Here is collection of some predictions for year 2023. This is a collection of links to prediction articles followed by a short quote or quotes of what I see the main points in them.
Ennuste vuodelle 2023: Ongelmat helpottavat
“After a couple of exceptional years, the electronics market, challenged by the pandemic and pent-up demand, has signs of a calmer ride on the horizon. Mouser’s Mark Burr-Lonnon predicts slower, but more predictable growth”
“According to World Semiconductor Trade Statistics, the global semiconductor market will grow by 13.9 percent in 2022 and continue to grow by 4.6 percent in 2023. While these statistics show that global demand for semiconductors is slowing, they still show steady growth in all key regions of the world as the electronics industry begins to settle into a more manageable state of equilibrium.”
AMD, Intel, and Nvidia Reportedly Slash Orders with TSMC
“Large customers revise orders to TSMC due to the economy slowdown.”
“According to the report, virtually all TSMC clients will experience a downturn and have to cut orders, so TSMC’s utilization will decline significantly in Q1 2023. For example, the utilization rate of TSMC’s N7-capable lines (7nm, 6nm-class technologies) will decline to around 50% in early 2023. Furthermore, even TSMC’s N5/N4-capable lines will be underutilized”
Tech That Will Change Your Life in 2023
“Big layoffs at Meta, Amazon, Snap and others? A global crypto fraud set in the Bahamas? Elon Musk buying and running Twitter? Look, not even Nostradamus could have seen all that coming.”
“The Metaverse, Now More Than Just Meta. For the last two years, we’ve said this is the year for virtual and augmented reality. But in 2023 we’re confident: headsets that give you a choice of VR (where you’re in a virtual world) and AR (where the virtual is overlaid in your real world) are coming. And they won’t just be from Meta, current holder of 90% of the VR market, according to research firm IDC.”
“Tech companies and their investors are grappling with the industry’s biggest downturn since at least 2008. The result is layoffs and hiring freezes at companies large and small. The PC and chip industries in particular have been clobbered by the biggest drop in sales in more than two decades. And while many survivors of past tech downturns preach that cuts should be deep, fast and early, it appears that the pain for tech workers will continue into 2023.”
“Account moochers, beware: The Netflix password crackdown is coming in early 2023. Netflix is the first streamer with an enforcement policy.”
“China and the U.S. are so interdependent—for manufacturing of smartphones and other electronics, for EV batteries and solar panels, for raw materials and intellectual property—it seems impossible they could go their separate ways with their own parallel supply chains and production bases. Yet it’s happening.”
“Artificial Intelligence Finds Real Use”
“Smart Home Gets Easier-ish”
“European Union legislation is changing Apple’s smartphones.”
Digipelaaminen ja e-pelimediat entistä suositumpia – kännykkäpelaaminen ei kasva enää
“Digital gaming and the consumption of game-related media content is increasingly popular, according to the Gamer Barometer 2022 study conducted at the University of Tampere. An increasing proportion of Finns play digital games at least occasionally, but the number of active mobile players is no longer growing at the previous pace.
Active mobile gaming has for the first time in the history of Gamer Barometers turned into a slight decrease, but still 59 percent of Finns still occasionally play mobile games.”
Xiaomin uusin sisältää tekniikkaa, jota ei ole vielä edes standardoitu
“Wi-Fi 7 support is of course interesting, when the IEEE standard is apparently not being completed until around 2024. Next year, however, a number of Wi-Fi 7-compatible smartphones will be introduced to the market. Xiaomi’s 13 Pro will probably be the first of them. Its arrival in Finland and prices will be revealed later.”
The tech IPO market collapsed in 2022, and next year doesn’t look much better
3 views: Predicting 2023’s key startup themes
“Anna Heim: The rise of API-first startups will continue in 2023
I am convinced that API-first will be a major trend in 2023, with this approach being both more widespread than it was previously, as well as more successful than less API-heavy options.
That APIs are on the rise isn’t exactly new — but API-first startups are a subgroup in this world, and one that is enjoying tailwinds.”
“The software company Tiobe measures the popularity of programming languages with its famous index, which measures search engine searches. Changes on the list happen slowly, but in December something happened right at the top of the list. C++ became the third most popular language over Java.”
“It’s not a trivial change, as C++ overtook Java for the first time in history. The top of the list is unchanged. Python and C are clearly in a class of their own.”
Sanna Marin: EU:n pitää katkaista teknologinen riippuvuus Kiinasta
“In an interview with Slush CEO Eerika Savolainen, Marin demanded that Europe break its technological dependence on China.
- We cannot depend on China. Economic relations should not be severed, but we cannot be in a position where an authoritarian country operating with a different logic is able to blackmail us, Marin said.
- I am afraid that we will make the same mistake with technology and digitality as with energy. We thought that a close economic relationship would prevent war, but we were wrong.”
Kyberturvan ammattilaisista on huutava pula
“There is an acute shortage of cyber security professionals. There is an estimated global shortage of three million professionals.”
Innovators 2023
These are some of the innovators and leaders in the electronics technology space.
Ennuste vuodelle 2023: Ongelmat helpottavat
“the demand for smarter and more networked products and systems has also spread to business-to-business sectors, where digitization and the emergence of the fourth industrial revolution have begun to take over the sector. For example, in manufacturing, the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT), characterized by interconnected sensors, communication/data transfer, and advanced data analytics, has transformed the efficiency of production processes in the factory. The IIoT depends on highly advanced integrated circuits that provide intelligence for sensing, measurement and monitoring, power management, control and communication.”
