Self driving cars failed 2020

I was had planned to do a long post on self-driving cars a quite long time. I was planning to do one this spring, but I might not do that, because it seems that predictions that self-driving cars would be here in 2020 were far too rosy. Five years ago, several companies including Nissan and Toyota promised self-driving cars in 2020. So it may be wise to take any new forecasts with a grain of salt. Hare is a worth to check out article of the current status of self-driving cars:

Surprise! 2020 Is Not the Year for Self-Driving Cars
https://spectrum.ieee.org/transportation/self-driving/surprise-2020-is-not-the-year-for-selfdriving-cars

In March, because of the coronavirus, self-driving car companies, including Argo, Aurora, Cruise, Pony, and Waymo, suspended vehicle testing and operations that involved a human driver. Around the same time, Waymo and Ford released open data sets of information collected during autonomous-vehicle tests and challenged developers to use them to come up with faster and smarter self-driving algorithms.

It seems that the self-driving car industry still hopes to make meaningful progress on autonomous vehicles (AVs) this year, but the industry is slowed by the pandemic and facing a set of very hard problems that have gotten no easier to solve over the years.

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1,649 Comments

  1. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Android osaa pian jakaa digitaalisia autonavaimia
    https://etn.fi/index.php/13-news/14336-android-osaa-pian-jakaa-digitaalisia-autonavaimia

    Android osaa pian jakaa digitaalisia autonavaimia

    Julkaistu: 02.12.2022

    Embedded Software

    Google on kertonut, mitä uusia ominaisuuksia Androidiin tuodaan joulukuun päivityksessä. Yksi uusista ominaisuuksia on mahdollisuus jakaa auton digitaalisia avaimia. Jako tosin onnistuu toistaiseksi vain Pixel- ja iPhone-käyttäjille.

    Avainten jako on tulossa Android 12:een ja jollakin aikataululla toki muidenkin valmistajien Android-puhelimiin. Autonvalmistajista BMW tukee viime vuonna esiteltyä tekniikkaa, mutta Google neuvottelee monien muidenkin valmistajien kanssa.

    Reply
  2. Tomi Engdahl says:

    EV Battery Chemistry and Its Impact on the Electronics Industry
    May 10, 2022
    The industry wants to know when electric cars will be available for everyone, but it’s essential to understand the limiting component to answer that question.
    https://www.electronicdesign.com/markets/automotive/article/21241459/mouser-electronics-ev-battery-chemistry-and-its-impact-on-the-electronics-industry?utm_source=EG+ED+Analog+%26+Power+Source&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CPS221121122&o_eid=7211D2691390C9R&rdx.identpull=omeda|7211D2691390C9R&oly_enc_id=7211D2691390C9R

    What you’ll learn:

    What are the barriers to wide-scale adoption of electric vehicles?
    The different types of battery alternatives.

    Electric vehicles (EVs) are surging ahead, with new startups like Byton, Canoo, and Rivian entering the arena each year to follow Tesla’s lead. In the meantime, automotive bluebloods GM and Ford have committed $7B and $11B (respectively) to defend their market-leading positions. Moreover, Europe and China paced the global markets with over one million new registrations in 2020. On top of that, the cost of EVs, long said by EV opponents to be a deal-breaking challenge, is coming down as supply ramps up. Nonetheless, significant technical and commercial challenges remain.

    The industry wants to know when electric cars will be available for everyone. It’s essential to understand the limiting component to answer that question, both from an economic and a technology perspective. The battery pack is the most expensive component in an EV, consuming 30% of the total cost to battery electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) consumers.

    Still, with vehicle demand exponentially increasing, the cost per kilowatt-hour (kWh) is exponentially decreasing, down to $137/kWh at the end of 2020. BloombergNEF estimates that at $100/kWh, electric cars will soon be at cost parity with gasoline-powered vehicles.

    Now that battery cost is on the decline, the key problems to solve are charging time and total range. Drivers expect a refueling time of around five minutes or less, which becomes the unofficial benchmark for EV charging. The battery chemistry and charging infrastructure will dictate how quickly a driver can charge an EV.

    There’s no clear choice for the best battery technology within the battery segment. Lithium-ion (Li-ion) dominates the market, but market alternatives offer exciting value propositions, including some technically superior to Li-ion.

    But if the automotive industry genuinely shifts toward electric cars, the sharp increase in battery production will create unprecedented demand for minerals to make the batteries. Because many existing battery chemistries overlap with consumer electronics, it also will significantly impact that market. As a result, there will be tension in the supply chain for competing priorities over mineral supply between the two industries at the highest level.

    The “winning” EV battery chemistry would ideally de-risk mineral supply while providing the technical and environmental benefits that EVs can deliver. Below is a review of how the leading battery alternatives affect electronics.

