 45 watts.
Over on the less extreme performance side of laptops, Intel is launching 13th Gen versions of its 28W P-series for thin and light laptops and the 15W U-series for ultralight laptops, foldables, and beyond. The P-series tops out at up to 14 cores (six performance / eight efficiency) with a max turbo of 5.2GHz and support for both DDR4 and DDR5. The top U-series chip (i7-1365U) has 10 cores in total (two performance / eight efficiency) and a max turbo frequency of 5.2GHz.
These P- and U-series chips are what we’ll see in a variety of laptops announced in the coming days at the Consumer Electronics Show.
Finally, Intel is also announcing new additions to its 13th Gen desktop processor lineup. The new 35- and 65-watt chips are designed for more mainstream desktop PCs with a balance of power efficiency and performance for gaming and productivity.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Filipe Espósito / 9to5Mac:NEW
The Wireless Power Consortium says it is working with Apple on a next-generation “Qi2” wireless charging standard, based on MagSafe, coming later this year
Wireless Power Consortium works with Apple on next generation ‘Qi2’ standard based on MagSafe
https://9to5mac.com/2023/01/03/wpc-apple-qi2-standard-magsafe/
Apple’s Magsafe is a more convenient way to charge the iPhone using accessories based on the Qi standard, but with strong magnets that keep the accessory aligned to the back of the device. Now the company seems willing to let its competitors have the same technology, as the Wireless Power Consortium (WPC) has been working with Apple on the next generation “Qi2” standard based on MagSafe.
MagSafe coming to non-Apple devices with new Qi2 standard
The WPC announced during CES 2023 that the next generation of the Qi standard, named “Qi2,” was built with Apple’s help. The new standard aims to improve the efficiency and interoperability of the technology, which is why it will have a “Magnetic Power Profile” at its core.
As explained by WPC, this Magnetic Power Profile essentially works like Apple’s MagSafe. As a result, Qi2 accessories will be perfectly aligned with the devices, thus improving energy efficiency and fast charging. And of course, since it was developed in partnership with Apple, the Qi2 standard will also work with MagSafe by default.
Currently, MagSafe is a proprietary standard from Apple, and even accessory manufacturers have to pay to use such a standard. While Apple can still technically limit some features to MagSafe certified accessories, the announcement of the Qi2 standard is good news to ensure that this type of accessory is compatible with different phones.
The new Qi2 standard will replace its Qi predecessor once it becomes available. WPC says that one billion Qi devices are expected to be sold globally by 2023. The first Qi2 certified devices and accessories are expected to be introduced by the end of the year.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Jon Fingas / Engadget:
Nvidia brings the GeForce RTX 40 GPU to laptops, offering the RTX 4080 and 4090 for $1,999+ on February 8, followed by the RTX 4050 for $999+ on February 22 — It didn’t take long for NVIDIA’s GeForce RTX 40 graphics to reach portable PCs. The company has introduced RTX 40 GPUs for laptops …
NVIDIA brings GeForce RTX 40 graphics to laptops
There’s even an RTX 4090, if you have the budget for it.
https://www.engadget.com/nvidia-geforce-rtx-40-laptop-gpu-price-release-date-165006688.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cudGVjaG1lbWUuY29tLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAADBE6todSDS2eWxnpWDKqPntNcGsVzSgBOFlkXIBNXwwEwPhGdILtMfTWWLPx7Ap2UETwhD4RJFNtoOxgs8tMmMd1BsLZFvTvRe_wWCdDIu5jy7ikEVJ3Yxwej6GO251-Gg9F748mEguw7pIzGkGmMXwaQ8S-UUwuxtjgPmaxuwM
Tomi Engdahl says:
Romain Dillet / TechCrunch:
Nvidia upgrades its $19.99/month GeForce Now Ultimate plan to support 240 FPS streaming, ultrawide monitors, and more by using RTX 4080-class GPUs — Nvidia announced some new features for its cloud gaming service during its virtual CES press conference. The company is upgrading …
Nvidia upgrades GeForce Now with RTX 4080 performance for premium users
https://techcrunch.com/2023/01/03/nvidia-upgrades-geforce-now-with-rtx-4080-performance-for-premium-users/
Tomi Engdahl says:
Patrick McGee / Financial Times:
Apple’s market cap sinks below $2T, as its stock closes down 3.74% to $125.07, a year after becoming the first and only public company to hit a $3T market cap
https://www.ft.com/content/a54a0562-0e9d-468b-b50c-1a80c1b58a4f
Tomi Engdahl says:
Microsoft vetäisee kaniinin hatusta – tuleeko Bingistä Googlea parempi? https://www.is.fi/digitoday/art-2000009306341.html
The Informationin maksullisen artikkelin mukaan yhtiö valmistelee Bingistä versiota, joka käyttää suurta huomiota saaneen ChatGPT-keskustelubotin taustalla olevaa tekoälyä vastatakseen joihinkin käyttäjien hakuihin perinteisen linkkilistan sijaan.