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Tomi Engdahl says:
A chip design that changes everything: 10 Breakthrough Technologies 2023
https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/01/09/1064876/riscv-computer-chips-10-breakthough-technologies-2023/
Computer chip designs are expensive and hard to license. That’s all about to change thanks to the popular open standard known as RISC-V.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Chinese Nuclear Lab Uses Intel, Nvidia Chips Despite Ban
By Anton Shilov published 6 days ago
Blacklisted Chinese entities obtain American hardware on the open market.
https://www.tomshardware.com/news/chinese-nuclear-lab-used-intel-and-nvidia-chips-despite-ban
Tomi Engdahl says:
Transparency Depends on Digital Breadcrumbs But is transparency alone sufficient for a free and open society?
https://spectrum.ieee.org/panopticon
Tomi Engdahl says:
Startups in the Robotics Industry
Robotics startups face specific challenges in design, production & cost. Here’s a solution to help them bring innovative robots to market faster.
https://blog.3ds.com/brands/delmia/startups-in-the-robotics-industry/
Tomi Engdahl says:
Paul Sawers / TechCrunch:
GitHub CEO Thomas Dohmke says open-source developers should be exempt from the EU’s AI Act; the EU parliament is set to vote on a draft in the coming months
GitHub CEO on why open source developers should be exempt from the EU’s AI Act
https://techcrunch.com/2023/02/03/github-ceo-on-why-open-source-developers-should-be-exempt-from-the-eus-ai-act/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cudGVjaG1lbWUuY29tLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGUFG4IehL32SxyDPxjTB-mgT6IKK-l6w2RIBRKACT6dMJLf-UDuF9_-fL4tzItnWGsR71Wpt8tZJhIVaAowykM5sgpBL76Z-VtU21ZibVEJXqbvQY8HLKyC4cCmsyjcZrCu0__qA-rJwpB3YUy_0Wf2b23aDcT09nIwzNdwwkAI
GitHub CEO Thomas Dohmke says that open source developers should be made exempt from the European Union’s (EU) proposed new artificial intelligence (AI) regulations, saying that the opportunity is still there for Europe to lead on AI.
“Open source is forming the foundation of AI in Europe,” Dohmke said onstage at the EU Open Source Policy Summit in Brussels. “The U.S. and China don’t have to win it all.”
The regulations in question come via The Artificial Intelligence Act (AI Act), first proposed back in April 2021 to address the growing reach of AI into our every day lives. The rules would govern AI applications based on their perceived risks, and would effectively be the first AI-centric laws introduced by any major regulatory body.
The European Parliament is set to vote on a draft version of the AI Act in the coming months, and depending on what discussions and debates follow, it could be adopted by the end of 2023.
Tomi Engdahl says:
New York Times:
Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and other tech firms begin 2023 by championing austerity after facing the worst tech year on Wall Street since the 2008 financial crisis
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/02/technology/big-tech-earnings-austerity.html
Tomi Engdahl says:
Bloomberg:
JD.com, China Mobile, and other Chinese retailers are discounting iPhone 14 models by over $100, an unusually steep price cut that suggests dwindling demand — Apple Inc.’s latest iPhones are selling at discounts of more than $100 in China, an unusually steep price cut just months after launch …
Apple’s Latest iPhones Sell at Rare $100-Plus Discounts in China
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-06/apple-s-latest-iphones-sell-at-rare-100-plus-discounts-in-china
Apple may see its sales decline again in the current quarter
The global smartphone market is set to contract in 2023
Apple Inc.’s latest iPhones are selling at discounts of more than $100 in China, an unusually steep price cut just months after launch that suggests dwindling demand for even its highest-end devices.
JD.com Inc. and state carrier China Mobile Ltd. are among the retailers taking 800 yuan ($118) off the iPhone 14 Pro range over 11 days. Retailers in the southern electronics hub of Shenzhen have also begun cutting prices for the same handsets by 700 yuan, the official China Securities Journal reported after visiting outlets around the city. Apple’s own local website, meanwhile, co
Tomi Engdahl says:
Matthew Panzarino / TechCrunch:
An interview with Apple executives Tim Millet and Bob Borchers on M2, building on M1, transitioning from Intel, the future of Mac gaming, Metal APIs, and more — On M2 chips, Mac mini and how the Mac will thrive in gaming — Apple’s M series chips were incredibly well telegraphed when they arrived in late 2021.
Apple execs on M2 chips, winning gamers and when to buy a Mac
https://techcrunch.com/2023/02/06/apple-execs-on-m2-chips-winning-gamers-and-when-to-buy-a-mac/
In an interview, senior Apple execs talk to TC about roadmaps and hopes for Apple Silicon
Tomi Engdahl says:
Ben Thompson / Stratechery:
A look at the four horsemen of the tech recession: a hangover from growth during COVID-19, hardware lifecycles, the end of zero interest rates, and Apple’s ATT
The Four Horsemen of the Tech Recession
https://stratechery.com/2023/the-four-horsemen-of-the-tech-recession/
It really was jarring to see those employment figures the same week that tech company after tech company reported mostly disappointing earnings, and worse forecasts, all on the heels of layoffs. Even Meta, which saw a massive uptick in its stock, reported revenue that was down 4% year-over year; the stock increase was a special case where too many investors bought into Meta Myths that convinced them a company with a still strong and growing core business was somehow doomed.
That’s not to say that tech is an echo chamber: all tech companies are facing unique headwinds that don’t affect most of the economy; let’s call them the four horsemen of the tech recession.
I trust it’s not sacrilegious to have a bit of fun with the four horseman prophecy and use them to explain exactly why the tech industry is in a funk.