    One of the biggest reasons electric-vehicle manufacturers prefer lithium-ion battery technology is its high power-to-mass ratio.
    Li-ion’s energy density is more than 2.5X greater than both NMH and lead-acid batteries.

    While Li-ion is the standard for all-electric vehicles (AEVs), NMH is better suited for hybrid electric (HEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Though NMH has a better lifecycle than Li-ion or lead-acid, the chemistry brings its share of tradeoffs.

    Solid-State Electrolytes

    The clear winner for liquid-state electrolytes is Li-ion, especially with the percentage of BEVs likely to substantially increase in the coming years. But Li-ion is sensitive to cost swings due to market movement and reshuffling, along with skyrocketing demand.

    In addition, there’s an opportunity to improve the top safety concern of flammable liquid catching fire.

    Solid-state batteries (comprised of lithium metal) address the most pressing safety challenges of Li-ion using essentially the same chemistry. Solid-state technology utilizes a solid disc electrolyte, whereas Li-ion employs a liquid. Long thought by many engineers and materials scientists to be the long-term solution for EVs, devices like pacemakers, radio-frequency identification (RFID), and wearables already use solid-state technology.

    Solid-state batteries are more stable, have a higher energy density than the already high-density Li-ion, come from readily available materials, offer lower flammability and faster charging, and improve and extend the performance range of EV batteries. For these reasons, solid-state batteries seem like the future.

    Reply
  3. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Addressing Total Cost of Ownership of Electric Vehicles
    Dec. 8, 2022
    This presentation takes a look at details like battery chemistry, bidirectional charging, and battery as a service (BaaS) as ways to reduce the total cost of ownership of an EV.
    https://www.electronicdesign.com/markets/automotive/video/21255761/analog-devices-addressing-total-cost-of-ownership-of-electric-vehicles?utm_source=EG+ED+Analog+%26+Power+Source&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CPS221201041&o_eid=7211D2691390C9R&rdx.identpull=omeda|7211D2691390C9R&oly_enc_id=7211D2691390C9R

    Reply
  4. Tomi Engdahl says:

    https://etn.fi/index.php/13-news/14351-yksi-piiri-ratkaisee-auton-tutkaongelmat

    Autonomisessa ajamisessa on monia haasteita, joista pienin ei ole se laskentakapasiteetti, mitä tarvitaan kamera-, tutka-, lidar- ja ultraääniantureiden tuottaman datan prosessointiin. Piilaaksolainen Ambarella esittää elegantiksi ratkaisuksi uutta Oculii-ohjelmistoaan. Sitä ajetaan keskitetysti yhdellä CV3-tekoälyprosessorilla.

    Oculii-tutkaohjelmisto ja erittäin tehokkaat 5 nanometrin prosessissa valmistetut CV3 AI -toimialueen ohjausjärjestelmät mahdollistavat 4D-raakakuvatutkatietojen käsittelyn ja fuusion keskitetystä laskentayksikössä ensimmäistä kertaa.

    CV3-prosessori tukee eri anturituloja, kuten kamerat, lidar ja ultraääni. Oculii-algoritmit esimerkiksi mukauttavat tutkan aaltomuodot dynaamisesti ympäröivään ympäristöön. Tuloksena on 0,5 asteen kulmaresoluutio ja erittäin tarkka kuvaus eli ns. pistepilvi ympäristöstä – jopa kymmeniä tuhansia pisteitä per kuva – ja pitkän tunnistusalue, joka yltää jopa 500 metriä kauemmaksi.

    Reply
  5. Tomi Engdahl says:

    https://etn.fi/index.php/13-news/14352-autojen-kamerat-vaativat-jo-huippunopeaa-siirtokaistaa

    Kun kameroiden määrä ja niiden resoluutio autoissa kasvaa, tuotetun kameradatan siirto auton tietokoneeseen vaatii yhä laajemman kaistan. VSI on nyt esitellyt markkinoiden ensimmäisen standardinmukaisen SerDes-piirin, joka tukee uusinta ASA Motion Link -väylästandardia.

    ASA-järjestön (Automotive SerDes Alliance) Motion Link -väylä yltää 16 gigabitin sekuntinopeuteen. VSI:n VS775-piiri on ensimmäinen, joka kykenee siirtämään ajoneuvon kameroilta tulevan raakadatan tällä nopeudella auton elektroniikka- eli ECU-yksikköön.

    VSI esitteli uuden tuotteensa suorituskykyä ja vakautta järjestämällä live-esittelyn EIPATD 2022:ssa (IEEE Ethernet IP & Automotive Technology Day 2022), joka pidettiin Japanin Yokohamassa marraskuussa.