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://www.uusiteknologia.fi/2023/01/04/neuromorfiset-prosessorit-apuun/
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://etn.fi/index.php/13-news/14429-vuoden-2022-parhaat-taetae-kaikkea-on-tuleva-wi-fi-7
Tomi Engdahl says:
Bloomberg:
Sources: China is pausing massive investments and costly subsidies for its chip industry amid a COVID-19 wave, seeking alternatives to help homegrown chipmakers — China is pausing massive investments aimed at building a chip industry to compete with the US, as a nationwide Covid resurgence strains …
Battered by Covid, China Hits Pause on Giant Chip Spending Aimed at Rivaling US
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-04/battered-by-covid-china-hits-pause-on-giant-chip-spending
Beijing plans alternative measures to support local firms
US is bolstering campaign to crimp China’s access to key tech
Tomi Engdahl says:
Cheng Ting-Fang / Nikkei Asia:
Sources: Dell plans to stop using chips made in China by 2024 and tells suppliers to significantly reduce the number of China-made components in its products
Dell looks to phase out ‘made in China’ chips by 2024
‘This trend looks irreversible,’ supplier exec says of tech industry’s production shift
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Supply-Chain/Dell-looks-to-phase-out-made-in-China-chips-by-2024
Dell has also asked suppliers of other components as well as product assemblers to help prepare capacity in countries like Vietnam. (Photo by Ken Kobayashi)
CHENG TING-FANG, Nikkei Asia chief tech correspondentJanuary 5, 2023 11:48 JSTUpdated on January 5, 2023 15:31 JST
TAIPEI — U.S. computer maker Dell aims to stop using chips made in China by 2024 and has told suppliers to significantly reduce the amount of other “made in China” components in its products as part of efforts to diversify its supply chain amid concerns over Washington-Beijing tensions.
The world’s third-largest computer maker by shipments told suppliers late last year that it aims to “meaningfully lower” the amount of China-made chips it uses, including those produced at facilities owned by non-Chinese chipmakers, three people with direct knowledge of the matter told Nikkei Asia.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Mitchell Clark / The Verge:
Sony announces ~30M PlayStation 5 consoles sold and says the shortage is over, so everyone “should have a much easier time” finding a PS5 at retailers globally
Sony says the PlayStation 5 shortage is over
https://www.theverge.com/2023/1/4/23539918/sony-playstation-5-shortage-over
Tomi Engdahl says:
VC deal activity fell in 2022, signaling tough times ahead
Capital is becoming harder to come by
https://techcrunch.com/2023/01/06/vc-deal-activity-fell-in-2022-signaling-tough-times-ahead/?tpcc=ecfb2020
Tomi Engdahl says:
To Look Forward, Sometimes You Have to Look Back Technologies decades in the making finally get their star turn in 2023
https://spectrum.ieee.org/innovation-cycle
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://www.gartner.com/en/articles/what-s-new-in-the-2022-gartner-hype-cycle-for-emerging-technologies
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://www.edn.com/will-2023-be-the-year-of-semiconductor-acquisitions/
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://techcrunch.com/2023/01/02/what-to-expect-from-the-creator-economy-in-2023/
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://techcrunch.com/2023/01/02/fintech-predictions-and-opportunities-for-2023/
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://analyticsindiamag.com/computer-vision-trends-that-will-dominate-the-industry-in-2023/
Tomi Engdahl says:
Multicloud isn’t working: Bring on the supercloud!
https://venturebeat.com/data-infrastructure/multicloud-isnt-working-bring-on-the-supercloud/
Say the word “multicloud” to CIOs or other tech leaders, and you’re almost guaranteed to get an eyeroll. The prospect of simultaneously maintaining on-premises data centers, migrating to one public cloud, and then redundantly staffing for two or more additional clouds on top of that is a recipe for frustration and disappointment.
