The semiconductor industry is experiencing rapid changes, ranging from the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) to the growing use of tariffs. The relentless march of artificial intelligence dominates headlines, powered by increasingly sophisticated silicon brains. In this narrative, chip designer Nvidia and manufacturer Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) have emerged as the undisputed leaders, seemingly leaving legacy giant Intel struggling to keep pace.
Has any US president’s term in office in a century started as badly from a stock market perspective as Donald Trump’s term from January 20 to April 8, 2025? This has caused significant harm to investors. What makes it special is that the market turmoil can be attributed to the actions of President Donald Trump and his administration. There are also export restrictions. Technology giant Nvidia faces billions in losses due to Trump restrictions. Donald Trump’s administration has restricted the technology company’s exports of artificial intelligence chips to China. Semiconductors are at the heart of nearly all modern technology. The global race to secure component availability has been intensifying as demand for these essential parts grows.
Trump’s tariff mix is causing problems for the semiconductor industry as latest tariff plans could cause significant disruption to the global semiconductor supply chain. The Trump administration aims to boost domestic production, but the measures also threaten to raise production costs and make it more difficult to obtain components. Taiwan’s TSMC, which supplies 90 percent of the world’s advanced semiconductors, could face difficulties, which will affect American technology companies such as Apple, Nvidia and AMD.
April 7th, 2025, is now being dubbed “Orange Monday,” and it’s left global markets charred and investors crying into their diversified portfolios. Trump chip tariff threat throws wrench into global supply network. The Trump administration’s steps toward extending its tariffs to the semiconductor industry threaten many business. The strategy by Apple to diversify its manufacturing from China seemed like a solid strategy, until President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” this hit many other countries, too. Trump tariffs threaten Apple’s supply chain, stock suffers steepest drop in 5 years.
Today, many automakers, including original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), contract manufacturers (CMs), and electronic manufacturing service (EMS) providers, face the dual challenge of keeping pace with rapid technological advancements while managing significant geopolitical risks affecting their supply chains. Trump’s planned tariffs on chip imports risk upending a global supply chain and could lead to oversupply as the US and other countries seek domestic production Pentagon leaders are calling for thousands of drones to prepare for war in the Pacific. But as Trump’s tariffs escalate tensions with China, they face an uncomfortable reality: Silicon Valley’s drone companies are addicted to Chinese components.
Trump has repeatedly called out and accused Taiwan of stealing the U.S. chip manufacturing business and touted tariffs on semiconductor imports. Trump wants to see more chip manufacturing to happen in USA. Semiconductors are at the heart of America’s strength, enabling the essential technologies that drive economic growth and national security. Semiconductors are at the heart of America’s strength, enabling the essential technologies that drive economic growth and national security. With demand for semiconductors projected to increase significantly by 2030 and beyond, semiconductor companies are ramping up production and innovation to keep pace. The Future of U.S. Semiconductor manufacturing in 2025 seems to be TSMC’s Expansion and Intel’s delay. Two major players in the industry, TSMC and Intel, stand at opposite ends of the current manufacturing landscape as the United States attempts to boost its domestic chip ecosystem. TSMC’s costly expansion and Intel’s delayed reshoring efforts represent the opposite ends of America’s semiconductor manufacturing efforts.
There are expert views that US chip production targets edge further out of reach under Trump administration because of FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) on the markets now. The future of the CHIPS and Science Act and its manufacturing funding is increasingly doubtful. Donald Trump was vocal about his criticism of the CHIPS and Science Act that was meant to spur the build-out of a domestic semiconductor manufacturing ecosystem. The CHIPS Act has become a cornerstone of U.S. policy to revitalize domestic semiconductor manufacturing. When it was announced, a flurry of investments from semiconductor manufacturers quickly accumulated to over $400 billion. While its passage and funding allotment did not occur as quickly as initially planned—something noted by many chipmakers over the last few years—it received significant bipartisan support within the U.S. government. The president is beginning to take action against the law to pivot towards tariffs, hoping to entice companies to onshore production in a bid to avoid import tax hikes.
Reuters reports that “some officials have expressed concern Trump could seek to invalidate binding grant agreements struck in the Biden administration.” Some projects are already facing uncertain futures. There is fear that US chip production targets edge further out of reach under Trump administration. Intel’s ambitious $28 billion semiconductor factory in Ohio has experienced significant delays. Originally planned as a cornerstone of Intel’s strategy to restore chip manufacturing to the U.S. and part of the CHIPS and Science Act’s push for government approval, the delay in Ohio raises questions about Intel’s ability to meet its goals for American chip production. The delay also raises questions about the future stability of the semiconductor industry in the U.S. for companies that don’t have the same capital as giants like TSMC.