    Reply
  6. Tomi Engdahl says:

    How Sensors are Changing the Automotive User Experience
    Dec. 8, 2022
    While sensor tech can be found in many devices, the automotive industry has yet to follow in a significant manner due to several concerns. However, applying this technology, if done ethically, could greatly enhance safety and user experience.
    https://www.electronicdesign.com/markets/automotive/article/21256090/invensense-a-tdk-group-company-how-sensors-are-changing-the-automotive-user-experience?utm_source=EG+ED+Analog+%26+Power+Source&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CPS221201042&o_eid=7211D2691390C9R&rdx.identpull=omeda|7211D2691390C9R&oly_enc_id=7211D2691390C9R

    What you’ll learn:

    How sensors in cars could enhance usability and safety.
    Why privacy concerns have halted such implementation.

    Sensor technology is becoming incredibly sophisticated and increasingly affordable. Sensors are typically added to human interfaces and, when combined with machine learning (ML), make systems or devices more aware of what the human is doing, about to do, or has just done. Sensors also are aware of what’s going on around a device or user. However, a growing constraint is potential societal concerns about privacy and liability that may ultimately limit sensor development and use.

    Reply
  7. Tomi Engdahl says:

    More miles, fewer wires in future electric vehicles
    https://news.ti.com/blog/2021/01/06/more-miles-fewer-wires-in-future-electric-vehicles?HQS=sys-null-null-ve_autobrand_ve22_fewer_wires-asset-blog-ElectronicDesign_pve_ve_bms_layer_1-wwe_int&DCM=yes&dclid=CI-59Y3S8_sCFbtEHgId6lgGPA

    Going wireless with the next generation of battery management systems (BMS) removes heavy communications cabling from inside EVs to help improve driving range and reliability

    When we create new solutions for wireless battery management systems for electric vehicles (EVs), our customers can design EVs that are lighter, go farther on a single charge and meet the highest level of functional safety standards to improve reliability.

    Reply
  8. Tomi Engdahl says:

    How an accidental discovery made this year could change the world
    A lucky discovery involving lithium-sulfur batteries has a legitimate chance to revolutionize how we power our world.
    https://bigthink.com/the-future/lithium-sulfur-batteries/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1670755327

    Reply
  9. Tomi Engdahl says:

    U.S. Signs Non-Binding MOU to Make Trucks and Buses All-Electric by 2040
    Dec. 5, 2022
    https://www.electronicdesign.com/markets/automotive/article/21255827/electronic-design-us-signs-nonbinding-mou-to-make-trucks-and-buses-allelectric-by-2040?utm_source=EG+ED+Analog+%26+Power+Source&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CPS221209011&o_eid=7211D2691390C9R&rdx.identpull=omeda|7211D2691390C9R&oly_enc_id=7211D2691390C9R

    At COP27, the U.S. announced it would sign a Global Memorandum of Understanding on Zero-Emission Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles (MHDVs). MHDVs represent 10% of vehicles on the road in the U.S. but contribute 28% of total on-road greenhouse-gas emissions.

    Reply
  10. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Meghan Bobrowsky / Wall Street Journal:
    As Tesla’s stock drops ~60% in 2022, on pace for its worst year on record, investors criticize Elon Musk’s involvement in Twitter and his lack of focus on Tesla

    Tesla Investors Voice Concern Over Elon Musk’s Focus on Twitter
    Supporters of Tesla and Musk are asking questions about who is running the electric-vehicle maker
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-investors-voice-concern-over-elon-musks-focus-on-twitter-11670948786?mod=djemalertNEWS

    The chorus of Tesla Inc. TSLA -2.58% individual investors expressing misgivings that Chief Executive Elon Musk ‘s involvement with Twitter Inc. may be to the detriment of the electric-vehicle maker is getting louder, with the car company’s stock on track for its worst full-year performance.

    “There is no TSLA CEO today,” Gary Black, managing partner of the Future Fund LLC, which owns roughly $50 million worth of Tesla, tweeted Monday.

    Mr. Black voiced frustration after another sharp selloff in Tesla’s stock Monday. Shares in the world’s largest car company by market value fell more than 6% in Monday trading after a tumultuous weekend for Mr. Musk on Twitter, including the billionaire taking aim at the company’s former head of trust and safety; calling for the prosecution of top U.S. government medical adviser Anthony Fauci; and criticizing people who offer their pronouns without being asked.

    Mr. Black said, “The market voted today that the $TSLA brand has been negatively impacted by the Twitter drama. Where before EV buyers were proud to drive their Teslas to their friends or show off Teslas in their driveways, now the Twitter controversy is hurting Tesla’s brand equity.”

    “There is nothing wrong at tesla at all. Other than the CEO working at another company, certainly tesla deserves a focused ceo. It would be helpful to know what Elon’s plans are.”