There are good reasons to want multicloud — avoiding vendor lock-in, access to best-of-breed cloud services, and the flexibility to integrate with business partners (among others). But despite these potential benefits, most businesses will not achieve a viable multicloud strategy anytime soon, for the simple reason that it’s just too costly and complex for most businesses.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Amerikkalaiskenraali: Kiina valmistautuu sotaan Taiwania vastaan – “Valmistelut ovat jo käynnissä”
https://www.mtvuutiset.fi/artikkeli/amerikkalaiskenraali-kiina-valmistautuu-sotaan-taiwania-vastaan-valmistelut-ovat-jo-kaynnissa/8603308
Tomi Engdahl says:
All I want for 2023 are new smart home interfaces / The Mui Board — a piece of wood that can control your smart home — is a sign of how Matter could help bring about the ambient smart home.
https://www.theverge.com/2023/1/2/23533816/mui-board-second-gen-smatter-smart-home-control-interface
Tomi Engdahl says:
Arm is playing chicken with Qualcomm. Both have a lot to lose.
Send lawyers, IP and money – get me out of this
https://www.theregister.com/2023/01/04/arm_qualcomm_lawsuit/
When Arm made the bold move to sue Qualcomm last year it set itself on a collision course between the British chip designer and one of its largest partners that risks dealing significant damage to both companies — unless they decide to reach a settlement before things get too ugly.
In its lawsuit filed against Qualcomm last August, Arm sought to block custom processor core technology acquired by the Snapdragon giant. The reason Arm believes this should happen? Qualcomm allegedly breached Arm’s licensing agreements by continuing development of custom cores after the two parties failed to negotiate a new deal for the tech’s use.
Qualcomm, by contrast, believes its existing agreements with Arm cover the custom cores it gained from the 2021 acquisition of chip startup Nuvia.
Tomi Engdahl says:
On the business podcast All-In, Chamath Palihapitiya said Google Search will be the biggest business loser of 2023.
Amid the rise of ChatGPT and other AI chatbots, venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya thinks Google Search will be the biggest loser of 2023
https://www.businessinsider.com/chamath-palihapitiya-said-google-search-will-be-biggest-loser-2023-2023-1?utm_campaign=sf-bi-ti&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&r=US&IR=T
Chamath Palihapitiya is a venture capitalist who has invested in companies like Slack and Yammer.
On the business podcast All-In, Palihapitiya said Google Search will be the biggest business loser of 2023.
Amid the rise of chatbots like ChatGPT, Palihapitiya said more companies will engineer competitive search engines.
For years, Google has wielded an unparalleled dominance over our ability to search the interwebs.
But 2023 might be the year Google’s kingdom ends its reign, according to venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya.
“I think that the biggest potential business loser this year is Google search as measured by pure profitability and engagement,” Palihapitiya said on the All-In podcast on Friday.
One of the most obvious threats to Google is ChatGPT, a chatbot that relies on a new form of artificial intelligence called generative AI. Google issued a “code red” on the potentially competitive technology in late December, and CEO Sundar Pichai has already redirected certain teams to sharpen their focus on AI products, Insider reported.
However, Palihapitiya doesn’t think that ChatGPT is the only reason Google’s search business might be on shaky grounds this year.
“I think it’s easier for me to see where the usage comes from as opposed to picking OpenAI or ChatGPT in terms of where the usage goes to,” he said.
The reason for that, he said, boils down to how machine learning and artificial intelligence work. Palihapitiya said these concepts break down into “two big buckets.”
The first is “learning,” which he defined as how a technology learns to make predictions. While the second is “inference,” which he said is retrieving search results from a typed query.
“The thing with learning, and what ChatGPT is showing, is that they have learned by crawling the entirety of the web,”
Google’s management has reportedly issued a ‘code red’ amid the rising popularity of the ChatGPT AI
https://www.businessinsider.com/google-management-issues-code-red-over-chatgpt-report-2022-12?r=US&IR=T
Tomi Engdahl says:
2023 Will See Renewed Focus on Quantum Computing https://www.darkreading.com/tech-trends/2023-will-see-more-focus-on-quantum-computing
2022 was a big year for quantum computing. Over the summer, the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) unveiled four quantum computing algorithms that eventually will be turned into a final quantum computing standard, and governments around the world boosted investments in quantum computing. 2023 may be the year when quantum finally steps into the limelight, with organizations preparing to begin the process of implementing quantum computing technologies into existing systems. It will also be the year to start paying attention to quantum computing-based attacks
Tomi Engdahl says:
Predictions 2023: Big Tech’s Coming Security Shopping Spree
https://www.securityweek.com/predictions-2023-big-techs-coming-security-shopping-spree
Tomi Engdahl says:
Virtual Insanity: Protecting the Immersive Online World
https://www.securityweek.com/virtual-insanity-protecting-immersive-online-world
As a result of the intersection of humans and technology, many social engineering attacks aimed at exploiting unsophisticated users will occur
The concept of a virtual world in which people live, work, and interact with others without leaving their living room in the physical world gained more momentum during the pandemic. In fact, Gartner predicts that by 2026, a quarter of the population will spend a minimum of an hour each day in some type of immersive virtual environment for work, shopping, education, social media and/or entertainment.