The COVID Hangover
Now that may seem like a bit of an odd statement given that COVID is for all intents and purposes over in most of the world. To state the obvious, COVID obviously still exists (and will forever), but it isn’t the dominant factor in the economy. That’s good for the vast majority of businesses — and by extension the broader economy — which were decimated by COVID.
Remember, though, that tech didn’t just survive COVID: it thrived. Consumers with no way to spend discretionary income and flush with stimulus checks bought new devices; people stuck at home subscribed to streaming services and ordered e-commerce; businesses thrust into remote work subscribed to SaaS services that promised to make the experience bearable; and all of this ran on the cloud.
The Hardware Cycle
the hardware cycle. If you have a new PC, you’re not going to buy one for a while. This applies to all consumer electronics and, in the case of Amazon.com, applies to a whole host of durable consumer goods.
The most obvious victim of the hardware cycle was Apple, whose revenue was down 5%, despite the company benefiting from a 14-week quarter. The biggest impact on the company’s revenue was the COVID-related slowdowns in iPhone production in China: a phone not made is a phone not sold, a zero-sum game in its own right.
The End of Zero Interest Rates
This is another horseman the meaning of which is under some dispute; I’m going to interpret the pair of balances as investors discovering that the cost of capital input in their equations can be something other than zero, and the price they are wiling to pay for growth without profitability is falling through the floor.
SaaS was actually the first sector in tech to crash, back in late 2021; a driver was likely another manifestation of the COVID hangover. High-flying stocks like Zoom that exploded during lockdown were the first to slowdown significantly, and the realization that COVID wouldn’t be a persistent economic force soon spread to SaaS companies of all types.
The real problem, though, was increased interest rates. The SaaS model, as I have documented, entails operating unprofitably up-front to acquire customers, with the assumption being that those customers will pay out subscription fees like an annuity; moreover, the assumption was that that annuity would actually increase over time as companies used their initial product as a beachhead to both increase seats and average revenue per user.
This is fine as far as it goes, but the challenge from a valuation perspective is that it is difficult to model those annuities far into the future. First off, predicting the future is hard! Second, one of the biggest lessons to Microsoft’s dismantling of Slack is that it is problematic to extrapolate “big enough to get the attention of Microsoft” growth rates from “popular with startups and media” growth rates. Third, any valuation of long-term revenue streams is subject to a discount rate — money now is worth more than money in the future — and rising interest rates increased the discount rate, which is to say it devalued long-term revenue. This in term reduced the current valuation of SaaS companies across the board, no matter how strong their moat or large their addressable market.
The ATT Recession
This sounds like the most dramatic analogy, but it is arguably the most apt: I have been arguing for two years that Apple’s App Tracking Transparency (ATT) initiative was a big deal, and I may have been understating the impact.
Every company that relies on performance marketing, from Snap to YouTube to Meta to Shopify has seen its revenue growth crash from the moment ATT came into force in late 2021, even as companies and products that were isolated from its effects, from Amazon to Google to Apple advertising has seen growth. Notably, this crash preceded and continued through the Ukraine War, the hike in interest rates, and this very weird recession where the economy is in fact adding record jobs. That’s why Eric Seufert coined the term The App Tracking Transparency Recession; he writes in the introduction
My general belief is that the impact of ATT has been underestimated; ascribing the advertising revenue headwinds being felt most profoundly by social media platforms and other consumer tech categories with substantial exposure to ATT to macroeconomic factors is misguided.
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://www.uusiteknologia.fi/2023/02/07/elektroniikan-komponenttikauppa-kasvoi-venaja-lahes-nollautui/
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://etn.fi/index.php/13-news/14564-oneplus-11-pian-julki-naein-android-osuudet-kehittyivaet-viime-vuonna
Tomi Engdahl says:
Farnell tutki: suunnittelijat haluavat testereitä kotiinsa
https://etn.fi/index.php/13-news/14562-farnell-tutki-suunnittelijat-haluavat-testereitae-kotiinsa
Farnellin element14-yhteisössä on kysytty näkemyksiä siitä, miten suunnittelijat haluavat työskennellä. Hybridityön malli on selvästi suosituin, sillä 90 prosenttia vastaajista kertoi haluavansa ja tarvitsevansa testereitä kotiinsa.
Jos testauslaitteita on käytettävissä myös kotona, suunnittelijat katsovat tuottavuutensa paranevan. Samalla yritykset eivät pysty tarjoamaan tätä mahdollisuutta, vaikka käytössä on monia käteviä ja edullisia ratkaisuja.
Kuinka monella suunnittelijalle sitten on testereitä kotona? Kyselyn mukaan puolella on, toisella puolella ei ole. Täysin etänä voi työskennellä vain 24 prosenttia kyselyyn vastaajista.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Microsoft will wipe free Teams business users’ data if they don’t upgrade to a paid tier
The new free app won’t preserve legacy chats or meetings.
https://www.engadget.com/microsoft-teams-free-classic-retirement-no-data-180521994.html
Now that Microsoft has launched its Teams Premium service, it’s shaking up the free offering for work — and not everyone will be happy. The company is retiring the existing Teams Free version for small business in favor of the similarly-titled Teams (free) on April 12th, and legacy data won’t carry over. Your office will have to pay for at least the Teams Essentials plan ($4 per user per month) to preserve chats, meetings, channels and other key info.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Digital Twins, AI, and Advanced Test Trends in 2023
Jan. 17, 2023
Rapidly evolving technologies are driving adoption of digital twins and other advanced software, and deployments will continue to increase despite economic woes.
https://www.electronicdesign.com/industrial-automation/article/21258185/keysight-technologies-digital-twins-ai-and-advanced-test-trends-in-2023
What you’ll learn:
Ripple effects of potential product recalls and economic woes.