    Tesla shares are down 54.31% this year through Tuesday’s close, putting it on pace for their worst year on record.

    The Tesla boss on Tuesday tweeted: “Tesla will be great long-term, but doesn’t control macroeconomic tides.” He later added “I will make sure Tesla shareholders benefit from Twitter long-term,” but didn’t offer details.

    Reply
  11. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Jay Peters / The Verge:
    Tesla rolls out an update, adding support for Steam on 2022 Model S and Model X vehicles or newer with 16GB of RAM, Apple Music, upgraded Light Show, and more

    Tesla’s latest update adds Steam games and Apple Music
    https://www.theverge.com/2022/12/13/23508269/tesla-holiday-update-steam-apple-music-support-light-show-mode

    The new features are included in Tesla’s ‘Holiday Update,’ which the company says is rolling out now.

    Tesla’s new “Holiday Update” adds a few long-awaited new features, including the ability to play games from Steam in your car and support for Apple Music.

    Tesla already offers a bunch of games for owners like Cuphead and Stardew Valley, and the official addition of Steam doesn’t come as a total surprise, as CEO Elon Musk tweeted that the company was “making progress” with a Steam integration in July. But now that Steam for Tesla is finally here, owners could have a lot more games available to them.

    Tesla says Steam will be available on “new” Model S and X vehicles, and Tesla has reportedly clarified that in release notes to mean S and X cars from model year 2022 or newer with 16GB of RAM. The company says that Steam brings “thousands” of games to its cars, and while we’ll have to wait and see which ones work best, Tesla’s promotional video heavily features Cyberpunk 2077.

    Reply
  12. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Turning Road Bumps into Electricity for EVs
    Dec. 12, 2022
    Two very different companies, Gig Performance and BMW, have found ways to harness a car’s vertical wheel movement from vibrations and bumps in the road and route this energy back to the battery, where it’s stored as electrical energy.
    https://www.electronicdesign.com/markets/automotive/article/21256253/electronic-design-turning-road-bumps-into-electricity-for-evs?utm_source=EG+ED+Analog+%26+Power+Source&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CPS221209012&o_eid=7211D2691390C9R&rdx.identpull=omeda|7211D2691390C9R&oly_enc_id=7211D2691390C9R

    Reply
  13. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Rekkakuski lyttää Teslan uutuuden: “Täydellisen tyhmä ajoneuvo”
    Tesla luovutti äskettäin ensimmäiset Semi-nimiset rekkanuppinsa ensimmäisille asiakkaille. Kaikki ammattikuljettajat eivät ole laitteesta kovin viehtyneitä.
    https://www.iltalehti.fi/autouutiset/a/ec52a8cb-f6f0-4c0f-b2b3-40fa7a0ad1b0

    Teslan Semi -rekkaveturin ensimmäiset asiakasautot toimitettiin muutama viikko sitten, ja esimerkiksi virvoitusjuomajätti Pepsi otti vastaan ensimmäiset täyssähköiset nupit parisen viikkoa sitten. Tesla Semin piti olla tuotantovalmis jo vuonna 2019, mutta muutamat pikkuviivästykset sen kohdalla ovat venyttäneet tuotantoon saapumista.

    Muutamien mielestä koko tuote olisi saanut jäädä syntymättä. Puolalainen toimittaja, bloggari, podcast-isäntä ja rekkakuski Tomasz Oryński nimittäin lataa yhteisöpalvelu Twitterissä melkoisen laidallisen mielipiteitä uutuudesta ja varsinkin sen erikoisista ratkaisuista.

    Reply
  14. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Elon Musk Has Now Sold $22.9 Billion In Tesla Shares Since Buying Twitter—And Dragged Down Tesla’s Market Cap By $700 Billion In The Process
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2022/12/15/elon-musk-has-now-sold-229-billion-in-tesla-shares-since-buying-twitter-and-dragged-down-teslas-market-cap-by-700-billion-in-the-process/?utm_campaign=forbes&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_term=Gordie&sh=78b2597668b6

    Elon Musk’s latest multibillion-dollar unloading of Tesla shares brings his total sales in stock of the automaker he leads as CEO to over $20 billion since he bought Twitter in April, as he continues to focus his time and resources on the social media platform, much to the dismay of Tesla investors.

    Musk sold about $3.6 billion in Tesla shares between Monday and Wednesday, according to Securities and Exchange Commission filings.

    He’s now sold $22.93 billion in Tesla stock over four separate selloff rounds beginning April 26, a day after he agreed to take over Twitter at a $44 billion valuation.

    And Tesla shares have tanked ever since, declining 59% in the period, compared to a 13% dip for the S&P 500.