Cities are among the first to enter this new iteration of the internet powered by virtual reality (VR), augmented reality (AR) and mixed reality (MR) technology. These virtual cities—Dubai being the first—promise to replicate real-life experiences and places. Individuals create avatars that can then work, shop, play and more in a virtual space. While these new virtual spaces will provide untold opportunities, they also set the stage for an unparalleled rise in cybercrime.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Understanding the 2023 Chip Market Collapse
Jan. 4, 2023
Overcapacities and lessening demand will likely lead to an approximate 20% drop in the semiconductor industry this year.
https://www.electronicdesign.com/technologies/embedded-revolution/article/21257375/objective-analysis-understanding-the-2023-chip-market-collapse?utm_source=EG+ED+Analog+%26+Power+Source&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CPS221229028&o_eid=7211D2691390C9R&rdx.identpull=omeda|7211D2691390C9R&oly_enc_id=7211D2691390C9R
Last year, Objective Analysis predicted 6% growth based on the assumption that the surge in late 2021 would end sometime this year. Well, that surge has indeed ended, and the industry is now poised, through a significant downturn, to achieve that number. With the market falling back to its normal growth patterns after being overheated, it poses the likelihood of a drop of nearly 20% for 2023. Let’s see why.
What is “Normal”?
In 1996, the semiconductor market underwent a dramatic change. While annual revenues had been growing, on average, at a 22% rate, it suddenly dropped to 3.9%, a level that the market has followed for the past 25 years (Fig. 1).
There are some notable departures from the trend over the past couple of decades:
The 2001 Internet Bubble Burst, which left revenues below trend for over two years.
Another dramatic drop below trend during the Global Financial Collapse of 2008-9.
A significant rise above trend in 2018, when the U.S./China Trade War drove panic inventory builds in China.
Another similar rise in 2020-22 driven by COVID, as the internet was built out to support telecommuting, remote education, home entertainment, etc., while new PCs were purchased for the same reason.
With the U.S. applying restrictions on China’s equipment purchases, the country’s entry into the chip market should be further delayed. Such restrictions don’t only negatively impact the target country, though. Countries outside of mainland China, including the U.S., Europe, and even Taiwan and Korea, suffer repercussions of these moves. Although the effects of this are very real, we don’t make any assumption that our forecast’s accuracy is good enough to try and incorporate such elements.
Kioxia and Micron announced wafer production cutbacks. We will see if these are sufficient to bring the market back into balance. Since those wafers that just entered the manufacturing line will remain in process for about one quarter, it will take some time for the cutbacks to begin to have an effect.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Alex Kantrowitz / Big Technology:
The economic downturn is hurting the creator economy, one of the most-hyped sectors of the past decade, in particular since its middle class hasn’t yet emerged — We’re seeing the truth about one of the most-hyped sectors of the past decade. — After years of hype, the Creator Economy is slamming into reality.
The Creator Economy Was Way Overblown
We’re seeing the truth about one of the most-hyped sectors of the past decade.
https://www.bigtechnology.com/p/the-creator-economy-was-way-overblown
Tomi Engdahl says:
Josh Nicholas / The Guardian:
Mastodon’s “active users” fell 30%+ from a 2.5M+ peak in early December 2022 to ~1.8M in the first week of January, and are still declining but at a slower pace — More than 130,000 people were joining the new independent social media network a day in November. So why hasn’t it taken off?
Elon Musk drove more than a million people to Mastodon – but many aren’t sticking around
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2023/jan/08/elon-musk-drove-more-than-a-million-people-to-mastodon-but-many-arent-sticking-around
More than 130,000 people were joining the new independent social media network a day in November. So why hasn’t it taken off?
Tomi Engdahl says:
Debby Wu / Bloomberg:
Taiwanese lawmakers pass rules letting domestic chip companies convert 25% of their annual R&D expenses into tax credits; TSMC’s stock rises 4%+
Taiwan Passes Its Chips Act, Offers Tax Credits to Chipmakers
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-09/taiwan-passes-its-chips-act-offers-tax-credits-to-chipmakers
A quarter of chip firms’ R&D expenses can be deducted from tax
Major governments are racing to build chip plants at home
Tomi Engdahl says:
Keysight’s technology predictions for 2023—company-wide insights
https://www.edn.com/keysights-technology-predictions-for-2023-company-wide-insights/
1. Product recall rates will rise between 2023 and 2026
The pent-up demand for new products capable of connecting to 5G capacity was already putting pressure on developers before the worldwide pandemic shutdowns. The follow-on supply chain issues, which made many parts scarce, caused rapid redesigns of products using substitute parts, with many not designed to the same specifications. As a result, I expect there will be an increase in product failures as the wave of these products hits the market.