There are also some agreements that seem to show some wins with the new tariffs politics. Trump announces $100 billion investment in U.S. from TSMC. Also Nvidia aims to spend several hundred billion dollars to procure US-made chips and electronics over the next four years, the Financial Times reported.
TSMC’s New Arizona Fab! Apple Will Finally Make Advanced Chips In The U.S.
While Trump’s tariff policy might boost investments into the U.S. by semiconductor manufacturers looking to avoid added costs, it won’t solve the labor shortage impacting the industry. Solving the problem will require a combined effort from chip manufacturers, education leaders, and government support. Those will be challenges. Semiconductor Industry Association project the semiconductor industry’s workforce will grow by nearly 115,000 jobs by 2030, from approximately 345,000 jobs today to approximately 460,000 jobs by the end of the decade, representing 33% growth. Of these new jobs, we estimate roughly 67,000—or 58% of projected new jobs (and 80% of projected new technical jobs)—risk going unfilled at current degree completion rates. Intel’s Ohio project, touted as one of the most ambitious semiconductor production facilities in the U.S., has faced delays due to logistical challenges, workforce issues, and regulatory hurdles. TSMC also had to delay its Arizona production schedules when it became clear there wasn’t enough specialized labor to operate its new facilities. This situation is not inherently unique to the U.S., as China, the EU, and even chip powerhouse Taiwan face obstacles caused by the labor shortage. To create a strong domestic ecosystem, the U.S. must grow a strong workforce that can run the new facilities.
In addition to chips there is will to have move the whole electronics products back to USA from Asia. Experts doubt Trump line that tariffs will shift manufacturing from Asia. The White House is insisting that Donald Trump’s vision of Apple’s flagship iPhones being manufactured in the US will come to fruition, despite assertions from analysts and the company itself that it would not be possible.. The reason seems to be that the US does not have the workforce of other nations where the vast majority of its electronics are currently manufactured, such as China, which makes about 85% of iPhones, India and Vietnam. The Wall Street Journal reported that, based on conversations with manufacturing experts, making and assembling all the components required to build an iPhone in the US would be impossible. “But shifting some manufacturing here? Not totally insane,” wrote WSJ’s tech team. For propaganda purposes China Creates Mocking AI Video of Average Americans Working in Garment Factory.
Intel 2025: Intel is in problem, and it is expected that it will sell some of it’s parts in 2025. In March Intel Corporation announced that its board of directors has appointed Lip-Bu Tan, an accomplished technology leader with deep semiconductor industry experience, as chief executive officer. The cutting-edge High Numerical Aperture Extreme Ultraviolet (High NA EUV) lithography tools is not expected to be production-ready until 2027 for a later node, designated 14A. It is expected that before that Intel would be forced to rely on existing Low NA EUV technology for 18A, likely employing complex and costly multi-patterning techniques. But new feature in Intel’s 18A is the utilization of BSPDN (Backside Power Delivery) that can give improved power efficiency along with signal integrity. Intel’s 18A is said to report an SRAM density equal to that of TSMC’s N2 process, signaling a massive breakthrough for the IFS and its semiconductor ambitions. Nvidia and Broadcom are running manufacturing tests with Intel, using the company’s most advanced production techniques, known as 18A. AMD is also evaluating whether Intel’s 18A manufacturing process is suitable for it.
TSMC-Intel semiconductor race is pretty much on, and it looks like the competition is going to get a lot more fiercer. Dutch company ASML – the sole global supplier of all EUV lithography machines – High NA EUV represents the next generation of this critical technology. TSMC gained ground by adopting EUV and at the same time, Intel extended the life of older DUV technology with complex multi-patterning, ultimately losing its process leadership.
Intel reported a 2024 net loss of $18.8 billion, its first since 1986, driven by large impairments. Intel was trying to get in on the AI bandwagon and invested a lot in it. It turned out that they have no chance of getting in on the AI bandwagon and ARM chips are still eating their x86 CPU market. This is a big business problem. Intel is expected to sell some of it’s parts. Multiple companies have expressed interest in buying parts of Intel. Intel is likely to be broken up into at least two, possibly even three or more pieces. Who will get Altera in 2025? Was the first question that was answered. Intel’s breakup begins with sale of $8.75B-valued Altera to private equity giant Silver Lake. Then we are waiting for the next move in Intel’s plan to shed non-core assets and reinvent itself. Hell freezes, pigs fly: Rumor has it that Intel could merge with AMD’s former foundry in potential multi-billion deal with GlobalFoundries or Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) and the world’s number two chip design firm Broadcom divide its assets up. We will sew that is happening later this year.