    Tesla has now lost $705 billion in market capitalization since Musk first disclosed he took a 9% stake in Twitter on April 4, declining from $1.2 trillion to $495 billion

    “The Twitter nightmare continues as Musk uses Tesla as his own ATM machine to keep funding the red ink at Twitter,”

    Reply
  15. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Explaining the Sensor Suite in a Self-Driving Car
    Dec. 16, 2022
    In this video, a TI engineer at electronica 2022 explains the various sensors that are deployed in a vehicle in order for it to be able to drive itself.
    https://www.electronicdesign.com/technologies/embedded-revolution/video/21256346/electronic-design-explaining-the-sensor-suite-in-a-selfdriving-car

    Reply
  16. Tomi Engdahl says:

    PXI BMS Test System Steers Toward Automotive Power Management
    Dec. 15, 2022
    Effective testing of battery-management systems (BMS) is a critical aspect of automotive performance verification.
    https://www.electronicdesign.com/technologies/test-measurement/video/21256353/electronic-design-pxi-bms-test-system-addresses-advanced-automotive-power-management

    Reply
  17. Tomi Engdahl says:

    The Ford F-150 Lightning base model is now 40% more expensive than its original launch price due to rising materials costs and ongoing supply chain issues, Ford says.

    Ford Raises Price on F-150 Lightning EV Pickup Truck for Third Time in 2022
    The Ford F-150 Lightning base model is now 40% more expensive than its original launch price due to rising materials costs and ongoing supply chain issues, Ford says.
    https://uk.pcmag.com/cars-auto/144423/ford-raises-price-on-f-150-lightning-ev-pickup-truck-for-third-time-in-2022

    Reply
  18. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Apple’s first car effort might not be self-driving after all
    https://techcrunch.com/2022/12/06/apples-first-car-delayed-until-2026-wont-be-self-driving/

    Apple has talked a big game about its future plans to break into the automotive market. But a report from Bloomberg says that Apple has had to scale back its plans. Last year, reports indicated that Apple would debut a fully self-driving car in 2025, but now, the vehicle is delayed until 2026 and will not be autonomous.

    Apple sought to build the first completely autonomous vehicle, without the need for a steering wheel or pedals. But according to the report, engineers working on the project (known internally as Titan) no longer think that vision is possible with current technology.

    Apple has experienced a number of executive shakeups on the Titan team, which could have influenced this delay. Last year, Ford Motor snagged Doug Field, the engineering executive who was in charge of this special projects team at Apple. A few months before that, several other key players on the Titan project departed the company.

    Reply
  19. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Rebecca Bellan / TechCrunch:
    TuSimple confirms plans to lay off 25% of its workforce, or an estimated 350 workers, following a rough year for the self-driving trucking company

    Self-driving truck company TuSimple to lay off 25% of workforce
    https://techcrunch.com/2022/12/21/self-driving-truck-company-tusimple-to-lay-off-25-of-workforce/

    Reply
  20. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Wired vs. Wireless Communications in EV Battery Management
    This paper explores the increased importance of battery management systems in electric vehicles and examines the benefits and challenges of both wired and wireless battery management systems.

    https://www.ti.com/lit/wp/slyy197/slyy197.pdf?HQS=sys-auto-hevp-ve_autobrand_ve21_wbms-agg-whip-ElectronicDesign_ve-wwe&ts=1671729505674

    Reply
  21. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Turning Road Bumps into Electricity for EVs
    Dec. 12, 2022
    Two very different companies, Gig Performance and BMW, have found ways to harness a car’s vertical wheel movement from vibrations and bumps in the road and route this energy back to the battery, where it’s stored as electrical energy.
    https://www.electronicdesign.com/markets/automotive/article/21256253/electronic-design-turning-road-bumps-into-electricity-for-evs?utm_source=EG+ED+Auto+Electronics&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CPS221212110&o_eid=7211D2691390C9R&rdx.identpull=omeda|7211D2691390C9R&oly_enc_id=7211D2691390C9R

    Reply
  22. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Explaining the Sensor Suite in a Self-Driving Car
    Dec. 16, 2022
    In this video, a TI engineer at electronica 2022 explains the various sensors that are deployed in a vehicle in order for it to be able to drive itself.
    https://www.electronicdesign.com/technologies/embedded-revolution/video/21256346/electronic-design-explaining-the-sensor-suite-in-a-selfdriving-car?utm_source=EG+ED+Auto+Electronics&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CPS221212110&o_eid=7211D2691390C9R&rdx.identpull=omeda|7211D2691390C9R&oly_enc_id=7211D2691390C9R

    Reply
  23. Tomi Engdahl says:

    New Hybrid Lenses Built for Autonomous Driving and Driver Monitoring
    Dec. 22, 2022
    New lenses developed by LG Innotek for its automotive systems have both plastic and glass applied inside them, rather than just glass, to prevent structural deformation due to alteration in temperature or external forces.
    https://www.electronicdesign.com/markets/automotive/article/21256883/electronic-design-new-hybrid-lenses-built-for-autonomous-driving-and-driver-monitoring

    Cameras are key components of autonomous-driving and driver-recognition solutions as they help detect the driver’s movements. The camera lenses employed are mounted in camera modules. In Europe, all vehicles are recommended to be equipped with driver monitoring systems (DMS) after 2025.