Implementation of advanced test systems.
The rise of digital twins and AI across test and industrial ecosystems.
With R&D efficiency a priority in 2023, expect to see increased use of digital twins for system design and testing. This approach enables faster design cycles, more efficient co-design of hardware and software, a more robust product, and reduced costs while also delivering benefits in improved manufacturability and serviceability. In the coming year, anticipate a shift to connected platforms in which complete products are designed and tested via a digital twin.
Faster 5G rollouts are accelerating demand and expectations for adjacent advances in complex technologies like autonomous driving, new distributed Internet of Things (IoT) applications, and the rollout of metaverse capabilities. Products involving this level of complexity need to meet more compliance and connectivity standards, operate across a much wider range of often unknown conditions, and are expected to be backward compatible with other systems that aren’t yet in the market.
As a result, expectations are that product developers will be tempted to build—known as do-it-yourself, or DIY—rather than buy their digital twins. Those taking DIY shortcuts will be leading the spike in product recalls.
Product Recalls and Recession Fears
Product recall rates will rise between 2023 and 2026. The pent-up demand for new products capable of connecting to 5G capacity was already putting pressure on developers before the worldwide pandemic shutdowns. The follow-on supply chain issues, which made many parts scarce, caused rapid redesigns of products using substitute parts, with many not designed to the same specifications. As a result, it’s expected that there will be an increase in product failures as the wave of these products hits the market.
The concern over a recession in 2023 will drive more enterprises to shift data-intensive tasks to the cloud to reduce infrastructure and operational costs while also improving cybersecurity. Moving applications to the cloud also will help organizations deliver greater data-driven customer experiences.
Advanced Test and Encryption
Keysight Technologies
258 Advancing Development With Digital Twins And Ai
For example, advanced simulation and test data-management capabilities such as real-time feature extraction and encryption will enable use of a secure cloud-based data mesh. That mesh will accelerate and deepen customer insights through new algorithms operating on a richer data set. In the year ahead, expect the cloud to be a surprising boon for companies as they navigate economic uncertainty.
Encryption advances will bolster cloud and network security. Organizations have historically been hesitant to adopt network- and cloud-based software and services due to security concerns. Expect these to be addressed in 2023 through robust encryption capabilities and greater access control of measurement parameters and data. This will give users unparalleled assurance of data integrity from probe to cloud—and back. As a result, we expect more cloud and network security investments to help enterprises protect the ever-expanding threat surface in the year ahead.
Digital Twins and AI
Keysight Technologies
215 Digital Twins For Rf System Design
Digital-twin advances have gone hand-in-hand with artificial-intelligence (AI) and machine-learning (ML) technology. The cost of exploding data volumes in this space will be driven down by application of AI/ML technology. Automation and AI/ML techniques will emerge to reduce costs associated with managing today’s increasing volumes of measurement data.
In addition, these technologies will diminish the need for manual analysis of data sets, extract critical metadata, and separate measurement errors from true device-under-test failures, which will speed insight and reduce wasted effort.
Meeting government mandates and societal imperatives for carbon reduction will continue to be a focus in 2023. AI/ML-enabled optimizations based on measurement and monitoring of industrial and commercial infrastructure, such as data networks, will drive the next level of energy-use management.
Digital twins and AI are transformative technologies promising to dramatically alter the world. While the technologies aren’t new, real-world use cases will emerge to show the transformative nature of these technologies.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Martin Coulter / Reuters:
Google’s Bard announcement tweet included a GIF of the AI chatbot giving an inaccurate answer to a question about the James Webb Space Telescope; GOOG drops 7%+ — Google published an online advertisement in which its much anticipated AI chatbot BARD delivered inaccurate answers.
Alphabet shares dive after Google AI chatbot Bard flubs answer in ad
https://www.reuters.com/technology/google-ai-chatbot-bard-offers-inaccurate-information-company-ad-2023-02-08/
LONDON, Feb 8 (Reuters) – Alphabet Inc (GOOGL.O) lost $100 billion in market value on Wednesday after its new chatbot shared inaccurate information in a promotional video and a company event failed to dazzle, feeding worries that the Google parent is losing ground to rival Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O).
Tomi Engdahl says:
Abner Li / 9to5Google:
Google releases the first Android 14 developer preview, for Pixel phones, offering multi-device experiences, customization features, security changes, and more — Google announced the Android 14 Developer Preview today. The February release was expected and matches last year, while it comes as 13 QPR2 is still in beta.
https://9to5google.com/2023/02/08/android-14-developer-preview-pixel/
Tomi Engdahl says:
Michael Potuck / 9to5Mac:
Many Twitter users reported issues on February 8, from outages to not being able to tweet except by scheduling or via an API; the issues seem to be almost fixed — Shortly after Twitter launched its huge increase in max character count to 4,000 today, many users aren’t able to tweet this afternoon.