The buildout of AI infrastructure in the US has reached a macro-level scale, and ensuring continuous growth will require ample availability of capital. There is a fear that the economic uncertainty induced by Trump tariffs could become the single largest barrier to American AI supremacy because economic uncertainty often leads to delays, and delays leads to contractions. Fortunately, on a micro level, research indicates that the tariffs will not impact (for the most part) the competitiveness of the United States in AI infrastructure costs but rather through capital accessibility. Let’s wait to see how changing tariffs, loopholes, and global trade for AI-related infrastructure equipment. Cost of capital is rising, with soaring 10 year interest rates, and the tightening of financial conditions could likely lead to a short-term slowdown in the AI infrastructure buildout.. Tariffs can potentially have major short-term impact on US hyperscalers if they affect the key components. At the moment GPU servers are largely exempted from tariffs, but optical module costs will increase by 25-40%. Some manufacturers are significantly better positioned than others. Mexico is already a large assembly hub and will take a central role in this new world order. Datacenter construction costs could increase by mid-to-high single digits – but the TCO impact for GPU cloud operators is likely less than 2%.increase. Retaliatory tariffs targeting US Big Tech are possible.
Sources:
https://futurism.com/elon-musk-trouble-donald-trump-tariffs
https://www.salkunrakentaja.fi/2025/04/trump-tullifarssi-aloitteleva-sijoittaja/
https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/events/orange-monday-2025-stock-market-crash
https://trib.al/3SqaBJz
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https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade-war/Trump-tariffs/Trump-chip-tariff-threat-throws-wrench-into-global-supply-network
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63 Comments
Tomi Engdahl says:
Siirtyminen 22 nanometriin on Silicon Labsille iso askel
https://etn.fi/index.php/13-news/17574-siirtyminen-22-nanometriin-on-silicon-labsille-iso-askel
Silicon Labs on julkistanut uuden sukupolven järjestelmäpiirit (SoC), jotka merkitsevät merkittävää teknologista harppausta yhtiön historiassa. Uudet Series 3 -piirit, SiXG301 ja SiXG302, valmistetaan edistyksellisellä 22 nanometrin valmistustekniikalla, mikä parantaa huomattavasti suorituskykyä, energiatehokkuutta ja integroitavuutta aiempiin sukupolviin verrattuna.
Series 3 -sarjan myötä Silicon Labs siirtyy uudelle tasolle erityisesti langattomien IoT-ratkaisujen kehittämisessä.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Wall Street Journal:
Inside a “laptop farm” run by a 50-year-old US woman that let DPRK IT workers pose as US tech staff and illegally earn $17.1M from more than 300 US companies — A LinkedIn message drew a former waitress in Minnesota into a type of intricate scam involving illegal paychecks and stolen data
North Korea Infiltrates U.S. Remote Jobs—With the Help of Everyday Americans
A LinkedIn message drew a former waitress in Minnesota into a type of intricate scam involving illegal paychecks and stolen data
https://www.wsj.com/business/north-korea-remote-jobs-e4daa727?st=Y76uav&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
Tomi Engdahl says:
Exclusive
Elon Musk says he’s “disappointed” by Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” and what it means for DOGE
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/elon-musk-disappointed-by-trump-big-beautiful-bill-doge/
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5320263-trump-tariff-trades-markets-rise/
What is the ‘TACO trade’ on Wall Street?
There’s a new trade on Wall Street: the “TACO trade,” standing for “Trump Always Chickens Out.”
The term was coined by Robert Armstrong, a writer for the Financial Times, and is intended to capture how markets have fallen on Trump’s vow to impose steep tariffs on imports to the United States and then jump back up when Trump announces pauses on those tariffs.
Most recently, Trump on Friday vowed to impose a 50 percent tariff on goods from the European Union, causing markets to fall.