    LG Innotek, headquartered in Seoul, Korea, has developed new lenses for DMS and advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) applications. What distinguishes them is that the company applied plastic and glass inside the lens, while other lenses use only glass to prevent structural deformation due to alteration in temperature or external forces. The high-performance hybrid lenses have reduced size and thickness, and it’s claimed that they’re price competitive with existing products in the market.

    Reply
  24. Tomi Engdahl says:

    With 2030 targets for transitioning to EVs fast approaching, policymakers are wrestling with how best to incentivize consumers and automakers to accelerate the pace of the transition now to have any hope of achieving goals set out by governments and NGOs.

    The EV Transition Explained: How to Meet Sales Targets? Policymakers differ on how to incentivize automakers and consumers
    https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-ev-transition-explained-2658797662?share_id=7345069&socialux=facebook&utm_campaign=RebelMouse&utm_content=IEEE+Spectrum&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook

    With less than eight years for the United States to meet the objective of a 50-percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, many environmental advocacy groups argue that an even faster transition to EVs is mandatory. For instance, the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) estimates that 1-in-4 light-duty vehicles, or about 70 million EVs, must be on US roads by 2030 to meet the GHG reduction target. The latest Edison Electric Institute projection is that only about 26.4 million EVs will likely be on the roads by then, although some others estimate the number could be as high as 35 million. However, that is still far short of RMI’s 70 million target.

    To accelerate EV uptake, the Zero Emission Transportation Association, a lobbying group formed by Tesla, Lucid and Rivian along with some EV charging suppliers, asserts that sales of new internal combustion vehicles must be banned by 2030 and diesel trucks by 2035. Greenpeace, agrees, and argues that sales of all diesel and petrol vehicles, including hybrids must end by 2030. In addition, gasoline vehicles 15 years or older and diesel trucks over 10 years old should not be allowed on US roads, as is happening in some Indian cities.

    There is also a push to make those who own SUVs pay a steep annual registration fee to discourage their ownership

    The 50 percent GHG emission reduction target by 2030 is indeed entirely possible according to a report from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. This can be accomplished by building upon the above EV and ICE vehicle policy recommendations, coupled with 100 percent methane capture, retiring all coal-fired electric generation as well as converting the US electric grid with 80 percent clean energy by 2030. A coordinated effort by US policy makers is all that is preventing this happening, the report states.

    Even if California does meet its 2025 mark, more than 400 charging ports would still have to be installed every day to meet the 2030 objective.

    Automakers divided
    Automakers are also split over governmental EV policies in the U.S. and elsewhere. As mentioned, pure EV automakers and EV charging companies would like ICE vehicles to be banned by 2030 in the U.S., for obvious reasons. GM, too, is in favor of an accelerated EV mandate, believing this gives the automaker a commercial advantage over its rivals. GM wants the US Environmental Protection Administration (EPA) to make the Administration’s aspirational 50 percent EV sales goal by 2030 a national mandate instead.

    However, automakers like Stellantis and Toyota are not enthralled with current EV mandates or the proposed outright bans of ICE vehicle sales.

    Toyoda also argues that only selling EV powertrains would not serve Toyota’s customers well in other countries, a similar argument made by automakers BMW, Mazda and VW.

    One issue that all automakers can agree on is that the new US electric vehicle incentives need revision.

    “I don’t think that you can transform the mineral production and extraction within the next two to three years. You cannot change the sources from Congo, China and other places within two to three years.” —Pablo Di Si

    Automakers had previously agreed they could meet the Biden Administration’s 2030 EV sales objectives, providing there are substantial subsidies given to potential EV buyers. However, under the current incentive scheme, automakers say it will be nearly impossible to meet the content requirements. The Alliance for Automotive Innovation, which represents GM, VW and other major automakers warns the credit structure likely will “jeopardize our collective target of 40-50% electric vehicle sales by 2030.”