Twitter goes down worldwide just minutes after launching expanded tweet counts [U: Fixed]
https://9to5mac.com/2023/02/08/twitter-goes-down-worldwide/
Tomi Engdahl says:
Paul Thurrott / Thurrott:
Microsoft plans to embed Adobe’s Acrobat PDF tech in Edge for Windows 10 and Windows 11 starting in March 2023 and remove Edge’s legacy PDF engine in March 2024
https://www.thurrott.com/cloud/web-browsers/microsoft-edge/279165/microsoft-is-bringing-adobe-acrobat-pdf-to-edge
Tomi Engdahl says:
Teknologiateollisuuden tilauskysyntä heikkenee – elektroniikka kasvaa
https://www.uusiteknologia.fi/2023/02/09/teknologiateollisuuden-tilauskysynta-heikkenee/
Sijainti
Etusivu > Artikkelit/raportit > Teknologiateollisuuden tilauskysyntä heikkenee – elektroniikka kasvaa
Teknologiateollisuuden tilauskysyntä heikkenee – elektroniikka kasvaa
Artikkelit/raportit
- 9.2.2023
Teknologiateollisuuden tilauskertymä pitää tuoreen tilauskantakyselyn mukaan edelleen yllättävänkin hyvin pintansa, vaikka kysyntä on jatkanut heikentymistä. Kuluvan vuoden liikevaihdon kasvu kuitenkin hidastuu tai pysähtyy kokonaan, vaikka korkea hintataso tukee toistaiseksi liikevaihdon positiivista kehitystä. Esimerkiksi elektroniikassa ja sähkötekniikassa uusien tilausten arvo jatkoi edelleen kasvuaan. Tiedot perustuvat tuoreeseen tilauskanta- ja henkilöstötiedusteluun.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Mikä ihmeen komponenttipula?
https://etn.fi/index.php/13-news/14573-mikae-ihmeen-komponenttipula
Komponenttien jakelijoiden järjestö DMASS raportoi, että jakelijat myivät viime vuonna komponentteja 19,5 miljardilla eurolla. Summa on 32,6 prosenttia suurempi kuin edellisvuonna, jolloin DMASS-jäsenet kirjasivat edellisen ennätyksensä.
Luvut saavat kyllä aiheellisesti kysymään, mikä on se komponenttipula, josta valmistajat ovat meuhkanneet viimeiset kaksi vuotta. Ainakaan puolijohteissa pulaa ei ole, sillä loka-joulukuussa jakelijat myivät puolijohteita 38 prosenttia enemmän kuin vuotta aikaisemin. Passiivisissa ja sähkömekaanisissa komponenteissa kasvua tuli 8 prosenttia.
Silti DMASS:n puheenjohtaja Hermann Reiter puhuu edelleen saatavuuden ongelmista. – Vaikka olemme varmasti iloisia ennätysluvuista, olemme vielä helpottuneempia siitä, että komponenttien saatavuus paranee. Saatavuus ei tosin ole parantunut aivan kaikissa tuotteissa.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Entä sitten, kun sekunnin simulointi tuottaa 150 teratavua dataa?
https://etn.fi/index.php/13-news/14574-entae-sitten-kun-sekunnin-simulointi-tuottaa-150-teratavua-dataa
Lähivuosina matkaamme simuloituihin maailmoihin. Simulaatioita käytetään jo kilpa-autojen rakentamiseen, sään ennustamiseen ja osakemarkkinoiden mallintamiseen. Simulaatioiden käyttöä rajoittaa toteutuksen vaikeus sekä tehokkaan laitteiston ja erikoisosaajien tarve. Esimerkiksi lentokoneen siiven dynamiikan yhden sekunnin simulaatio voi vaatia jopa 150 teratavua dataa, kirjoittaa Amazonin teknologiajohtaja Werner Vogels.
Simuloinnit ja digitaaliset kaksoset ovat kypsyneet hitaasti vuosien ajan, mutta vaikutukset ovat vielä olleet rajallisia. Vuonna 2023 avautuu kuitenkin uusi aikakausi pilven valtavan mittakaavan ja helpon saavutettavuuden ansiosta. Tämä mahdollistaa uusia käyttötapauksia, joita fyysiset rajoitukset eivät sido.
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://etn.fi/index.php/13-news/14568-piikiekkoja-200-jalkapallokentaen-verran
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://www.uusiteknologia.fi/2023/02/08/siirtyminen-ledeihin-vauhdittuu-siirtymakausi-loppuu/
Tomi Engdahl says:
76% of vulnerabilities are OWASP Top 10
A recent Forrester report reaffirms that “applications remain the most common attack vector.” The Synopsys Cybersecurity Research Center (CyRC) published a report that digs into the latest AppSec trends.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Google Describes Privacy, Security Improvements in Android 14
https://www.securityweek.com/google-describes-privacy-security-improvements-in-android-14/
Google has released the first Android 14 developer preview and has announced some of the security improvements the platform update will include.
Google this week announced the availability of the first Android 14 developer preview and also shared details on some of the security and privacy improvements the platform update will bring.
Expected to arrive on devices sometime in fall, Android 14 brings new features and APIs, as well as behavioral changes that might impact applications. The purpose of the developer preview is to help application developers learn about these changes and test their applications for compatibility issues.
One of the security enhancements the platform update is set to bring is related to runtime receivers and builds on changes introduced in Android 13, when Google instructed developers to specify whether their application’s registered broadcast receiver should be visible to other apps on the device.
Before Android 13, any application could send unprotected broadcasts to dynamically-registered receivers that were not protected by a signature permission.
To help protect apps from security vulnerabilities, “apps and services that target Android 14 and use context-registered receivers are required to specify a flag to indicate whether or not the receiver should be exported to all other apps on the device,” Google says.