2. DIY digital twins will drive up product recalls
I anticipate that product developers will be tempted to build – known as do-it-yourself, or DIY – vs. buy their digital twins. Those taking DIY shortcuts will be leading the spike in product recalls.
1. Deepening data divide will determine enterprise winners or losers
While monetizing data insights has been an elusive goal for many organizations, the maturation of AI technologies is finally making it possible for companies to organize and actualize their information.
2. Talent 2.0: digital dexterity becomes mandatory
Digital dexterity outside the IT function will rise to levels where entire organizations will have basic software development skills. These progressive organizations will differentiate through data science.
3. Automation impacts talent acquisition and retention
In 2023, automation will remain unaffected despite economic uncertainty. And in the coming years, the state of automation and systems will increasingly impact retention. Employees will seek out organizations with intelligent automated systems that allow them to focus on more rewarding and creative tasks.
4. Software development goes to the robots
We’ve become accustomed to text predictions in our digital communication, but people may be surprised to learn that these capabilities also exist in software development. Some environments have bots suggesting how to finish code, which will become increasingly common in the years ahead. By 2028, more than half of the world’s software code will be written by bots as opposed to people.
5. Blending of physical and virtual worlds will usher in new era of efficiency
The year 2023 will see significant advancement in the form of digital twins being superimposed on physical systems. This will bring numerous benefits to various sectors, ranging from healthcare to manufacturing to retail.
1. Quantum poised to accelerate complex design processes
Rather than spending their entire career on one design cycle, employees will be able to complete the process in a matter of years.
2. Taking a quantum leap in the climate change battle
Once quantum demonstrates its advantage, it will increasingly be channeled to help fight climate change. For example, improving decision-making through complex modeling and predictions and helping ensure compliance with emission standards.
3. Reducing the impact of hurricanes and weather events
Before the end of the next decade, quantum will enable meteorologists to better predict the trajectory of hurricanes, winter storms, and other weather events. This will allow communities to better plan and remove any element of guesstimates in determining whether to mandate evacuations or shelter in place.
4. Quantum navigation will illuminate remote areas
Quantum technology can facilitate navigation in remote areas with minimal satellite coverage, but cost is currently a barrier to adoption.
5. Europe: hot on US’ heels with quantum adoption
The US is currently leading the quantum computing industry, but by the end of the decade, Europe will reach parity. Increasing privacy regulations is one major driver behind Europe’s growth, as having quantum computing capabilities in the region will make it significantly easier to comply with these mandates.
6. Building the foundation for quantum
After decades-long hype around quantum computing and quantum systems, the industry will start to realize its potential for creating new opportunities in fields spanning cybersecurity, materials creation, financial analysis, and military receivers.
1. Electric vehicles driving more integrated and intelligent energy consumption
Within the next decade, electric vehicles (EVs) will become an energy repository for users, whether on the road or in their homes. Intelligent applications will look at calendars to determine the energy required to power the next day’s travel and then individuals will utilize the remaining battery for their home energy needs.
2. Construction industry goes green for EVs
To date, EVs have been associated with climate-conscious consumers, but by 2025, expect adoption to come from some surprising sectors. For example, the construction industry stands to reap numerous benefits from utilizing the EVs’ excess energy to power machinery that previously required cumbersome generators or numerous extension cords to function.
3. OK, boomer: You need to get on board the EV train
Younger generations don’t view cars as status symbols and embrace the “Uberization” of vehicles—i.e., the idea that a car just needs to get you from point A to point B with minimal environmental impact. However, the same can’t be said for Boomers and Generation X.
4. The automotive revolution
The automotive revolution is reshaping our world, with innovations in both EVs and autonomous vehicles (AVs) continuing at a feverish pace. But challenges remain in large-scale charging and charging infrastructure.
1. Autonomous test design
Traditional test automation still requires that the tests themselves are manually written. Model based approaches allow tests to be generated from the central model; autonomous test design takes the next step and automatically generates these models.
2. Sustainability of testing
Traditional test automation is based on the need to run a large number of fixed tests at defined periods (e.g., overnight, weekends, prior to a release, etc.). The execution of each test requires significant computing power and thus has both an energy cost and an environmental impact. With the increase in energy prices and the greater awareness of sustainability, this legacy approach of “non-intelligent” test automation will be replaced by intelligent test optimization—in which the goal is to only run the tests that are known to identify a problem.