On Sunday, he said he had a good call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and that he was giving the EU until July 9 to reach a deal with the U.S.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Dave Lee / Bloomberg:
Meta’s Anduril deal shows how much has changed in the past couple of years in Silicon Valley, where developing war tech was once considered a hard red line
Mark Zuckerberg Finally Found a Use for His Metaverse — War
Meta is crossing a former hard red line in Silicon Valley to develop tech for military uses.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-05-30/mark-zuckerberg-finally-found-a-use-for-his-metaverse-war
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://etn.fi/index.php/13-news/17591-pc-myynti-kasvaa-mutta-on-kaukana-huippuvuoden-lukemista
Tomi Engdahl says:
Suomen lennot voidaan jo lähitulevaisuudessa lentää sähköllä
https://etn.fi/index.php/13-news/17590-suomen-lennot-voidaan-jo-laehitulevaisuudessa-lentaeae-saehkoellae
Massachusetts Institute of Technologyn (MIT) tutkijat ovat kehittäneet uudenlaisen natrium-ilma-polttokennon, joka voi varastoida yli kolme kertaa enemmän energiaa painoyksikköä kohden kuin nykyiset litiumioniakut. Tämä läpimurto voi mahdollistaa sähkökäyttöiset lyhyen matkan lennot, ja lisäksi tarjota kevyen ja ympäristöystävällisen energiaratkaisun myös junille, laivoille ja raskaalle liikenteelle.
Sähkölentämisen yleistymistä on tähän asti rajoittanut akkujen matala energiatiheys. Tällä hetkellä parhaat sähköautojen akut yltävät noin 300 wattituntiin per kilogramma, mutta sähkölentämiseen tarvitaan vähintään 1 000 Wh/kg. MIT:n uusi polttokenno ylittää tämän kynnyksen laboratoriotesteissä, mikä avaa mahdollisuuden alueellisiin sähköisiin lentoreitteihin.
Tomi Engdahl says:
https://etn.fi/index.php/13-news/17592-pieni-siru-jaeaehdyttaeae-ssd-levyae-yli-30-prosenttia
Piilaaksolainen xMEMS Labs esittelee maailman ensimmäisen SSD:n sisälle rakennetun aktiivisen jäähdytysjärjestelmän. Uusi µCooling-teknologia voi laskea levyjen lämpötilaa jopa 30 prosenttia ilman liikkuvia osia, mahdollistaen paremman suorituskyvyn datakeskuksissa ja ohuissa kannettavissa.
Kyseessä on maailman ensimmäinen ratkaisu, joka mahdollistaa in-drive- eli suoraan levylle integroidun jäähdytyksen sekä E3.S-muotoisille yrityslevyille että NVMe M.2 -levyille kuluttajakäytössä.
Tomi Engdahl says:
Financial Times:
Sources: Chinese companies designing advanced chips for manufacturing in Taiwan, like Xiaomi, are set to be the hardest hit by new US export rules on EDA tools
https://www.ft.com/content/2b0a0000-1bf6-475a-ac96-c17212afecc2
Tomi Engdahl says:
Riley Griffin / Bloomberg:
Meta CTO Andrew Bosworth says the “tides have turned” in Silicon Valley, making it more acceptable for the tech industry to support the US military’s efforts — There’s long existed a “silent majority” who wanted to pursue defense projects, Bosworth said during an interview …
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-05/meta-s-push-into-defense-tech-reflects-cultural-shift-cto-says
Tomi Engdahl says:
Presidentti Trumpin ja teknologiamiljardööri Muskin ilmiriita sai uusia kierroksia
Trump uhkasi viedä Muskin yrityksiltä liittovaltion sopimukset, Musk Nasalta avaruusaluksen
https://www.kaleva.fi/presidentti-trumpin-ja-teknologiamiljardoori-muski/11659834
Tomi Engdahl says:
Intel sale of networks sounds like an Ericsson problem
The long-rumored sale of Intel’s network and edge assets would be hard to pull off and a likely cause of sleeplessness at Ericsson.
https://www.lightreading.com/semiconductors/intel-sale-of-networks-sounds-like-an-ericsson-problem
Tomi Engdahl says:
America announces the largest deployment in history — Meta, Amazon, and Google team up for this
https://www.ecoportal.net/en/deployment-google-meta-amazon-energy/8342/#google_vignette
$300,000,000 and 72 GW of ‘green energy’ — India’s most extreme plan could power the entire Earth
America intensifies war on China — The weapon is underground in this state
AI will be powered from space — Experts target this extremely powerful ‘extraterrestrial’ source
When we think of deployment, our minds tend to immediately turn to soldiers getting ready to go to war. In this case, where America announced the largest deployment in history, the metaphorical soldiers are some of the largest tech companies who are all teaming up for one reason: “war.” Thankfully, this war forms part of a global fight against fossil fuels, and these companies’ pledges might just be able to turn the tide and win the war.