AI And Economic Productivity Expect Evolution Not Revolution – IEEE Spectrum

Many analysts have lately been asserting that AI-enabled technologies will dramatically increase economic output. Accenture claims that by 2035 AI will double growth rates for 12 developed countries and increase labor productivity by as much as a third. PwC claims that AI will add $15.7 trillion to the global economy by 2030, while McKinsey projects a $13 trillion boost by that time.

If true, they create a powerful incentive for companies to pursue AI. But are these predictions really valid?

It seems that there is more hype than reality in many AI claims. It seems that many of McKinsey’s estimates were just made up by extrapolating from bold claims made by various startups.

This article investigates how well many hyped AI startups are really doing. It seems that many are not nowhere nearly as valuable to society as all the hype would suggest.

So will AI bring those hyped substantial economic gains?

It seems that the answer is not. After reading this data it’s very hard for me to feel confident that any of the AI startups examined will provide the expected boost over the next decade. Similar pessimism is also starting to emerge from normally cheery business publications.

The most promising areas for rapid gains in productivity are likely to be found in robotic process automation for white-collar workers, continuing a trend that has existed for decades with gradual improvements.

Be a realist: Expect Evolution Not Revolution (EENR)

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