3. Metaverse as a platform
Vendors need to maintain multiple different channels to engage with customers; the web and mobile are the most common, but there are also dedicated mobile apps, kiosks, IoT devices, ATMs, Set To Boxes, etc. In 2023, expect more conversation around the Metaverse as a significant channel for future customer interaction.
4. AI to provide assurance of quality and behavior
With the increasing complexity of a digital-first world, digital products will come under greater scrutiny. This is already high for safety critical systems but expect it to increase in all areas in 2023. The contents of the product, including all constituent parts and third-party components, must be itemized and certified, ensuring that all constituents are authentic and original.
5. The rise of the citizen developers
With an increasingly digital savvy population, traditional non-technical audiences are becoming technically proficient and confident in using more complex systems. Combined with advances in user experience design and usability improvements, these new non-technical users can develop for their specific needs through low-code or no-code technology—in many cases removing the need for a separate requirements document for a technical team to implement.
1. Cloud cover to soften recession concerns
The concern over a recession in 2023 will drive more enterprises to shift data intensive tasks to the cloud to reduce infrastructure and operational costs while also improving cybersecurity. Moving applications to the cloud will also help organizations deliver greater data-driven customer experiences.
2. Digital twin deployments to increase despite economic woes
With R&D efficiency a priority in 2023, expect to see increased use of digital twins for system design and testing. This approach enables faster design cycles, more efficient co-design of hardware and software, a more robust product, and reduced costs while also delivering benefits in improved manufacturability and serviceability.
3. Encryption advances bolstering cloud & network security
Organizations have historically been hesitant to adopt network and cloud-based software and services due to security concerns. Expect these to be addressed in 2023 through robust encryption capabilities and greater access control of measurement parameters and data, providing users with unparalleled assurance of data integrity from probe to cloud and back.
4. Automation: a lifebelt in a downturn
In today’s uncertain climate, technology which reduces the need for human labor such as automation and robotics are in particularly high demand. Expect heightened investment in tools that automate repetitive simulation and measurement tasks, ensure the validity of results by catching and fixing errors, and improve measurement quality by eliminating human induced variability.
5. Cost of exploding data volumes driven down by AI and ML
Automation and AI/ML techniques will emerge to reduce costs associated with managing today’s increasing volumes of measurement data. These technologies will reduce the need for manual analysis of data sets,
6. Measurements critical to meeting green energy goals
Meeting government mandates and societal imperatives for carbon reduction will continue to be a focus in 2023. AI/ML enabled optimizations based on measurement and monitoring of industrial and commercial infrastructure, such as data networks will drive the next level of energy use management.
1. The new Olympic spot: the Metaverse
The 2028 Summer Games will welcome 6G to the global stage. As a worldwide Olympic partner, expect Samsung to unveil a 6G deployment which will be a pivotal part of how viewers consume events. For example, you can expect one of the two Opening Ceremonies to happen in the metaverse.
2. Arrival of 6G opens the door to new mobile network operators in the US
The tier one mobile network operators in the US have enjoyed a relatively stable market, but that is poised to change with the arrival of 6G.
3. Gen Z & younger is the 6G sweet spot
Ever used a Blackberry? Then 6G is not for you. The network is being built and set up for those currently 25 and under. These individuals are digital natives, and they have no reservations about participating in virtual groups or sharing everything online. In 2023 and beyond, expect to see more discussion about how these younger generations will be monetized in 6G.
4. 6G will foster a more geographically inclusive world—but it comes at a cost
Rural areas and remote industries like rail, offshore drilling, or broad mining will benefit from the enhanced connectivity of 6G. In addition, the network’s ultra-low latency will further accelerate high-speed finance.
5. Spectrum challenges a gatekeeper to further network innovation
6G is coming and, while much work remains to actualize its potential, we have enough bandwidth to make it happen. But the industry is running short on spectrum
Tomi Engdahl says:
Hälyttävä arvio: Maailmanlaajuinen taantuma uhkaa
Maailmanpankki ennustaa maailmantalouden kasvavan vain 1,7 prosenttia vuonna 2023.
https://www.iltalehti.fi/talous/a/8ec38cb9-629a-40dd-9131-628ac09f9580
Arvio on synkentynyt kesästä. Vielä kesäkuussa Maailmanpankki ennusti 3 prosentin vuosikasvua vuodelle 2023.