    GM’s CEO Mary Barra says she expects that its EVs will qualify for the full $7,500 tax credit within the next two to three years. If they do not, GM’s $50 billion in projected future revenue and healthy profit margins from EVs will be at risk. Ford, which has previously stated before the new content rules that it did not expect its EV business to be fully profitable until model year 2025, may also need to redo its profitability calculations. Rising EV battery prices do not help. It is undoubtedly one reason that Ford, along with other automakers, is lobbying fervently for a liberal interpretation of the EV content requirements.

    Consumer subsidies, industry incentives or both?
    However, not everyone is sympathetic to the automakers’ plight. Some believe, as US Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) famously stated, corporate EV incentives are “ludicrous”: If EVs are so much better than ICE vehicles, and there are year-long waiting lists to buy them, why do automakers need incentives to sell them?

    The multitude of arguments and counter arguments over EV subsidies and incentives, their focus, efficacy and fairness illustrate just a small part of the conflicts, uncertainty and politics involved in EV policy making.

    Other observers contend that EV incentives are misdirected or misplaced altogether. For instance, a National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) study indicates past incentives seemed to cannibalize fuel-efficient vehicles, leading to over-estimating emissions benefits supposedly gained by EVs by almost 40 percent. A Massachusetts government-sponsored study of the effects of the more than $50 million of EV subsidies the state doled out found that they did not influence EV buyers—they would most likely have bought one anyway.

    World Bank data indicate that funding EV charging station expansion is more cost-effective than EV purchasing subsidies to getting people into EVs. The UK has gone this route, stopping its decade-long EV subsidy program to improve EV charging across the country instead.

    There are also concerns of what happens to EV demand if subsidies are stopped. China, which originally planned to stop EV subsidies at the end of 2020, extended the program to the end of 2023 based on a drop-off in EV sales. The UK decision to end subsidies has not gone without complaint, either.

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  25. Tomi Engdahl says:

    This Mark Cuban-backed $110 million startup wants to make charging EVs like ordering takeout
    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/22/sparkcharge-startup-aims-to-make-charging-your-ev-easier-than-takeout.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_content=Intl&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1671728933

    “You can select the time, the place, choose your vehicle, how much range you want, and with the push of a button it gets brought to you,” Aviv, the company’s 30-year-old co-founder and CEO, tells CNBC Make It. “So, the same way that you would order food from Uber Eats or GrubHub is the same way that you can now have energy brought to your vehicle.”

    Reply
  26. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Ricardo Cano / San Francisco Chronicle:
    A new California law effectively bans dealers and carmakers like Tesla from “deceptively naming or marketing” semi-autonomous vehicles as full self-driving

    New California law effectively bans Tesla from advertising its cars as Full Self-Driving
    https://www.sfchronicle.com/tech/article/New-California-law-effectively-bans-Tesla-from-17672908.php

    A Tesla with Full Self-Driving software was reportedly responsible for causing an eight-car crash on the Bay Bridge on Thanksgiving that injured 18 people after the car abruptly stopped.

    But, starting next year, Tesla will effectively be banned from advertising its vehicles as Full Self-Driving under a new law signed by Gov. Gavin Newsom this legislative session.

    Senate Bill 1398 is among the hundreds of new state laws taking effect in 2023 and specifically targets the electric-car maker’s marketing of software included in some Tesla models that imply that the car can fully drive itself — which it can’t.

    The state Department of Motor Vehicles, which regulates autonomous vehicles, already had rules banning the false advertisement of self-driving cars. However, Gonzalez told the Los Angeles Times in August that the DMV’s lack of enforcement prompted her and state legislators to advance the bill to enshrine the rules into state law.

    This bill “increases consumer safety by requiring dealers and manufacturers that sell new passenger vehicles equipped with a semiautonomous driving assistance feature… to give a clear description of the functions and limitations of those features,” Gonzalez said in a statement as the bill made its way through the Legislature.

    California’s new law does not address safety aspects of the Tesla software, though it’s the latest example of legislators, regulators and consumers pushing back on advertising they say is deceptive and misleading.

    According to a legislative analysis of the new California law, Waymo, one of the companies the state permits to test and operate autonomous vehicles, stopped describing its vehicles as self-driving in 2021, citing confusion among drivers caused by Tesla’s advertising.

    Reply
  27. Tomi Engdahl says:

    28 prosenttia uusista autoista kulkee sähköllä
    https://etn.fi/index.php/13-news/14422-28-prosenttia-uusista-autoista-kulkee-saehkoellae

    Euroopassa rekisteröitiin marraskuussa hieman yli miljoona uutta henkilöautoa. Eniten kasvoi hybridi- ja täyssähköisten myynti. Niiden osuus kaikista myydyistä oli 28 prosenttia, kertoo JATO Dynamics.

    Marraskuussa täyssähköisten autojen myynti kasvoi Teslan, Volkswagenin, BMW:n, Mercedesin ja Audin voimalla vuodentakaisesta 30 prosenttia. Täyssähköisiä myytiin 172 600 kappaletta eli 17,1 prosenttia kaikista ajoneuvoista.

