Self driving cars failed 2020

I was had planned to do a long post on self-driving cars a quite long time. I was planning to do one this spring, but I might not do that, because it seems that predictions that self-driving cars would be here in 2020 were far too rosy. Five years ago, several companies including Nissan and Toyota promised self-driving cars in 2020. So it may be wise to take any new forecasts with a grain of salt. Hare is a worth to check out article of the current status of self-driving cars:

Surprise! 2020 Is Not the Year for Self-Driving Cars
https://spectrum.ieee.org/transportation/self-driving/surprise-2020-is-not-the-year-for-selfdriving-cars

In March, because of the coronavirus, self-driving car companies, including Argo, Aurora, Cruise, Pony, and Waymo, suspended vehicle testing and operations that involved a human driver. Around the same time, Waymo and Ford released open data sets of information collected during autonomous-vehicle tests and challenged developers to use them to come up with faster and smarter self-driving algorithms.

It seems that the self-driving car industry still hopes to make meaningful progress on autonomous vehicles (AVs) this year, but the industry is slowed by the pandemic and facing a set of very hard problems that have gotten no easier to solve over the years.

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1,960 Comments

  1. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Robottiauto voi vaatia 300 gigatavua RAM-muistia
    https://etn.fi/index.php/13-news/18698-robottiauto-voi-vaatia-300-gigatavua-ram-muistia

    Mercedes-Benz EQE:n MBUX-järjestelmä käyttää 24 gigatavua keskusmuistia pelkästään käyttöliittymän ja viihdejärjestelmän pyörittämiseen. Samalla Micron Technology arvioi, että tulevat tason 4 robottiautot voivat tarvita yli 300 gigatavua RAM-muistia. Ero kertoo siitä, kuinka nopeasti auton elektroniikka on muuttumassa hajautetuista ohjainlaitteista kohti keskitettyä tekoälylaskentaa.

    Nykyauton muistinkäyttöä tarkasteltaessa yksi konkreettinen esimerkki löytyy Mercedes-Benzin EQE-mallista. Sen MBUX-järjestelmässä keskusmuistia on 24 gigatavua, ja se on varattu käytännössä kokonaan käyttöliittymän, grafiikan, navigoinnin ja viihdejärjestelmien tarpeisiin. Toisin sanoen pelkkä kuljettajan ja matkustajien käyttämä digitaalinen käyttöliittymä toimii jo samalla muistitasolla kuin muutaman vuoden takaiset palvelimet.

    Ajotoiminnot ovat tästä erillään. Nykyautoissa kuljettajaa avustavat järjestelmät on toteutettu hajautetusti useilla ohjainlaitteilla, joista jokaisella on oma prosessorinsa ja muistinsa. Kokonaisuudessaan muistia on tyypillisesti kymmeniä gigatavuja, mutta sitä ei käsitellä yhtenä keskitettynä resurssina. Tämä arkkitehtuuri on kuitenkin muuttumassa.

    Micronin mukaan kehitys kohti tason 4 autonomisia ajoneuvoja kasvattaa muistitarpeen kertaluokkaa suuremmaksi. Yhtiön arvion mukaan muistimäärä voi nousta nykyisestä noin 16 gigatavusta yli 300 gigatavuun ajoneuvoa kohden.

    Kasvu ei johdu yksittäisestä tekijästä, vaan useiden teknisten vaatimusten yhdistelmästä.

    Reply
  2. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Andrew J. Hawkins / The Verge:
    Uber partners with China’s Pony AI and Croatia-based, Rimac-spinoff Verne to launch Europe’s first commercial robotaxi service, initially debuting in Zagreb — The companies are already testing autonomous vehicles in Croatia, where they will launch their first commercial service.

    Uber aims to launch Europe’s first robotaxi service with Pony AI and Verne
    https://www.theverge.com/transportation/900656/uber-pony-ai-verne-robotaxi-europe

    The companies are already testing autonomous vehicles in Croatia, where they will launch their first commercial service.

    Bloomberg:
    Pony AI reports 2025 revenue up 20% YoY to ~$90M, total annual losses down 72% YoY to ~$76.8M, and a $75.5M net income in Q4, its first profitable quarter ever — Pony AI Inc. delivered its first profitable quarter ever, bolstered by a windfall from an early investment, rather than its main robotaxi business.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-26/pony-ai-swings-to-profit-aims-to-launch-robotaxis-in-20-cities

    Reply
  3. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Stock Collapse
    Bank Warns of Tesla Stock Collapse
    It’s expecting the worst case scenario.
    https://futurism.com/advanced-transport/hsbc-bank-warns-tesla-stock-collapse

    Reply
  4. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Stock Collapse
    Bank Warns of Tesla Stock Collapse
    It’s expecting the worst case scenario.
    https://futurism.com/advanced-transport/hsbc-bank-warns-tesla-stock-collapse?fbclid=IwdGRjcAQ_IFVjbGNrBD8gF2V4dG4DYWVtAjExAHNydGMGYXBwX2lkDDM1MDY4NTUzMTcyOAABHplH6tKP56n0yuJj_KCQdxny75KMeX9o0DoPx8fioHptMhEHZ1kZedtt5Z47_aem_P96Hr47cUBZQ7RcEtHk-sw

    In its quest to pivot from selling EVs to AI and humanoid robots, Tesla has seen his core business get eviscerated.

    The company hit a four-year sales low in the United States earlier this year, with no signs of imminent recovery. That’s coming to bear on its share price, which is already down almost 20 percent year to date, signaling that even its notoriously die-hard investors — who have propped up its lofty valuation of well over $1 trillion while its financials have tanked — are starting to get antsy.

    Reply
  5. Tomi Engdahl says:

    “We advise investors cautiously approach this expectation within the context of both execution risk and the time value of money.”

    Predicting the Drop
    JP Morgan Concerned Tesla Stock Will Crash by 60 Percent in Face of Ongoing Business Failures
    “We advise investors cautiously approach this expectation within the context of both execution risk and the time value of money.”
    https://futurism.com/advanced-transport/jp-morgan-tesla-stock-crash-60-percent?fbclid=IwdGRjcARDVDljbGNrBENUJmV4dG4DYWVtAjExAHNydGMGYXBwX2lkDDM1MDY4NTUzMTcyOAABHhZQ6S_L-vMuruoOrzjSIkhDC_dPrW9BUJnSV-DxzTxXuwfjHXEtJO93i9Vz_aem_mFY7_OFvy5B_qXhQMFUeew

    Reply

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