Laskusuhdanteen takana on monia asioita, keskeisimpänä Venäjän hyökkäyssota Ukrainassa seurausvaikutuksineen. Myös koronapandemia näkyy yhä talousluvuissa. Korkea inflaatiokin hidastaa talouskasvua maailmanlaajuisesti.
Euroalueelle nollakasvua
Ennustettu 1,7 prosentin vuosikasvu olisi pienin sitten vuoden 1991 pois lukien globaalit taantumavuodet 2009 ja 2020.
Heikko talouskehitys uhkaa Yhdysvaltoja, euroaluetta ja Kiinaa eli maailman tärkeimpiä talousalueita, joista heikko talouskehitys heijastuu muualle maailmaan.
Euroalueelle Maailmanpankki ennustaa nollakasvua. Rikkaimmissa maissa talouskasvun ennustetaan olevan vain 0,5 prosenttia.
Myös Suomeen on useissa eri ennusteissa povattu taantumaa vuodelle 2023.
Inflaatio madaltuu
Mikäli globaali taantuma iskee, se on ensimmäinen kerta sitten 1930-luvun kun samalla vuosikymmenellä nähdään kaksi maailmanlaajuista taantumaa.
Sota Ukrainassa on supistanut viljantuotantoa ja nostanut energianhintoja. Venäjälle asetetut pakotteet ja lännen irtikytkeytyminen Venäjän fossiilisista polttoaineista on kiihdyttänyt inflaatiota ja madaltanut talouskasvua.
Maailmanpankki ennustaa maailmanlaajuisen inflaation kuitenkin putoavan viime vuoden 7,6 prosentista 5,2 prosenttiin.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Chris Metinko / Crunchbase News:
Analysis: cybersecurity startups raised $15.3B in 2022, down by a third from a record $22.8B raised in 2021 but still 68% higher than the $9.1B raised in 2020
Venture To Cybersecurity Drops By A Third
https://news.crunchbase.com/cybersecurity/venture-to-cybersecurity-drops-by-a-third/
Venture capital in cybersecurity hit a record high in 2021 — like it did in many industries — but last year could not come close to matching those peak times.
Funding to cybersecurity startups dropped by a third in 2022, according to Crunchbase data. While 2021 saw a record $22.8 billion roll into startups in the sector, that number fell to $15.3 billion last year.
However, the 2022 venture total still represents a 68% increase from 2020 — which until last year was the high-water mark for venture funding in the industry.
The downside, however, is that investment dollars trended downward as the past year went on — something that may not bode well for startups in 2023.
The fourth quarter saw only $2.4 billion go to cyber startups, the lowest amount of venture investment in the sector since the third quarter of 2020 — which saw $1.6 billion invested — according to Crunchbase data.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Don Clark / New York Times:
A look at Intel’s struggles with launching Sapphire Rapids, originally slated for mid-2022, which Intel says has led to changes in product design and testing — The company grappled with missteps for years while developing a mic
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/10/technology/intel-sapphire-rapids-microprocessor.html
Tomi Engdahl says:
Paul Alcorn / Tom’s Hardware:
Intel debuts Sapphire Rapids fourth-gen Xeon CPUs, 52 models from $415 to $17,000 with up to 60 cores and PCIe 5.0 and DDR5 support, to rival AMD’s EPYC Genoa
Intel Launches Sapphire Rapids Fourth-Gen Xeon CPUs and Ponte Vecchio Max GPU Series
By Paul Alcorn
published about 16 hours ago
Intel pushes up to 60 cores.
https://www.tomshardware.com/news/intel-launches-sapphire-rapids-fourth-gen-xeon-cpus-and-ponte-vecchio-max-gpu-series
After years of delays, Intel formally launched its fourth-gen Xeon Scalable Sapphire Rapids CPUs, in both regular and HBM-infused Max flavors, and its “Ponte Vecchio” Data Center GPU Max Series today. Intel’s expansive portfolio of 52 new CPUs will face off with AMD’s EPYC Genoa lineup that debuted last year. The company also slipped in a low-key announcement of its last line of Optane Persistent Memory DIMMs.