    Marraskuussa Tesla kasvatti myyntiään Euroopassa 93 prosenttia. Sen osuus Euroopassa myydyistä sähköautoista kasvoi 18,9 prosenttiin. JATO Dynamicsin analyytikoiden mukaan Tesla on uusista kilpailijoista huolimatta yhä vahvempi merkki Euroopassa.

    Reply
  28. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Tesla-kupla puhkeamassa Yhdysvalloissa? Käytettyjen hinnat romahtavat vauhdilla
    https://www.iltalehti.fi/autouutiset/a/f24472a5-fd6c-47da-9b59-6b0e4f3b8e9f

    Uudenkarheiden Teslojen hintakupla pihisee nyt pahasti ainakin Yhdysvalloissa. Jenkkisähköautojen jälleenmyyntiarvot putoavat nopeammin kuin muiden käytettyjen autojen.

    Uutistoimisto Reutersin saamien laskelmien ja asiasta uutisoineen Automotive Newsin mukaan vähän käytettyjen Teslojen hinnat putoavat nyt rajusti Yhdysvalloissa. Vielä tovi sitten uuden, vasta kaupasta ulos talutetun Teslan saattoi kaupitella sievoisellakin voitolla, mutta nyt kalifornialaismerkin jälleenmyyntiarvot putoavat nopeammin kuin muiden valmistajien.

    Tesla used-car price bubble pops, weighs on new-car demand
    Prices of used Teslas are falling faster than those of other automakers and the EVs are languishing on dealer lots longer.
    https://www.autonews.com/retail/tesla-used-car-price-bubble-pops-weighs-new-car-demand

    Reply
  29. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Uskomatonta mutta totta: Teslan mallisto markkinoiden toiseksi vanhin – takana vain Lada
    Modernina pidetyn sähköautovalmistajan mallien keski-ikä on huimat 7,8 vuotta.
    https://www.iltalehti.fi/sahkoautot/a/b9937f1b-5c5c-4b4d-88ef-2150a2fd63af

    Venäläisellä Ladalla ei pyyhi kovin lujaa, kun katsotaan malliston keski-ikää. Motor1:n laskujen mukaan Ladan mallit ovat keskimäärin 18,9 vuotta vanhoja. Painolastina toimvat vuonna 1998 esitelty Niva ja 1977 esitelty 4×4.

    Seuraavaksi vanhimmat mallistot löytyvät amerikkalaiselta Teslalta ja Intialaiselta Mahindralta, kummallakin 7,8 vuotta. Vertailussa oli mukana 30 valmistajaa.

    Teslan tapauksessa sijoittumista painaa melko paljon käytetty metodologia. Auton ikä on laskettu julkistuksesta, ei esittelystä. Näin laskien esimerkiksi vanhin malli Model S on vuodelta 2009, vaikka toimitukset asiakkaille alkoivat vasta kolme vuotta myöhemmin.

    Reply
  30. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Level 3 Autonomous Vehicles: Regulators Can’t Keep Up with the Tech
    Jan. 24, 2022
    All of the recent technical developments notwithstanding, autonomous driving is still considered an emerging technology. Here’s what the major automotive players are doing on both sides of the pond.
    https://www.electronicdesign.com/markets/automotive/article/21214818/electronic-design-level-3-autonomous-vehicles-regulators-cant-keep-up-with-the-tech?utm_source=EG+ED+Auto+Electronics&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CPS221222031&o_eid=7211D2691390C9R&rdx.identpull=omeda|7211D2691390C9R&oly_enc_id=7211D2691390C9R

    What you’ll learn:

    Approval and the details surrounding Mercedes’ Drive Pilot self-driving system.
    Polestar’s and BMW’s latest Level 3 automotive efforts.
    Level 3 projects from U.S. automakers GM, Tesla, and Lucid Motors.

    Reply
  31. Tomi Engdahl says:

    Inside Mobileye’s EyeQ Ultra Chip for Future Self-Driving Cars
    Jan. 19, 2022
    Mobileye CEO Amnon Shashua said that, while it looks less potent than chips from rivals Qualcomm and NVIDIA, the EyeQ Ultra chip has more than enough computing power to control a self-driving vehicle.
    https://www.electronicdesign.com/markets/automotive/article/21214183/electronic-design-inside-mobileyes-eyeq-ultra-chip-for-the-future-of-selfdriving-cars?utm_source=EG+ED+Auto+Electronics&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CPS221222031&o_eid=7211D2691390C9R&rdx.identpull=omeda|7211D2691390C9R&oly_enc_id=7211D2691390C9R

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