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://hackaday.com/2023/02/09/ski-season-sees-apples-crash-detection-system-fire-deluge-of-false-positives/
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://etn.fi/index.php/13-news/14579-arm-on-vahvempi-kuin-koskaan
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://etn.fi/index.php/13-news/14578-bluetooth-haluaa-kaapata-kauppojen-saehkoeiset-hintalaput
Tomi Engdahl says:
Dina Bass / Bloomberg:
Sources: Microsoft cuts jobs in its Surface, HoloLens, and Xbox units; heavy cuts to the HoloLens hardware team raise questions about the goggles’ third version
Microsoft Cuts Jobs in HoloLens, Surface, Xbox as Layoffs Continue
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-10/microsoft-cuts-jobs-in-hololens-surface-xbox-as-layoffs-continue
Job cuts in HoloLens raise question about future versions of goggles
Tomi Engdahl says:
Maria Deutscher / SiliconANGLE:
Microsoft’s GitHub cuts 10% of its staff, or an estimated 300+; GitLab cuts 7%, or an estimated 114; report: GitHub will close offices and shift to remote work — Microsoft Corp.’s GitHub unit and publicly traded rival GitLab Inc. today both announced layoffs, disclosing plans to let go 10% and 7% of their respective
https://siliconangle.com/2023/02/09/github-gitlab-announce-job-cuts/
Tomi Engdahl says:
Sara Fischer / Axios:
Yahoo plans to lay off 20%+ of its workforce and restructure its ad tech unit, impacting 50%+ of the unit, or 1,600+ people; CEO says the cuts are “strategic” — Yahoo plans to lay off more than 20% of its total workforce as part of a major restructuring of its ad tech unit, executives told Axios.¨
Exclusive: Yahoo to lay off more than 20% of staff as it shrinks ad biz
https://www.axios.com/2023/02/09/yahoo-layoffs-2023-tech-media-companies
Tomi Engdahl says:
Michael Wayland / CNBC:
GM signs a long-term deal with GlobalFoundries to establish exclusive production capacity at the chip maker’s New York facility for GM’s key auto suppliers — – GM has signed a long-term agreement with GlobalFoundries to establish exclusive production capacity of U.S.-produced semiconductor chips, the companies announced Thursday.
General Motors signs deal with GlobalFoundries for exclusive U.S. semiconductor production
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/09/general-motors-globalfoundries-strike-semiconductor-deal.html
Tomi Engdahl says:
Reinhardt Krause / Investor’s Business Daily:
Cloudflare reports Q4 revenue up 42% YoY to $274.7M, vs. $274.1M est., and FY 2023 revenue guidance between $1.33B and $1.34B, vs. $1.31B est.; NET jumps 9%+ — Cloudflare (NET) on Thursday reported fourth-quarter earnings and revenue that edged by Wall Street targets.
https://www.investors.com/news/technology/cloudflare-stock-cloudflare-earnings-net-stock-q42022/
Celso Martinho / The Cloudflare Blog:
Cloudflare debuts Wildebeest, an open-source ActivityPub server built on its Supercloud service that makes it easier to self-host a Mastodon-compatible instance
Welcome to Wildebeest: the Fediverse on Cloudflare
https://blog.cloudflare.com/welcome-to-wildebeest-the-fediverse-on-cloudflare/
Tomi Engdahl says:
Michael Kan / PCMag:
The FCC approves Amazon’s plan to mitigate its Kuiper satellite internet system’s orbital debris; SpaceX asked for stricter conditions on Kuiper’s deployment — SpaceX had urged the FCC to impose stricter conditions to prevent Amazon’s satellite internet system Project Kuiper from producing orbital debris.
FCC Sides With Amazon, Clears Plan for Project Kuiper Over SpaceX Objections
https://uk.pcmag.com/networking/145351/fcc-sides-with-amazon-clears-plan-for-project-kuiper-over-spacex-objections
SpaceX had urged the FCC to impose stricter conditions to prevent Amazon’s satellite internet system Project Kuiper from producing orbital debris.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Bloomberg:
Meta submits data to the EU showing that pop up content warnings stopped Facebook users sharing 25% of flagged posts and 38% on Instagram; TikTok reports 29% — The warnings that pop up when someone tries to share potentially false or misleading posts on TikTok Inc., Instagram and Facebook are ignored most of the time.
Social Media Warnings Rarely Stop Users Sharing, EU Reports Show
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-09/social-media-warnings-rarely-stop-users-sharing-eu-reports-show
Tomi Engdahl says:
Kyle Bradshaw / 9to5Google:
UK CMA’s cloud gaming market share data for 2022: Xbox had 60%-70%, Nvidia GeForce had 10%-20%, PlayStation 10%-20%, Google Stadia 0%-5%, and Amazon Luna 0%-5%
Google Stadia had less than 10% market share among cloud gaming services
https://9to5google.com/2023/02/08/google-stadia-market-share-cloud-gaming/
Tomi Engdahl says:
Jillian Deutsch / Bloomberg:
The EU says Twitter’s first voluntary report on how the company was tackling disinformation lacked data and didn’t include commitments to empower fact-checkers
Twitter Draws EU Ire for Sending Incomplete Disinformation Report
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-09/twitter-twtr-draws-eu-ire-for-sending-incomplete-disinformation-report
Lack of commitments may hurt Musk’s relations with regulators
Twitter owner pitches tool found ineffective on disinformation
Tomi Engdahl says:
Big Changes Ahead For Chip Technology And Industry Dynamics
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How customization, complexity, and geopolitical tensions are upending the global status quo.
https://semiengineering.com/big-changes-ahead-for-chip-technology-and-industry-dynamics/
Tomi Engdahl says:
Cascadeo IT Guru On AWS Charge, Tech Layoffs, ChatGPT And Why ‘Old IT World’ Hasn’t Died Off Yet
https://www.crn.com/news/cloud/cascadeo-it-guru-on-aws-charge-tech-layoffs-chatgpt-and-why-old-it-world-hasn-t-died-off-yet
Cascadeo CTO and President Jared Reimer talks to CRN about its AWS push in 2023, why the “old IT world” hasn’t faded away yet, and how ChatGPT will “eventually be as good as a competent human software developer.”