While AMD’s chips maintain the core count lead with a maximum of 96 cores on a single chip, Intel’s Sapphire Rapids chips bring the company up to a maximum of 60 cores, a 50% improvement over its previous peak of 40 cores with the third-gen Ice Lake Xeons. Intel claims this will lead to a 53% improvement in general compute over its prior-gen chips, but largely avoided making direct comparisons to AMD’s chips during its presentations. However, Intel has provided samples to the press for unrestricted third-party reviews, so it isn’t shying away from the competition.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Ivan Mehta / TechCrunch:
Developers flood Apple’s App Store and Google Play with apps listing “ChatGPT” in titles and descriptions; OpenAI doesn’t offer a public ChatGPT API or an app — ChatGPT is the hottest topic of discussion in the tech industry. OpenAI’s chatbot that answers questions …
App Store and Play Store are flooded with dubious ChatGPT apps
https://techcrunch.com/2023/01/10/app-store-and-play-store-are-flooded-with-dubious-chatgpt-apps/
ChatGPT is the hottest topic of discussion in the tech industry. OpenAI’s chatbot that answers questions in natural language has attracted interest from users and developers. Some developers are trying to take advantage of the trend by making dubious apps — both on the App Store and the Play Store — that aim to make money in the name of pro versions or extra credits to get more answers from AI.
It’s important to remember that ChatGPT is free to use for anyone on the web and OpenAI hasn’t released any official mobile app. While there are plenty of apps that take advantage of GPT-3, there is no official ChatGPT API.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Sometimes I wish there was a global checkbox in the world that would immediately disable predictive text, autocorrect, spelling check, all os notifications, automatic capitals, cookie confirmations and other similar user hostile features.
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://etn.fi/index.php/13-news/14451-kontron-toi-poeytaekoneen-tehon-sulautetulle-kortille
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://etn.fi/index.php/13-news/14449-uutistoimistot-apple-siirtyy-omiin-naeyttoeihin-iphone-puhelimissa
Tomi Engdahl says:
App Store developers have earned $320 billion to date, says Apple
https://techcrunch.com/2023/01/10/app-store-developers-have-earned-320-billion-to-date-says-apple/?tpcc=tcplusfacebook&guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9sbS5mYWNlYm9vay5jb20v&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAANduvf4m_c5wcrHwVnHu8JEIXVs4PWId-FGykbnFEbcsqQInaE8Q8OFZMq5vf41AV7qGJyQ2DNZ4gKzXbo7pYMqxxzBOfRW3DHp-IJ67z_4o5RPj6OlDOUgZvV_xCoXLgRETSK0w5XU3UI_NCKA6ue1yP6ktXcgZ0RY4VdaRuMxB
Apple today shared an update on its subscription businesses and global App Store, noting that the tech company has now paid out a record $320 billion to app developers since 2008 — a number that reflects the revenue apps have generated, minus Apple’s commission. In addition, the tech giant said it now has more than 900 million paid subscriptions across Apple services, with subscriptions on the App Store driving a “significant” part of that figure.
The company’s App Store in 2022 faced one of its tougher years since its founding, with lawsuits and antitrust actions aimed at limiting its market power.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Mark Gurman / Bloomberg:
Sources: Apple is working on Macs with a touchscreen; the first model may be a MacBook Pro with an OLED display supporting gestures, set to be released in 2025 — Apple Inc. is working on adding touch screens to its Mac computers, a move that would defy long-held company orthodoxy and embrace …
Apple Is Working on Adding Touch Screens to Macs in Major Turnabout
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-11/apple-working-on-adding-touch-screens-to-macs-in-major-turnabout
Apple Inc. is working on adding touch screens to its Mac computers, a move that would defy long-held company orthodoxy and embrace an approach that co-founder Steve Jobs once called “ergonomically terrible.”
Steve Jobs famously decried idea of touch displays for laptops
MacBook Pro with OLED poised to be the first touch-screen Mac
Tomi Engdahl says:
Ron Miller / TechCrunch:
Canalys, IDC, and Gartner report global PC shipments fell for the fourth consecutive quarter in Q4 2022, by 28%-29% YoY to 65.3M-67.2M units; Dell fell ~37% YoY — When you look at fourth quarter worldwide PC sales data from Canalys, IDC and Gartner, it’s fair to say that the news was not great …
PC sales slip for fourth straight quarter in Q4 as demand remains muted
https://techcrunch.com/2023/01/11/pc-sales-slip-for-fourth-straight-quarter-in-q4-as-demand-remains-muted/
When you look at fourth-quarter worldwide PC sales data from Canalys, IDC and Gartner, it’s fair to say that the news was not great, with all three firms seeing precipitous declines from 2021 highs.
In fact, the numbers plunged for the fourth consecutive quarter, with sales falling 28% according to IDC, 28.5% according to Gartner, and 29% according to Canalys. These numbers include laptops and desktop computers running Windows, macOS, or Chrome operating systems.
The yearly totals told a similar story with all three firms coming in at around –16% decline year-over-year. But IDC analyst Ryan Reith pointed out that it may not be as gloomy as those numbers suggest because it was coming off a stellar 2021.