Tomi Engdahl says:
Apple just saved Arm-based Windows laptops, and it’s a wakeup call Intel needs
By Matt Hanson published 1 day ago
Intel (and especially AMD) under threat from Qualcomm and Apple
https://www.techradar.com/news/apple-just-saved-arm-based-windows-laptops-and-its-a-wakeup-call-intel-needs
While news around general PC sales has been rather bleak of late, there has been one section of the market that’s bucking the downward trend, and actually increasing: Arm-based laptops.
As Toms Hardware reports(opens in new tab), sales of Arm-based laptops not only increased last year but are expected to rise again this year as well.
This is a remarkable change in fortunes, as the laptop market had primarily been dominated by devices powered by Intel (and to a lesser extent, AMD) hardware, particularly processors. In the past, there have been attempts to release laptops running a specially-designed version of Windows, known as Windows on ARM (and sometimes Windows on Snapdragon), and Arm-based architecture.
Arm System on Chips (SoCs) were mainly used in mobile devices such as smartphones and tablets, and the idea for these early Arm-based laptops was that they would bring some of the benefits of those devices, such as long battery lives and almost instant boot times, to laptops.
However, that didn’t go according to plan.
Mostly Armless
The problem with Arm-based Windows laptops, in those early days, at least, was that while they did provide some of those features, especially long battery life, they were hampered by poor performance, dismal software support (many apps did not have Arm compatibility), and high price tags.
It led to Arm-based laptops being dismissed by many people for a long time. There were some bright spots, of course. Many of the best Chromebooks use Arm processors, and those popular laptops showed it was possible to create excellent devices using the hardware.
Enter Apple
While Microsoft’s attempts to get Windows laptops running on Arm hardware faltered, Apple came along and made it look easy.
In 2020, the company launched its M1 chip – an Arm-based SoC that debuted with the MacBook Air (M1, 2020), which is still one of the best laptops you can buy, in my opinion – and the MacBook Pro 13-inch (M1, 2020).
All of a sudden, the potential of Arm-based laptops was realized. There were powerful laptops that outclassed the previous Intel-based models, while dramatically extending battery lives. Crucially, they ran the full macOS operating system, and Apple made sure that major apps were either M1 compatible, or could run via a compatibility layer using the Rosetta 2 tool.
Many of the criticisms of Windows on Arm laptops, and even Chromebooks, could not be leveled at these new MacBooks. Performance was on par or exceeded Intel and AMD chips, you could run a full-featured operating system with all of your favorite apps, and prices were not extortionate. Apple is never going to release a budget laptop, but these M1 machines launched at the same price as the previous models.
As a rising tide lifts all boats, Apple’s success with its M1 MacBooks has meant the entire Arm laptop market has grown, with a report from Counterpoint Research(opens in new tab) showing that market share grew from 11% in 2021 to 13% in 2022, and it’s expected to hit 15% this year.
The scale of Apple’s impact on the Arm laptop market is pretty clear, with Apple taking a huge 90% share against more established Arm chip makers MediaTek and Qualcomm.
Counterpoint Research confident in predicting the Arm laptop market share will continue to rise over the next few years, reaching 25% by 2027. That’s certainly ambitious, and it would mean that Arm-based laptop sales would overtake AMD-based laptops, but unlike a few years ago, I can actually see this happening.
What does this mean for Windows, Intel and AMD?
Despite Apple’s clear dominance over the Arm market, followed up by Chromebooks, this does represent an opportunity for Windows on Arm devices as well. The stigma over Arm devices has mainly evaporated thanks to Apple’s successes, and while I’m often hesitant to suggest Microsoft copies Apple, I’m going to do it here: Microsoft! Copy Apple!
Specifically, make sure that there’s a growing library of Windows applications and software that are compatible with Arm devices. If app developers are hesitant, then come up with a solution that works as well as Apple’s Rosetta 2. Basically, people need to be able to pick up a Windows on Arm laptop and run all of their favorite apps.
For Intel and AMD, this growth is more concerning. Laptops have never felt like they were a priority for AMD, but it’d still sting if Arm laptop sales overtook its own by 2027. As for Intel, it will still have a healthy market lead, but it won’t be comfortable losing market share to rivals. Both companies will need to be more competitive, offering similar perks to Arm, especially when it comes to battery life.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Chiplets Taking Root As Silicon-Proven Hard IP
https://semiengineering.com/chiplets-taking-root-as-silicon-proven-hard-ip/
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Technical and business challenges persist, but momentum is building.
Chiplets are all the rage today, and for good reason. With the various ways to design a semiconductor-based system today, IP reuse via chiplets appears to be an effective and feasible solution, and a potentially low-cost alternative to shrinking everything to the latest process node.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Why network-on-chip IP in SoC must be physically aware
https://www.edn.com/why-network-on-chip-ip-in-soc-must-be-physically-aware/
Today, multicore system-on-chip (SoC) designs can be composed of hundreds of IP blocks, typically containing up to ten million logic gates. One way for SoC developers to create devices of this complexity is to make use of proven IP blocks provided by trusted third-party vendors. There’s no point in devoting thousands of hours to reinventing a USB 3.2 Gen x interface, for example, when it is already available as off-the-shelf IP. Instead, engineers can focus their efforts on creating their own internal IP that will differentiate their SoC from any competitive offerings.
When it comes to connecting the IP blocks so they can talk to each other, the only practical option for the majority of today’s high-capacity and high-complexity SoCs is to use a network-on-chip (NoC).
Tomi Engdahl says:
Benedict Evans:
A 2023 overview of macro tech trends, focusing on the e-commerce slowdown, layoffs, Amazon, advertising, and generative AI opportunities beyond text and images — Presentations Every year, I produce a big presentation exploring macro and strategic trends in the tech industry. This year, ‘The New Gatekeepers’.
https://www.ben-evans.com/presentations
Tomi Engdahl says:
Michael Kan / PCMag:
Mercury Research: x86 CPU shipments from Intel, AMD, and others fell 34% YoY and 19% QoQ in Q4, the biggest drops in 30 years; 374M units were shipped in 2022
CPUs See Biggest Shipment Decline in 30 Years
https://uk.pcmag.com/processors/145366/cpus-see-biggest-shipment-decline-in-30-years
Low demand and excess inventory cause a huge decline in x86 CPU shipments for Q4, according to Mercury Research.
In another sign that the PC pandemic boom is over, CPU shipments took a historic dive during last year’s fourth quarter, according to Mercury Research.
In Q4, x86 CPU shipments from vendors including Intel and AMD suffered their biggest year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter decline in Mercury Research’s 30 years of tracking the market.
The year-over-year decline amounted to 34% while the quarter-on-quarter drop came in at 19%, Dean McCarron, president of Mercury Research, told PCMag on Thursday.
Low demand for PCs and excess inventory at retailers and vendors depressed the CPU shipment numbers, two years after the market saw soaring growth on laptop sales and surging purchases for PC graphics cards. Instead, 2022 witnessed demand shrink back to more normal levels amid persistent inflation and the ongoing economic downturn.
“For the year, 2022 unit shipments were 374 million (excluding ARM processors) and revenues were $65 billion, down 21 and 19%, respectively,” Mercury Research added. “While this appears very gloomy, note that overall processor market revenue was still higher in 2022 than any year ever with the exception of 2020 and 2021.”
The excess product inventory is also causing both Intel and AMD to under-ship CPU units as both companies admitted in recent earnings calls. “Additionally PC demand for processors is lower, and weakening macroeconomic concerns is driving PC OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) to reduce their inventory as well,” Mercury Research said.
In Q4, shipments for laptops suffered their largest year-over-year decline ever recorded. Meanwhile, shipments for desktop CPUs also fell significantly.
Tomi Engdahl says:
The metaverse was the next big thing and now it’s generative AI. We asked top tech executives to cut through the hype. They say this one’s for real.
The ChatGPT AI hype cycle is peaking, but even tech skeptics don’t expect a bust
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/11/chatgpt-ai-hype-cycle-is-peaking-but-even-tech-skeptics-doubt-a-bust.html?utm_content=Main&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1676151806
KEY POINTS
OpenAI’s ChatGPT, with new funding from Microsoft, has grown to over one million users faster than many of dominant tech companies, apps and platforms of the past decade.
Unlike the metaverse concept, which had a hype cycle based on an idea still nebulous to many, generative AI as tech’s next big thing is being built on top of decades of existing machine learning already embedded in business processes.
We asked top technology officers, specifically reaching out to many at non-tech sector companies, to break down the potential and pitfalls of AI adoption.
The arrival of OpenAI’s ChatGPT and generative AI only a few years after the hype cycle over the metaverse has attracted both the AI bulls and bears as tech pursues its next big thing. The metaverse came with NFTs, an extension of cryptocurrencies and the blockchain, and for now, it’s all looking like the hype cycle warning is a good thing to heed. One thing is certain: Silicon Valley needs a next big thing, as the industry is seeing a contraction unlike anything it has experienced over the past decade, with tech leading layoffs in the economy and cost-cutting now the norm for the one sector which has been accustomed to operating with a blank check from investors.
The market is clearly taking the latest AI advances seriously, maybe nowhere more clearly than this week’s battle between Microsoft and Google over competing AI for search engines. Google’s shares dropped by roughly 13% over a two-day stretch after its attempt to respond to Microsoft with its Bard AI was deemed a “rushed, botched” effort by its own employees, which may have only served to magnify the risk to its search dominance. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella was clearly enjoying his rival’s anxiety this week, telling the FT, “From now on, the [gross margin] of search is going to drop forever. There is such margin in search, which for us is incremental. For Google it’s not, they have to defend it all.”
Tomi Engdahl says:
DRAM-markkina romahti, DDR5 nostaa taas kasvuun
https://etn.fi/index.php/13-news/14582-dram-markkina-romahti-ddr5-nostaa-taas-kasvuun
DRM-moduulien eli läppärien DIMM-kampojen markkina kääntyi viime vuoden opulla nopeasti laskuun kahden lihavan vuoden jälkeen. Syynä notkahdukseen oli Yole Developpementin mukaan useat tekijät, mukaan lukien geopoliittiset jännitteet ja maailmanlaajuinen inflaatio.
Yolen mukaan DRAM-moduulien markkinat kutistuivat viime vuonna peräti 36 prosenttia ja sen arvo oli 6,6 miljardia dollaria. Tämäon iso notkahdus edellisvuoden 10,3 miljardista dollarista.
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://www.kingston.com/en/blog/gaming/build-your-own-pc
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://etn.fi/index.php/13-news/14592-uusi-prosessori-naeyttoe-ja-kamera-nostivat-kalleimman-iphonen-hintaa
Applen uusin ja kaunein puhelin on iPhone 14 Pro Max. Sen edullisin versio on varustettu 128 gigatavun massamuistilla. Counterpoint Researchin komponentti- eli BoM-analyysin mukaan laitteen valmistaminen maksaa Applelle 474 dollaria, mikäli mukana on modeemi myös millimetriaalloille.
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://etn.fi/index.php/13-news/14593-geekbench-uudistui-nyt-voit-mitata-laitteesi-todellisen-suorituskyvyn
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://www.geekbench.com/download/